China Faces Severe Economic Situation, "Haze" Is Very Serious.

As we all know, it is difficult to understand the health of China's economy.

So vague, largely attributable to

"Search data to determine the growth rate always consistent with the Chinese government's goals" hobby.

To be sure, in fact, no one will fully believe in official data. When it comes to gross domestic product, the situation is complicated by what we call the Chinese government's defective calculation of deflation index.

This calculation makes China habitually exaggerate economic growth during the rapid decline in commodity prices.

Although the seller's estimate is useless (Wall Street people are forced to release their expected error, because trying to estimate that China's actual output value will mean that every time they fail to reach the official level), we can get the right and China by observing the "strong index" of tracking electricity consumption, railway freight volume and loan volume.

Similar figures.

China, of course, tries to achieve its goal.

The economic pition from low tech manufacturing to consumption and services is highlighted in Miller's Brown book report.

However, he also pointed out: "China's economy is generally weak.

The search for a successful pition from manufacturing to service industry will have to be shelved for a while.

Only parts of the difficult situation of China's manufacturing industry still apply. "

Miller continued: "what is more worrying than the overall economic growth is that the two most important parts of the economy are recession. These two parts have not been regarded as the driving force of economic growth. They are the impact of the labor market and inflation rate.

Considering that input price and sales price fell to record lows, and the performance indicators of enterprises fell, it seems that companies are moving closer.

Interest in borrowing and spending continues to decline, suggesting that Pavlovian responses has been outdated by stimulus makers.

Or reform will go bankrupt. "

In retrospect, in October this year, overcapacity and gloomy economic prospects suppressed demand for credit, and the increase in non-performing loans made banks more prudent in dealing with loans, and the credit impulse was strangled.

Another way to assess the health of China's economy is to follow the Fed's way of investigating the US economy.

According to the Chinese brown leather book, China's economy has deteriorated significantly in the fourth quarter, and the scope of its weakness has widened.

Although the official data of industrial output, retail sales and fixed assets investment exceed the expected value in November, meanwhile, the fact that consumer inflation is rising and the volume of imports has declined moderately, the brown book still points out that "state sales, sales volume, production value, price, profit, employment, lending and capital expenditure are all below the level of the previous three months".

Leland Miller, chairman of the brown leather book, said the profit reading was particularly disturbing as the proportion of companies that reported increased profits fell to record lows.

Although retail sales and real estate data are not bad, manufacturing and service sector data and revenues, employment rates, asset spending and profits have been reduced.