PTA Tight Supply And Demand In The Short Term Should Seize Current Investment Opportunities.

"The oversupply of PTA is not as serious as expected. There is not much stock in the market, and the expansion of industry capacity is coming to an end." Speaking at the meeting, the special lecturer, Zheng Ming, Zheng Ming. A series of black swan events this year have changed the supply pattern of PTA market. In April 6th, the Tenglong aromatics PX project exploded, and Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, one of the three PTA giants in the country, was forced to stop. In April 21st, the PTA plant with an annual capacity of 700 thousand tons was still not restarted.

From 6 to July, the PTA processing fee was maintained at 350 yuan / ton, and some small factories had to stop for a long time. Until the end of the third quarter of this year, eliminating backward production capacity is basically the main keynote of PTA market.

In this context, many participants believe that this year's market Supply structure Great changes have taken place, and PTA continues to stock up. "Since August, PTA social inventory has been declining." Qi Mingzhi said that domestic PTA production capacity of 47 million tons, the current temporary parking devices accounted for 30%, the actual operating rate can reach 60% - 65% even if it is good, the elasticity of supply increase is not large.

"The future trend of PTA1601 contracts will be closer to the spot market, and the impact of the spot market will increase. We should pay close attention to the situation of stocks and polyester factories. At present, the price of PTA is still strong, there are not many social stocks, and warehouse receipts have been reduced a lot. Wang Yuxing, director of futures Department of Tong Kun group, said.

"Although the current price of PTA is suppressed by the low price of crude oil, naphtha and so on are relatively lower, which is not too pessimistic for the trend of the latter stage of aromatics. The upstream cost is relatively strong for PTA." Yang Yilei believes that compared with the past, the PTA industry chain has a more reasonable profit structure and is better in energy chemicals.

In Wu Wenhai's view, PTA now oscillates near 4500 yuan / ton, ahead of others. Chemical products There is not much room for building. For the market outlook, he believes that there will not be a big rally, there will only be a small rebound.

At present, due to the low demand of individual polyester factories, it is still a good deal to buy. Many people in the industry believe that the short-term PTA1601 contracts are limited.

"1601 contract empty empty disk accounted for 30%, near the delivery month short initiative to reduce the kinetic energy increase, to the disk price support. At present, the social stock is near 1 million 400 thousand tons, which is beneficial to the long term. " Ouyang Jiajie said, it should be noted that in mid January of next year, as the Spring Festival draws near, the polyester factories in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River will gradually reduce load or stop, PTA demand is likely to shrink, market supply will tend to be loose, or the confidence of the 1601 contracts will be reduced.

On the operation, he thinks, for the 1605 contract, it can do more in 4450 yuan / ton, and buy on the margin of safety. Later, you can buy varieties with less capacity and large capacity to expand, such as buying PTA and throwing PP.

" PTA The market is in a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term. " Ouyang Jiajie, an investment strategist, said that the price of PX, which was finalized in the ACP negotiations in January, is relatively low. PTA suppliers take the opportunity to lock in the cost and maintain the tight supply and demand pattern by controlling supply and installation rate.

"The current PTA industry chain capacity expansion has reached the end." Qi Mingzhi believes that the future industry chain will have a profit redistribution process, shifting from upstream to downstream. In the view of Rongsheng Petrochemical responsible person Lei Zheng position, the elimination of PTA old equipment is inevitable. After the excess capacity is cleared, the market will have a reassessment of the reasonable inventory of PTA, and the supply and demand will gradually restore balance.