Cotton Price Trend In 2016: Or Will It Continue To Slide?

Recently, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the whole country in 2015

The total output was 5 million 605 thousand tons, the lowest in 12 years.

Compared with the previous year, cotton production decreased by 574 thousand tons last year, a decrease of 9.3%.

At the same time, cotton prices continue to decline, and cotton selling problems are frequent everywhere.

Will the output of cotton increase this year? What will happen to the cotton market?

It is understood that the decrease in cotton production last year was mainly due to a decline in planting area.

However, as a major agricultural product, China's cotton stocks are relatively large. Therefore, the cotton market is still oversupply, and the price market has always been weak.

In addition, the quality of new cotton has been declined due to early drought and late rain weather. The low spinnable index has led to a downturn in textile demand.

The large quantity and low price of cotton yarn are not conducive to cotton sales to a large extent.

The price of cotton is getting lower and lower, and the cost of planting and harvesting is very high. At the same time, the contradiction between the imbalance of output, quality and benefit is further highlighted. The supply of low grade cotton is relatively high, and the shortage of high-grade cotton is relatively low. After the reform of national storage policy, the problem of price fluctuation is becoming increasingly serious, which brings great pressure to cotton growers.

Although the state has implemented

The direct subsidy scheme and the mainland's quota subsidy policy, but cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting is hard to boost in the short term. It is estimated that the planting area of each cotton area will still fall to varying degrees in 2016, and the domestic planting area will fall to about 40 million mu, and the output will drop to about 400-450 tons.

Overall, domestic cotton supply will be loose in 2016, and demand is relatively stable, and prices will continue to slide.

In addition, due to the more prominent structural contradictions, the purchase and sale of cotton and the price gap will further widen.