China'S Economy Is Singing About A Stock Market Hurricane.

As the stock market is racing, many economic report cards for the first four months of the first quarter are about to be announced.

The market is expected to be small. One of the reasons is that the official PMI and Caixin PMI data released recently were both promising.

Some analysts have recently released forecasts for economic data for October. It is widely believed that the upcoming October economic data will show signs of economic stabilization in the four quarter: data on PPI, investment, exports and industrial added value may all improve.

However, in view of the pressure of deflation, there is still room for future policy easing.

Many analysts pointed out that although the economic data showed signs of stabilization, the four quarter of the economy is still in a relatively low state, deflation pressure is still in the future policy still has room for relaxation.

CICC said it expects the central bank to reduce the deposit reserve rate 1 times in 2015, a margin of 50 basis points.

Perhaps the most reassuring of many economic data is consumer data, and consumer data have shown good performance over the past few months.

CICC expects total retail sales of social consumer goods to grow by 11% year-on-year in October, a slight increase from 10.8% in September, and is expected to increase to 11% over the same period in October.

Some analysts also pointed out that in the medium to long term, the turning point of population that has already appeared may make China face the problem of "not getting rich before getting old".

It is precisely because of this that the most reassuring consumer data at present is not necessarily able to be "independent" when investment and exports are under pressure of growth.

The upcoming economic data include the October import and export data released in November 8th, as well as October CPI, PPI, investment, consumption, industrial added value, real estate development and sales data released in November 10th and 11th.

CICC expects manufacturing investment and real estate investment to stabilise.

The trade surplus in October will probably remain at a high level of around us $67 billion 700 million, or even a new high.

However, deflationary pressure has not diminished.

National securities Macro Analyst

It is believed that in October, the policy effect gradually appeared, the economy began to stabilize, but the pressure of foreign trade and deflation was still small.

Analysts generally expect that the growth rate of CPI in October will be further down compared with the same period last year. One of the main reasons is that pork prices are beginning to decline.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in November 4th, on October 21-30, prices of pork, eggs and fresh vegetables with higher prices in the early period rose from a turn to a turn.

For example, pork fell by 1.2% over the previous period, with beef down by 1.4% and eggs by 1.5%.

CIC expects October CPI growth will fall further from 1.6% in September to 1.5%, and national security is expected to be 1.4%.

China Merchants Securities expects a year-on-year growth rate of less than 1.3%.

As for PPI, some analysis agencies are expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in PPI in October.

CICC expects PPI growth in October to rise slightly from September's -5.9% to -5.7%.

The year-on-year growth rate narrowed to -5.8%.

National securities are relatively pessimistic and are expected to be -6.2%.

Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities, said in an interview that in view of the simultaneous arrival of the inflection point of China's economy and the demographic dividend inflection point, although the momentum of short-term internal consumption pformation is good, he still worries about the sustainable growth of China's consumption in the medium and long term.

"A decline in investment will lead to a decline in employment, which will eventually lead to a downward trend.

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Therefore, in the process of economic downturn, consumption can not be independent and independent of the economic cycle.

Zhang Jun pointed out that compared with Japan, where the population inflection point also occurs, although China's government debt level at population inflexion is roughly the same as that of Japan, China's economic development stage is lagging behind that of Japan in the same period.

"This has created the economic and social problems of China's future" not getting rich before the old age "at the practical level, which is also the consideration of the recent government's plan to fully liberate the two children in 13th Five-Year.

Zhang Jun said.