"Comprehensive Two Children" Brings The "Second Spring" To The Textile Industry?

The just concluded the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee officially announced the implementation of the "comprehensive two child" policy, which is another population policy adjustment after the decision to start the implementation of the "two child policy" in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee 2013.

If the new policy of universal two children is implemented, the current downturn in commodities and

What kind of impact will it bring?

Liu Xintian, the core expert of China Commodity Development Research Center, analyzed that "two children in all" is good for commodities, which will bring at least three waves of impact on the market.

Long term energy, chemical and other sectors will also benefit from the release of the second child.

Changes in demand will also cause qualitative changes. Over the past few years, the surplus manufacturing industry represented by toy processing and household electrical appliances will usher in the "second spring".

After 2018, the related influence will appear one after another.

However,

It is also pointed out that the comprehensive two child policy will be liberalized, and the energy and chemical products represented by crude oil will not be exhausted.

But China will have a larger population every year than the small European countries. The new population in 13th Five-Year is expected to exceed Austria's population. This means that China can breed a new market every year. "The growth of commodity demand is expected, and the recovery of the market and manufacturing industry is also expected."

The agricultural and sideline sectors will benefit from the release of the second child.

Liu Xintian believes that with the implementation of the second child policy, the fertility boom will first appear in the second half of 2016, and there will be a baby boom in 2017 and 2018.

The increase in population will inevitably bring about new demand for clothing, food and shelter, of which clothing and food bear the brunt.

"Conservatively estimated that the demand for textile products represented by cotton will increase in the future, while the growth of 10%-15% will increase with the growth of 5%-10%."

Liu Xintian expects that the stabilization and rebound of prices can be expected due to volume growth.

It is expected that the price range of cotton will be 12000-14000 yuan in 2016, and the price range of eggs will be 3600-5000 yuan.

(reference to futures contract)

Huatai Securities's latest research report predicts that the upgrading of consumer demand for infant products will further lift the growth center of children's clothing industry to 15%-20%, and it is estimated that by 2017, the children's clothing market will reach 2541 billion yuan.

The comprehensive second child will also make the formula milk market expand substantially. The increase of 35% of the newborn babies brought by the second child can make the formula milk market expand by 24 billion.