Hedge Fund Also "Wrong Treasure"? Seriously Affected By Exchange Rate?

The FED will hold a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee this week. From the current market expectations, investors generally believe that the Federal Reserve will not take action in.

For hedge funds, in the past few weeks, they were obviously "in the wrong direction" about the Fed's increase in interest rates.

CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data show that in the past nine weeks, hedge funds and other fund managers have been in the wrong direction for five weeks.

Last week, spot gold fell 1.7%, to $1162.80 / ounce, the biggest weekly decline in August 28th.

CFTC released last week's position data shows that

Holdings of gold net long positions, the highest position since February, but soon after the gold price hit the biggest decline in August.

For now, though very few.

It is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets this week, but more than half believe that interest rates will increase in the next 6 months, which will also make the long-term attractiveness of gold prices much less attractive.

Meanwhile, the PBOC announced last week that it lowered the benchmark interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio. Delaki, the ECB governor of the European Central Bank (Mario), also suggested that the European Central Bank might raise new stimulus measures this year, which runs counter to the Federal Reserve.

Data showed that as of the week of October 20th, speculators increased gold holdings by more than 48%, holding futures and options contracts to 121804.

Long positions have risen for fifth consecutive weeks, reaching the highest level in January.

So far this year,

More than 10 times between the rise and fall, traders have a balance between the gloomy global growth prospects and the possible rate hike in the US.

Permanent Portfolio Family ofFunds Inc., President and fund manager Michael Cuggin in San Francisco, pointed out: "gold prices have been operating within a wide range.

Its stalemate is fluctuating with the expectation of central bank policy and the lack of inflationary pressure.

It will be up for a while.

From the point of view of trading, there are no outstanding reasons to buy or sell gold at present.

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In October 24th, "frost descends" in season.

On this day, the central bank also "double down": first, reduce the benchmark interest rate of the one-year deposit and loan of financial institutions by 0.25%, and the two is to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points.

This is the decision made by the central bank in October 23rd.

Although the central bank's "double down" is somewhat unexpected, it is also reasonable.

Because in the three quarter of October 19th, the GDP dropped 7%, which is the first time that GDP has fallen 7% since the second quarter of 2009.

Although the spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said that the GDP grew by 6.9% in the three quarter, or around 7%.

But the left point is different from the right one.

6.9% is not the same as 7.1%.

GDP growth rate dropped to 6.9%, showing the current economic situation is grim, also shows that this year's national economic security 7% goals are arduous.

In this economic situation, it is reasonable for the central bank to "double down".

In fact, early in the day when the central bank made the decision to "double down", Premier Li Keqiang made clear in the report of the Central Party school on the current economic situation and key work: we should make rational use of monetary policy measures such as lowering the right direction, lowering the interest rate and so on, so as to maintain the smooth operation of the economy.

It is not hard to see that the central bank's "double down" means the Chinese economy, not to stimulate the stock market.

Although the "double fall" also objectively makes a good stock of the stock market, it will stimulate the short-term rise of the stock market, but the market does not have to exaggerate the stimulus of the "double fall" on the stock market.

Let us not expect that the bull market of the stock market after the central bank's "interest rate cut" last November will resume again in the market.

After all, the stock market is not the same as it was a year ago.

The current stock market trend is similar to that of a year ago, and there is an upward trend.

This is why some investors have compared the impact of the "double drop" with the "interest rate cut" a year ago on the stock market.

But in fact, the market environment facing the stock market is quite different from that of a year ago.

First, the location of the stock index a year ago is about 1000 points lower than that of the current stock index, and the risk is much smaller.

Two, a year ago, many of the stock market funds were leveraged, and the stock market is still in the process of deleveraging.

The three is that the market faced by the stock market a year ago is a market that has been adjusting for 6 years since 2008. Many high hang ups have been digested by 6 years' adjustment. At present, the stock market needs to directly face the hang up plate left by the previous stock market crash.

What is particularly important is that after the lessons learned from the stock market's sharp rise and fall, management has obviously strengthened the supervision of illegal activities in the stock market, and some market manipulation behaviors that manipulate stock prices have been severely supervised by the management.

In the day when the central bank made the decision to "double down", the SFC also announced the punishment decision on 12 cases of rigging market cases, and only fines amounted to 2 billion yuan. Among them, the institutions and individuals that manipulated the stock price of A were fined nearly 1 billion 300 million yuan.

This is unprecedented in the history of A shares.

Judging from the SFC's handling of illegal activities, management has no longer unilaterally pursued the artificial bull market, but rather hopes to create a healthy market for development.

Therefore, neither the management nor the senior level will "double down" in order to stimulate the stock market.

Moreover, as early as a month ago, general secretary Xi Jinping made it clear that the stock market entered the stage of self repair and self adjustment.

Therefore, the central bank "double down" is not for the stock market.

The current stock market needs not a mad cow but a healthy development trend.