Macro Economy: There Is A Delay In The Import And Export Orders To Export Growth.

In October, the growth rate of imports and exports remained weak. The decline in export growth and the rise in export orders were somewhat deviated. The previously announced Caixin PMI rebounded sharply. The departure may be due to time lag. Usually there is a lag in export orders to export growth.

Exports to the US are higher and exports to Europe and Japan are lower. This shows the difference between the US and other economies, and also highlights the exchange rate differences. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar (6.3528, 0.0000, 0.00%) remains basically stable, and the appreciation of the US dollar is higher than that of the US dollar, which constitutes a certain pressure on exports.

The expansion of the trade surplus is an important reason for the increase in foreign exchange reserves in October, supporting the 4 quarter GDP figures and contributing to the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

Taking into account the gradual effect of micro stimulation, to maintain short-term economic stability, medium-term L type judgment, but the long-term downward pressure is still large, depends on reform and release.

The surplus is widening in October.

Increasing the important reasons is conducive to the stability of domestic capital and RMB exchange rate, and the easing direction of monetary policy.

(1) the trade surplus of China expanded to US $61 billion 600 million in October, which is an important reason for the increase of foreign exchange reserves in October. The previously announced October foreign exchange reserve unexpectedly increased by US $11 billion 400 million. In October, the improvement of risk preference and the decrease of capital outflow were also important reasons.

(2) the expansion of the trade surplus is conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate. At present, the strong US dollar constitutes a pressure on domestic liquidity and RMB, but the high surplus provides a certain buffer. Historical experience shows that the currency of the long run trade surplus is generally strong.

(3) higher trade surplus data will support the four quarter GDP data, because GDP accounting mainly considers net exports.

Export growth has declined.

US dollar denominated in October

Export growth -6.9%, down 3.2 percentage points from September, lower than market expectations.

Exports to the United States continued to grow, and exports to the EU and Japan declined because of economic and exchange rate differences.

According to the RMB valuation, China's exports to the United States increased by 5.8% in 1-10 months, 0.4 percentage points lower than in September, and the growth rate of exports to the European Union -3.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from September, to Japan's export growth rate of -9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of September, and 4.2% to ASEAN exports, 1.6 percentage points lower than September.

We can see that exports to the United States are higher and exports to Europe and Japan are lower. This shows the difference between the current US and other economies, and also highlights the exchange rate differences. The renminbi maintains a basically stable exchange rate against the US dollar, appreciates more of the non US exchange rate and forms a certain pressure on exports.

General trade exports are growing, and the status of processing trade is decreasing.

In 1-10 months, China's general trade exports increased by 2.3%, the growth rate was higher than the overall export growth rate.

Processing trade imports and exports 6 trillion and 260 billion yuan, down 10.6%, accounting for 31.4% of our total foreign trade, down 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year.

Import growth remains low.

Weakness is associated with weak commodity prices.

In October, the US dollar import of China increased by -18.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from September, but it is still at a low level, which is mainly related to the weakness of domestic demand and the weakening of commodity prices. From the data of PMI, electricity consumption and coal consumption, the domestic economy is still in the doldrums. In addition, the price of crude oil, copper, iron ore and other commodities in October is mixed and low.

Export growth of labor-intensive products has declined, and imports of crude commodities such as crude oil and grain have increased.

(1) the export of mechanical and electrical products has increased, and the export growth rate of labor-intensive products has declined.

In 1-10 months, China's electromechanical products exported 6 trillion and 580 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, accounting for 57.4% of the total value of exports.

The 7 major categories of labor-intensive products total exports of 2 trillion and 410 billion yuan, down 2.5%, accounting for 21% of the total value of exports.

In addition, steel exports 92 million 135 thousand tons, an increase of 24.7%.

(2) the import volume of major commodities such as crude oil, grain and refined oil increased, and the import of iron ore, coal and steel decreased.

In 1-10 months, China imported 2.75 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 8.9%, an import of 1.03 million tons of grain, an increase of 27.4%, a 1.7 billion tons of coal, a reduction of 29.9%, 25 million 177 thousand tons of refined oil, 3.1% increase, 10 million 684 thousand tons of steel, a reduction of 11.7%, an average of 100 million tons of iron ore, a reduction of imports and an average import price of $1 per ton.