Registration System Is Really Coming. The Real Registration System Has Not Yet Arrived.

The registration system has been implemented through the gradual reform of the issuing system. I reply that because the securities law is still being revised, the relevant provisions of the old securities law are not suitable for registration system, which requires the NPC's immunity from authorization.

It is estimated that the new securities law should be launched within two years, and then switch to the new law, namely, in accordance with the requirements of registration system in the new securities law.

Therefore, the second meaning of the two-year implementation period can be interpreted as a buffer period of two years, that is, from March 1, 2016 to March 1, 2018, it is a stage of reform and perfection.

If it goes smoothly, the real registration system can be implemented within two years.

Therefore, this is also beneficial to the smooth pition of the market.

Just as the SFC spokesman explained the registration system in this way: Chr (34) registration system reform will adhere to the orientation of marketization and rule of law, establish and improve the system of the main responsibility of the market players, protect investment, facilitate financing, grasp the linkage of the pace, intensity and market affordability of the reform, take overall consideration and step by step, so as to ensure the stable operation of the market.

Chr (34)

I really haven't found any information about this.

However, after all, China's stock market has only developed for 25 years, so far it is the second largest stock market in the world.

We often criticize the regulation of the capital market a lot, but in fairness, there are still many deficiencies in China's supervision. It is just that we are not concerned enough. The stock market attracts worldwide attention and interests are at stake, so criticism is hard to avoid.

Nevertheless, compared with mature markets, there are still many shortcomings, such as currency can not be freely convertible, and domestic and overseas stock investment is limited.

People's exchanges are made by companies, many of them are listed. We are still members, and the general assembly has not been opened for many years.

People's stock issue is very free. When the market is good, it often happens. When the market is bad, the price is limited, and the issuing price goes on the market.

These gaps, even in the absence of registration, are obvious.

Therefore, registration system reform is indeed a long way to go.

For example, the reform of IPO system has been carried out many times, and has been discussed many times from bottom to top and from top to bottom, but so far, the issue price has not been released and the issuing rhythm has been controlled.

Over the past 21 years, 9 new shares have been suspended.

This is not because we can not get out, but because we fear that new shares will be destroyed and will not be conducive to stability because our idea is stability and overwhelming.

Other reforms have similar features, such as fiscal reform, investment and financing system reform, and so on.

Although Chuang-tzu has long said: fish and bear's paw can not be concurrently, but our dialectical logic has been demanding both.

For example, the economic crisis in foreign countries, the collapse of a large scale of banks and enterprises, the economic speed significantly reduced, the growth rate of 10 years is often chopped, China has never happened in more than 30 years.

And it keeps growing fast.

But the cost is huge. How to evaluate it?

The last question, which is also controversial, is whether the style will be switched.

Since the registration system is launched, the stock supply will increase significantly in the future, and the stock of shell resources will not be worth much, and there will be more junk stocks.

As a result, the truly valuable undervalued blue chips will be sought after.

This is the logic of style switching.

However, I still think of some other logic to support style switching.

First, from the perspective of market development in the past 25 years, it has experienced the opening of B shares to domestic investors, the split share structure reform, the Shanghai Hong Kong pass and the non tradable shares gradually becoming tradable shares. These are the opportunities to trigger the correction of valuation distortions, and can also be regarded as the inducing factors of style conversion.

Second,

In the process of pformation, the process of heavy industrialization has entered the late stage. PPI has been negative for 44 consecutive months. China's crude steel output has peaked for 05 years. China's GDP growth rate is 07 years. The global oil price is 08 years high. The real estate investment growth rate is 10 years. The gold price point is 11 years. The labor force reduction in China is 12 years, and the high point of the RMB exchange rate is 14 years.

Most of the blue chips are state-owned enterprises, not only the industries are mostly cyclical industries, but they are mostly in the recession stage, and there are also defects in corporate governance.

According to the statistical results of the National Bureau of statistics on the operation of different ownership enterprises in the previous October, the main business income of state-owned enterprises decreased by 25% in the 1-10 months compared with the same period last year, while the total profit decreased by 8.3% compared with the same period last year, while private enterprises increased by 6.2% and 5.1% respectively.

Third,

The change of structure is a slow and long-term process. The structure will not change rapidly due to the introduction of registration system.

For example, about 85% of the volume of trading in China's stock market is created by retail investors.

Therefore, the pricing of most stocks in the market is decided by retail investors, and the organization lacks the ability to price.

Although the public offering fund is also an institutional investor, the investment of the public offering fund is relatively passive, and the retail investors have redemption and Shen Gouquan.

Generally speaking, the scale of China's long-term investors is not big enough, and its share is also very low. This also determines that style pformation and valuation correction are a long-term process.

The registration system affirms that the current A share market has certain influence.

Why is the valuation so high now? Because the stock supply is insufficient, the registration system is launched, and the capital controls are relaxed, so the supply will increase substantially.

And now it is encouraging the public to start business innovation. In 13th Five-Year, the government also mentioned the increase of direct financing and the need for a prosperous capital market to support it.

In the future, the stock market is facing pressure, mainly on the pressure of supply. The pressure has come, but it will not become a reality soon.

It is estimated that in the initial stage of registration, the price will be limited and the price will not be released directly.

What's more, there are more than 700 companies queuing up on the market now. If the stock market is suppressed because of the registration system, the financing function is no longer available.

We must understand the "Chinese characteristics" of China's policies. This is probably due to the difference of thinking logic between China and the West. Westerners are accustomed to formal logic, such as shock therapy in Russia. Chinese people are accustomed to dialectical logic, that is, they often propose what Chr (34) should do and how Chr (34) should pursue stability and balance.

Looking back at all the plans and policies in history, you will find that most of the five year plans are in pursuit of reform and structural adjustment, but the policies of the year tend to seek balance and growth.

Therefore, we are not the logic concept of Westerners, but when we consider short-term considerations, we often give up those small targets.

This is perhaps the difficulty of our relationship over the years of reform and stability and development.