The State Council Has Finalized Five Tasks In The Capital Market.

China's stock market is a policy city. This point should not be controversial. Since it is a policy city, we must pay close attention to the impact of policy changes on the stock market. In the first half of the year, the reform of cattle is due to the fact that the market economy pformation has been increasingly valued by the top and the market. What changes are there in the stock market policy?

China's economic development is becoming more and more difficult to rely solely on bank credit. The capital market will gradually take up the stage and take on more responsibilities. The importance is self-evident. Stock market stability and health will become a new hope for China's economy, bearing the dream of China's economy going to power.

But to realize the dream of strong capital market in China's economy, we must ensure that the vast majority of investors earn money, otherwise no one will play with you. History tells us!

Only by increasing capital market financing will it be possible to further support the development of new technology industry, because new technology can create little mortgage assets and difficult to obtain bank financing, and new technology is the top priority of China's economy in the future.

Therefore, from the public opinion to the market to the high level, we attach great importance to the capital market planning and construction, and reach a consensus on the management level. That is to accelerate the registration process.

Recently, the State Council passed the 13.5 capital market plan and established 5 tasks of the capital market. The author believes that this plan will have a far-reaching impact on the future trend of China's stock market. The following is the author's explanation from a small angle. The author is just a little scattered, not an expert, nor an analyst.

A few days ago, the State Council finalized five tasks of the capital market.

We should improve multi-level capital markets such as stocks and bonds.

Increase the number of listed company in China's SME share pfer system, and launch a pilot pfer to gem.

Rich direct financing tools.

Promoting the pilot of infrastructure asset securitization, and regulating the development of network lending.

We should strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies and intermediaries such as accounting and law firms, and study the cross licensing of securities, funds and futures institutions to promote balanced development of investment and financing.

We should gradually expand the investment of insurance protection funds in the capital market, standardize the investment and financing functions such as developing trust and bank financing.

Strengthening supervision and risk prevention, strengthening relevant system construction, and resolutely cracking down on financial fraud and illegal fund-raising activities in accordance with the law, and earnestly protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors.

The author makes a point of supplementation, that is to set up the emerging market board of Shanghai market strategy, which is also a key work of the government in the future.

Whether it is to improve the stock and bond market, increase the number of new three board listed company, and promote the pfer mechanism, or to establish a strategic emerging board, further to the registration system pition, all means that the expansion of new shares will further accelerate, the need for the market to increase a large number of new funds to enter the field to undertake the expansion of new shares, public data show that as of December 17th, has accepted the first 718 enterprises.

Among them, there were 67, but not 651.

633 enterprises that normally fail to be heard in the enterprise have not been passed, and 18 enterprises have been discontinued.

Analysts said that at present, the number of new stocks issued by the new stock market is still high next year.

Therefore, the 13.5 plan means that the new era of expansion of new shares will come again, and its pace and scale will not be slower than that of the last round of market-oriented reform. We should have a full understanding of this.

How fast is it? According to DDT statistics, A stock market completed 220 IPO in 2015, raising 158 billion 800 million yuan.

Haitong Securities pointed out that the securities and Futures Commission made it clear that the scale of equity financing will be further expanded in 2016 and the registration system should be implemented as soon as possible.

In 2014, the scale of IPO and refinancing was 61 billion 300 million yuan and 688 billion 200 million yuan respectively. Although IPO and refinancing were limited in the second half of 2015, there were 140 billion 600 million yuan and 914 billion 400 million yuan respectively. Considering the further expansion of equity financing in 2016, it is expected that in 2016 IPO and refinancing were 400 billion yuan and 10000 billion yuan respectively.

Why does the author always pay attention to IPO, because the capital market game is actually a capital game, and the stock rise is based on the accumulation of funds rather than relying on the mouth to blow out, saying that the recent Vanke competition for equities, Bao energy department spent nearly 40 billion yuan of money, it is the treasure can buy crazy and market funds to rush to raise the price difference, only to cause Vanke stocks rose 90% in a short time, so there is no trillions of dollars in the 13.5 plan to enter the stock market, the stock index will rise almost impossible.

In order to hedge the expansion of new shares, the SFC also increased the expansion of capital access, hoping to form a market with balanced investment and financing, namely, "gradually expanding the investment of insurance protection funds in the capital market, regulating the development and investment of trust and bank financing."

In the stock market, the quality of large cap stocks is the so-called asset panic, and the most important thing is the entry of bank financing funds. The financial capital is not only huge but also requires a very good liquidity, and its every move will have a far-reaching impact on the capital market. The first priority of financial capital is to ensure the safety of the principal as much as possible. Secondly, it is the issue of earnings. The yield requirement is not too high. There is a 4 to 5% market share. Therefore, a good stock market with high dividend yield and good liquidity is the first choice for financial capital. The scale of insurance funds is huge, especially in the near future, universal insurance investment linked insurance is more and more popular.

Therefore, I believe that the entry of financial capital will be beneficial to the good market. Unfortunately, it is now being leveraged and blocked.

I remember a well-known analyst who had similar views and found it out.

"If one day sees incremental capital entering the market, low risk preferences enter, and 2 billion 500 million financial management comes in, then go for it.

"

According to the context, value investing is the undervalued stock market with high dividend yield.

However, the entry of bank financing funds is currently blocked by management. How to enter the market after deleveraging is a problem that we should focus on.

Because the entry of financial capital will be related to the pformation of investment style. When it comes to the pformation of investment style, we have to mention the registration system and the pfer board mechanism.

In the first half of the year, the stock market has been booming. Many of the stocks are increasing exponentially. One reason is the so-called scarcity of market resources. What is the registration system? In essence, it is to speed up the issuing rhythm and support the construction of the real economy. What is the emerging strategic version? That is, in order to meet the needs of the stock market and provide a new listing place for the new technology industry, especially the companies with large volume and not suitable for the gem, what is the new three board pfer mechanism? Essentially, it is to let the new three board enterprises go to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to increase their liquidity and financing convenience, and the three channels continuously pour new markets into the market.

Will there be any scarcity of resources?

No longer, it can even be said that the scarcity will never happen again, the supply side has been completely opened up, the resources will only be overloaded and not scarce, and the small and medium sized enterprises can still maintain such a high valuation. We can think carefully that the 100 times price earnings ratio is the peak of the world stock market, and the market will soon take the road of value return, but the short term slump will not sit idly by. The new stock disaster will affect the progress of the stock market financing. According to the author's estimate, the SFC will have the power and responsibility to maintain the short-term and high short-term value of the small and medium enterprises, such as controlling the listing price and tempo, but it will guide the valuation to decline slowly. After 2 years, the level of earnings return to 50 times will be a big probability event. Since scarcity

The return of overall price earnings ratio does not mean that all stock prices have plummeted. The market will have a huge differentiation in the future market. Without performance support, it will be astonishing to rely solely on storytelling to overestimate the value of stocks. The growth of some stocks with high growth will stand out as a new blue chip for high-tech technology. The market outlook will only rely on the trend of speculation. The investors will need more time to analyze and think if they want to make profits in the capital market.

This is perhaps the reason why the mainstream thinks that the registration system will eliminate large numbers of small investors.

Under the rotating board mechanism, once the new three board stocks enter the gem, the valuation will be greatly improved. The huge money making effect will attract a lot of capital accumulation. Therefore, the new three board is an important gold rush field, but the general investors will not be able to do so. It can only be the institutional and market capital bigwigs.

The key to the pfer mechanism is to prevent insider trading.

The key to the registration system is the quality of the letter, so it is particularly important to strengthen the responsibilities of the market participants. One of the five tasks of the State Council is to "strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies and intermediaries such as accounting and law firms".

It is an important supporting measure that the early stage payment of the IPO fraud is made by the sponsor agencies in advance. In the future, a lot of departmental rules and regulations will be introduced to perfect it.

System.

On the other hand, it hopes to attract funds into the market by improving the system and protecting the interests of investors.

China's stock market goes to the two extremes, the low price market shares are very low, and the small cap stocks are highly valued. One reason is that the growth of the financial sector is not as good as before. Therefore, promoting the mixed operation of the financial sector and raising the level of profitability is also an important aspect. For this reason, we will study the "cross licensing of securities, funds and futures institutions", which is a good business for the securities business. The whole business benefit also comes from the substantial increase in the registered sponsor's income, and the increase in the issuance cost under the issuance of the bonds. It also comes from the increase in the commission income under the increase of the market value, and it also increases the profits from the new three board makers.

Because the investment opportunities of brokers in the future are still huge. At present, the opportunities for strategic opportunities are not yet seen, but the adjustment is still the sunshine after the rain.

Although there are not many words in the five major tasks, as a programmatic document, it is not necessary to stipulate too much concrete, but as the bugle of capital market development has blown up, the Chinese capital market will enter a bidirectional rapid expansion era. Many supporting measures will also be introduced one after another. It is a changeable policy era. The difference between the author and the optimist is that the expansion is very simple and quick, and the introduction of capital is very difficult and changeable. The trend of China's stock market in the 16 years will not be too optimistic.

Favorable policies will also be introduced, with more and more new shares expanding, and the index space will soon be blocked.

Therefore, catching up and selling has become the worst way of operation.

Rising sales and falling buying may be a better way to do that.

A more extreme case is that the admission of new capital does not appear on schedule, and if IPO is not effectively controlled, the market trend will be very pessimistic. Not only will the weight fall, but also the subject matter will be spared.

The market is in an overall weak state, and the result is not impossible.