The Real Economy Is Weak And Fiscal Policy Is Positive.

GDP in the 3 quarter was 6.9% year-on-year, down slightly compared with the 2 quarter.

From the substitution index of solid investment, cement crude steel output, social consumption and commodity trade surplus, the fixed capital formation in the 3 quarter is still in the doldrums, consumer demand is generally stable, and external demand is weakening.

In addition, the 3 quarter economic growth may also be subject to the additional impact of the de stocking of stocks, which is affected by the turbulence and pessimism in the stock market.

In September, the growth rate of government public expenditure was further increased to 26.9%, an increase of 1 percentage points over August.

In the three quarter, public expenditure increased by nearly 10 percentage points over the two quarter. When considering the government fund expenditure, the growth of government expenditure has recovered to the level of the first half of 2014.

On the whole, finance is still relatively positive.

And spending through the CDB is accelerating, but the PPP mode is still difficult to promote.

Considering that external demand is temporarily difficult to improve, overcapacity in traditional industries will continue to inhibit investment in manufacturing industry, and sales of commercial housing will pick up poorly for development investment, and sales rebound will not continue.

9, since October, the price of agricultural products has seen a rapid downward trend.

In major grain products, corn prices dropped by about 17%, and wheat prices fell by nearly 5%.

In general, domestic grain prices have entered a long-term downward channel, coupled with the integration of the urban and rural labor market, which will substantially reduce the central level of CPI in the next few years.

The price of grain descends, the prices of live pigs fall, the labor market is slack, and the prices of family services and processing and maintenance services in CPI gradually descend, causing inflation pressure to dissipate in general and the risk of deflation gradually rising.

Recent high frequency

Since October, the consumption of coal in the 6 major power generating groups has continued to decline year by year, and the downward speed of rebar prices has slowed down, and the price of cement under seasonal influence is basically stable.

The absolute value of commercial housing sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities is still at a relatively high level.

Affected by the high inventory and the pformation of real estate enterprises, real estate investment is still declining. The real estate investment growth in September is -2.8%.

In the first ten days of October, prices of means of production in circulation were basically stable.

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The incentive to postpone raising interest rates also rebounded slightly in early October, but the overall rebound was weak.

Since the beginning of this month, the South China precious metals index has rebounded by about 4%, and the price of energy, industrial metals and agricultural products has been basically unchanged.

Global demand is sluggish and industrial growth is still declining, which is still a big constraint on industrial commodity futures prices.

In the three quarter, China's industrial added value increased by 5.9%, down 0.4 percentage points over the two quarter.

China's demand decline has been gradually pmitted through international trade, and some Southeast Asian countries are also being negatively affected by China's weak domestic demand.

In 2014, Australia, Korea and Japan accounted for 35%, 25% and 20% of total exports to China, respectively.

Over the past ten years, Asian countries' exports to China have increased by about 20%.

In 8 and September this year, Taiwan, Korea and Japan exported to China -20.5%, -5.1% and -4.6% respectively.

On the whole, commodities are still facing the predicament of insufficient demand and overcapacity. The improvement of some enterprises' production is limited, and commodities will remain in a weak position.