What Does The Central Bank Want To Do Again?

In recent days, the successive actions of the central bank have attracted the attention of the market.

Specifically, in October 21st, the central bank launched a medium-term lending facility for 11 financial institutions, totaling about 105 billion 500 million yuan.

In October 23rd, the central bank again announced the implementation of the "double down" action.

As a result, coupled with the central bank's "double down" measures, in fact, since June this year, the central bank has conducted three "double down" action, and its intensity and frequency also exceeded the expectations of the market.

Taking a look at the "double down" action of the current central bank, the specific benchmark interest rate for the one-year deposit and loan has been cut by 0.25% since the 24 of this month, and the reserve requirement rate has been cut by 0.5%.

At the same time, the central bank in this "double down" action, also stressed the emphasis on commercial banks and rural financial institutions no longer set the upper limit of deposit interest rate floating.

In this regard, through the central bank's "double down" action, in fact, it also released the domestic interest rate liberalization process to speed up the signal again.

Up to now, China's interest rate marketization process has basically reached a phased target task.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that before the central bank announced "double down" again, the relatively inferior economic data actually accelerated the central bank's "fierce strokes" attack.

Among them, the data released recently showed that China's GDP data in the three quarter of this year grew by only 6.9%, representing the first growth rate of less than 7% since the second quarter of 2009.

At this point, under the influence of relatively weak economic data, in fact, it also indicates that the downward pressure on China's economy is still relatively large, and it also strengthens our country's economic growth expectations in the fourth quarter.

In this regard, the central bank's three degree "double drop" actually adapted to this expected demand.

At present, the A share market is basically at a stage of gradual warming, and the market is only a step away from the pre stressed areas.

In this regard, whether the market can be driven by the external force of "double reduction" to achieve the purpose of customs clearance has attracted wide attention.

For now, the internal and external market environment of A shares has stabilized, and the confidence of investment in the market is also showing signs of gradual warming.

In this regard, for the central bank's "double down" move, the impact on the market will be biased towards the positive side, but investors should not be too optimistic about the short-term rise in the market.

Then, what will be the impact of the central bank's vigorous recruitment?

First of all, with the downward trend of the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate, we have once again established that China has entered the era of negative interest rates.

At present, China's one-year deposit benchmark interest rate has dropped to 1.5%. During the period, although many banks have taken measures to raise interest rates, it is difficult to conceal the real situation of the continued downward trend of interest rates.

At the same time, according to the CPI data released in September this year, the CPI data in China recorded an increase of 1.6% over the same period.

So far, CPI has risen again above the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate.

And true from our country.

At the level of analysis, the data gap is also more significant.

This also means that China has entered an era of "negative interest rate".

Moreover, while the central bank adopted the "double down" measure at the three degree, it emphasized that the upper limit of deposit interest rate was no longer set for commercial banks and rural financial institutions, which in turn forced the pformation and reform of traditional financial institutions.

At this point, in the abolition of the impact of the ceiling of the deposit interest rate fluctuation, it means that China has basically realized the reform target of the interest rate liberalization and at the same time forced the reform and pformation process of the traditional financial institutions.

In other words, for traditional financial institutions, if they can not keep pace with the pace of the times and lack the ability to make independent pricing, they will be vulnerable to shocks in the coming period.

In addition, in the central bank three degrees "

Under the influence of the social risk free interest rate will further reduce.

At the same time, for bank financial products and even P2P financial products, the overall interest rate level will continue to decline.

Take the P2P net loan industry as an example, after the first two rounds of the central bank's "double down", the interest rate level of the whole industry has also accelerated downward trend.

Among them, in September this year, China's net loan industry's comprehensive return rate was only 12.63%, and in June this year, the comprehensive yield level reached 14.17%.

However, it is undeniable that under the influence of the "double down" behavior of the central bank, it has also affected the deposits of traditional financial institutions to a certain extent, and the way of investment of ordinary people will also show a diversified pattern.

At this point, under the development trend of the diversified investment of the public, it will also boost the development of the stock market, the property market and mutual funds.

When it comes to the impact of the central bank's "double down" on A shares, it will produce different driving effects in different periods.

Looking back at the previous two central bank's "double down" actions, they also had different effects.

Among them, at the end of June this year, the central bank announced the "double down" measures.

However, in view of this "double down" action, it will further support the development of the real economy and promote structural adjustment.

At the same time, to some extent, with the help of the "double drop" to eliminate the market at that time.

The worry of turning.

However, judging from the market performance of the next trading day, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, there was a sharp plunge following the sharp opening of the market, and fell sharply by over 7% in the intraday trading, and finally ended the day's trading with a 3.34% decline.

In addition, throughout the week market performance, its cumulative decline is also as high as 12.07%.

In addition, at the end of August this year, the central bank again announced the "double down" measures.

However, for this "double down" move, the central bank has decided to release the upper limit of interest rates for more than one year (excluding one year) fixed deposit.

Looking at the impact of the "double down" on A shares, the impact of the "double drop" has changed.

However, in the next trading day, the market still reached a low level of 2850, and the market still went out of a sharp fluctuation on that day.

However, looking back at the subsequent market performance, there is also a gradual pattern of gradual warming.