The Three Labor Intensive Industries Are Facing The Risk Of Export Decline.

The Customs General Administration released the import and export data in December 8th, which is no doubt a "double drop" in November.

According to customs statistics, in November, China's total import and export value was 2 trillion and 160 billion yuan, down 4.5% compared to the same period last year, of which, exports were 1 trillion and 250 billion yuan, down 3.7%; imports 910 billion yuan, down 5.6%.

In the first 11 months, the total value of imports and exports dropped by 7.8%, of which exports and imports fell by 2.2% and 14.4% respectively.

According to last year's export data, the China Times reporter estimated that if we want to export this year, we must achieve a growth rate of 20% in December. It seems that this year's export negative growth is almost certain. But fortunately, the decline is not too big, while the electrical and mechanical products which account for more than 50% of the export products have maintained a weak growth. It seems that it is not too bad.

Besides, the export enterprises of labor-intensive products, which involve large numbers of employment, are especially cold.

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It is the three largest export product in labor-intensive products. The latest data show that these three labor-intensive industries are facing the risk of export decline, while the largest proportion of clothing is the most serious.

Export disaster area

Exports have been experiencing negative growth for 5 consecutive months, which has made people worry about Chinese manufacturing, but not all kinds of exports are declining. The most serious areas are concentrated on labor-intensive products.

The latest data released by the Customs show that in the 1-11 months of this year, 7 major labor-intensive products such as textiles, clothing, bags, footwear and other products totaled 2 trillion and 640 billion yuan, down 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Of them, textiles, clothing and footwear, which accounted for more than 70%, fell 1.8%, 7% and 4.8% respectively.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the former National Bureau of statistics, told reporters that after the end of the demographic dividend, China's labor force is no longer dominant, while Vietnam, Kampuchea and Indonesia are studying China to vigorously develop processing trade.

The average wage per worker in Vietnam is only half that of the average wage of Chinese workers, and Kampuchea is cheaper.

The prosperity of labor-intensive industries, especially low-end labor-intensive industries, depends to a large extent on the massive release of demographic dividend in a region.

The decline in demographic dividend, especially the increase in per capita wages and the decrease in the strength of working age, is inevitable.

Since the beginning of this year, a large number of enterprises have gone bankrupt in the manufacturing sector of the mainland, which coincides with the export situation.

Before July this year, thousands of employees of Bao Li Jia could never have imagined that the biggest textile enterprise in East China would collapse overnight.

Since the beginning of this year, there are still a lot of large enterprises, like Po Li Jia, which have been closed down, and enterprises have stopped production and closed down, and their employees have blocked roads to get salaries. These have been staged many times in the Pearl River Delta region.

The survival pressure of labor-intensive industries has increased. Taking textile and clothing as an example, our reporter has made rough statistics on public information, and found that at least 10 textile and garment enterprises have closed this year, and this is only a data entry into the media view, and does not include those small factories that have quietly failed because of foreign debts.

"There are so many factories, and there are more small factories."

Xu Jian told reporters that the noisy industrial area in the past few years is now getting more and more deserted.

Xu Jian runs a textile enterprise in Jiangsu, which mainly deals with the external processing of middle and high end garments.

In the manufacturing city of Dongguan, Guangdong, there has also been a "collapse tide" argument, and some even reckoned that more than 4000 enterprises went bankrupt this year.

Although the Dongguan municipal government has repeatedly cracked down on the "collapse tide", it is still undeniable that more and more enterprises are no longer able to survive.

Yuan Baocheng, mayor of Dongguan, said that in the first half of this year, the number of newly registered enterprises in Dongguan increased by 23.5%. Many of these newly registered companies were new high-tech companies. Therefore, the "closing tide" of Dongguan enterprises is the survival of the fittest in the market. It is also the result of Dongguan's 6 years of "cage changing for birds" and the pformation and upgrading of the industry.

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Life and death line

In December 3rd, Xu Jian stood at the door of his factory and looked at the streets more and more deserted.

After more than ten years of entrepreneurship, he was forced to cut back on production this year.

And the export enterprises that can survive do not seem to be any easier than the ones that go bankrupt.

"The cost of labor in the textile industry is at least 5 times higher than that in Southeast Asian countries, and the cost of cotton is at least 30% higher."

Xu Jian told reporters that this year textile enterprises are more concerned about labor costs than ever, because labor costs have accounted for more than 30% of the cost of production.

Xu Jian did not regard Southeast Asia as a competitor before. He did not worry too much about the pfer of orders just now.

In his view, although the cost of labor in Southeast Asian countries is relatively low, it is impossible to complete complex orders, but now his views are slowly changing, not only because of the growth of technological level in Southeast Asia, but also because China's competitors are not only confined to Southeast Asia, but also the whole world.

The Boston consulting group released in August this year's report on the global shift in the manufacturing sector, pointing out that the UK is the lowest cost manufacturing economy in Western Europe. In Asia, India's low cost advantage is constantly showing that the US and Mexico are becoming new stars in the global manufacturing industry.

The report said that the cost advantage of China's factory manufacturing industry has been reduced to less than 5% compared to that of the United States. If the trend continues for 10 years, the cost gap between China and the United States will disappear, and the average manufacturing cost in Mexico is expected to be 13% lower than that in China.

What worries Xu Jian more is that the financing of many industries is becoming more and more difficult this year. Some investment institutions and banks are reluctant to lend money to textile enterprises. Many factories can only go bankrupt because of the broken capital chain.

In August this year, the largest textile company in East China, the company was bankrupt. The chairman of the company told the society and Bao Li Jia's staff book that since last year, the group has been heavily charged by various financial institutions, which has reduced the cash flow by more than 300 million yuan in one year.

Financial institutions have been borrowing and lending unchecked, resulting in a serious shortage of enterprises' operating rate and serious losses.

In addition, the investment agreement of the Lu'an economic and Technological Development Zone has promised to solve the 420 million yuan of credit funds for the Lu'an Bao Li Jia project, which has been invested for seventh years. The credit funds that the enterprises get is only 20 million yuan from the Lu'an agricultural commercial bank, which is only a fraction of the agreement commitment.

As a result, the company's operating rate is insufficient, resulting in annual losses.

"Innovation needs capital, and pformation and upgrading also need capital."

Xu Jian said that for many textile enterprises, survival is the most important issue at present.

When the new year is approaching, I don't know how many enterprises will survive this winter.