Monetary Policy Should Be Flexible And Moderate Next Year.

The central economic work conference stressed that monetary policy should be flexible and moderate next year. Domestic analysts are cautious about the prospect of further monetary easing.

Recently, Ma Jun, an economist at the central bank, issued a question about the effectiveness of the drop in accuracy.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, recently told the newspaper that next year, the Central Bank of China will be more cautious in cutting interest rates. In the overall situation, it is not appropriate to substantially reduce interest rates if next year.

Continue to maintain a steady trend, again the possibility of reducing interest is not big.

Lian Ping expects that the "asset shortage" will slightly reduce the net profit growth rate of commercial banks next year. Taking into account the heavy pricing effect of the central bank's interest rate cut this year and the possibility of a slight reduction in interest rates next year, the net interest margin will narrow 17 basis points. If interest rates are not cut, the net interest margin will be narrowed by 13 basis points.

Next year, the net profit of commercial banks will increase by 1%, and business revenue growth will further slow down to around 9%.

Yesterday's Wall Street article noted that Ma Jun, chief economist of the central bank's Research Bureau, wrote in the financial times of the central bank, China.

With the acceleration of innovation, the role of market expectations in guiding financial behavior is also increasing. The corresponding relationship between quantitative indicators (such as M2) and price indicators (such as interest rates) has been gradually broken.

The article quotes the content of Ma Jun's article, saying that Ma Jun believes that if the timing and intensity of the timing are not well controlled, the short-term interest rate will fluctuate sharply, which may further weaken the interest rate pmission.

If the reduction is too large or too frequent, it will lead to the excessive downward trend of domestic short-term interest rates, which may aggravate capital outflow.

See the effect of liquidity expansion.

Wall Street institutions still expect that China will further relax its efforts next year.

The above article also mentions that during the period when the market is approaching the usual market, the central bank's reverse repurchase trading volume is the lowest in the year, and the net return is 20 billion yuan. The interbank market interest rate has also been stable.

Analysts expect that liquidity is expected to further improve over the next year, and the next possible time window will be before the Spring Festival.

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The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the proposal for the "13th Five-Year plan" to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, establish a system that suits the responsibilities and responsibilities of expenditures, and appropriately enhance the responsibilities of central authorities and expenditures.

Mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties, consider the nature of tax categories, and further rationalize the division of income between the central and local governments.

At present, China is experiencing unprecedented pains of reform. China urgently needs a thorough reform to bring the weak economy into a new stage.

Under the new normal economy, there are different problems in the development of different regions, especially in the northeast region. The economic growth in the northeast is causing concern. How can we find new growth drivers under such circumstances? The central government has repeatedly proposed the establishment of a unified national market to promote the flow of resources, and to make the impulse of local development consistent with the central strategy, so we need to reform from the level of system design.

So, what system reform should be carried out and how to promote it? For this reason, the 21 media reporters interviewed Yin Zhongqing, member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and vice chairman of the finance and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress.

In his view, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system is a key. We must improve the budgetary system, improve the local tax system, establish a matching system of financial and expenditure between the central and local governments, and further play the baton role of fiscal reform.

At the same time, he also pointed out that excessive growth in deficit and debt may be a double-edged sword.

The recently concluded central economic work conference also proposed that we should speed up the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and speed up the key issues such as dividing the central and local powers and responsibilities, improving the local tax system, strengthening local development capacity and lightening the burden of enterprises.