2016 Will Not Be The Turning Point Of The Economic Cycle?

Whether China's economy is good or not? In November, the figures were released, and people were looking forward to the bottom of the economy. They thought the data were very good, the industrial added value was picking up, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was rising, the currency M2 was rising, the real estate sales growth was picking up, and the consumption was also picking up.

Such good data, does it mean that the economy has bottomed out? I am afraid it can not be so optimistic.

Economic fluctuation is a cyclical process.

The Chinese economy may be in the downward path of the Kuznets cycle (the real estate cycle). It is said that the cycle is usually 18-25 years, and has been going on for 15 years since 2000.

Policies must be counter cyclical, but policies can only change the slope and not change the trend.

Therefore, there is no need to comment on policies or think they have brilliant ideas.

For example, it is difficult to reduce interest and reduce interest to financing

The solution of your problem has some effect, but the effect on the real economy does not seem to be very obvious.

The consensus of 2016 is that the rate of interest reduction is very small, and the clearance space is larger.

The expectation for fiscal policy is also consistent, that is, the deficit rate will rise to 3%.

But I think there is not much room for fiscal reform. The ideal is very plentiful and the reality is very skinny.

Near the end of the year, many economists said in their speeches that there might be an inflection point next year, or an economy, or a reform, or an industry.

I think the inflection point is something that can not be met.

Like real estate, this year's real estate sales are better than last year, but worse than in 2013.

Once the trend is formed, it is difficult to change when the real estate investment growth rate peaked in 2010.

We now expect real estate to play a stimulating role in the Chinese economy? This is not very realistic.

Once the trend is formed, it is difficult to change.

For example, it has been a long time since Chinese aunt went to buy gold.

In the first three years after the fall, Chinese mothers went all the way to buy gold because they thought they were going to rebound soon.

Now that gold has fallen to 1000 dollars, no one thinks that the inflection point has arrived and is anxious to buy it.

Compared with a long history, people as a short-lived animal always want to have a limited time.

It is not realistic to think of the possibility of turning into a turning point in history every year.

We often regard a small fluctuation as an inflection point, which is obviously wrong. November is only a year's 1/12. Even if the trend of one year goes up or down, it may not be able to change the trend.

Therefore, we still need to have more patience to wait for the change of history.

For example, in the three carriages that pull the economy, investment has been going down for years, and exports are going down.

China's exports have accounted for 12% of the world's total exports, and this proportion is unlikely to continue to rise.

Not only is China's investment growth going down, but the growth rate of Global trade is also declining.

Take a look at the maritime index. Not only is the international maritime index, but also the negative growth of our domestic rail freight volume, and the growth rate of power generation has also dropped sharply.

The liquidity of goods is decreasing, and the growth rate of investment is also decreasing. Therefore, internal factors and external factors do not support economic warming.

Only the consumption data can be counted, that is, the proportion of new consumption is rising, especially the proportion of new consumption such as pportation, communication, culture and entertainment, health care and so on.