2016 Structural Adjustment Of Agriculture, Downward Pressure On Cotton Prices

According to the Ministry of agriculture, the whole industry chain analysis and early warning team met, and in 2015, it was highly productive by agriculture.

As a result of the increase, weak demand and falling international prices, the market prices of agricultural products in China have generally declined, and the loss of farmers' incomes in the main producing areas has been greatly reduced.

Looking forward to 2016, agricultural structural adjustment, bulk product inventory, consumption demand changes and international price changes will be the important factors leading the operation of China's agricultural products market.

At the conclusion of the central rural work conference and the national agricultural work conference, we must focus on strengthening the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and promoting the restructuring of the farming, animal husbandry and fishery industries.

In 2016, the trial of fallow rotation will be carried out step by step, and the area of maize will be reduced by more than 10 million mu. The the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin

Planting area may continue to decline, the main producers of rape plant enthusiasm frustrated, autumn and winter rape area reduced by more than 20%.

To strengthen the supply side reform of agriculture, the key is to stock up, reduce costs and make up the shortage of agricultural products. Under the current high level of stock of staple agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar, accelerating inventory digestion will increase effective supply of agricultural products market, especially for grain, cotton and oilseeds.

From the demand side, the total volume of processing and consumption of agricultural products is expected to remain basically stable, and the consumption structure will be accelerated. With the rapid development of e-commerce, the consumption demand of high-quality, specialized and branded agricultural products will continue to grow.

World grain production is still at a historic high level. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the US Department of agriculture predict that the international grain price will continue to decline in 2016. It is expected that the price inversion of agricultural products will continue at home and abroad, and that the prices of agricultural products, especially livestock products, will remain high. However, with the decline of corn prices, the import scale of corn substitutes, such as sorghum and barley, which has increased significantly over the past two years, is expected to gradually decline.

Considering the factors of comprehensive production, inventory, consumption and import, it is estimated that the price of main agricultural products will continue to be running weak in 2016, and the risk of some agricultural products being unsalable and difficult to sell will be increased.

Wheat production and demand are expected to be basically balanced.

In 2016, the minimum purchase price of wheat remained unchanged from the previous year. The sowing area of winter wheat increased steadily, and the seedling demand was good. Feed demand was at a low level. The price of wheat was expected to fluctuate slightly at the lowest purchase price level, and the price trend of common wheat will continue to be weaker than that of high-quality wheat.

Rice supply and demand is relatively loose.

In 2016, the minimum purchase price of rice is expected to be basically stable. With the acceleration of the rice storage in Thailand and other main producing countries, the rigid growth of consumption and the slight depreciation of the renminbi, the pressure of import price driven by domestic and foreign prices is expected to ease, and the downward pressure of low end rice prices is expected to be great, and the price of good quality rice will be stable.

The high inventory level of corn will lead to a loose market supply stage.

With the gradual decline in market prices, processing demand is expected to resume growth, while imports of sorghum and barley price advantage weakened, the import of substitutes is expected to decrease.

In addition, domestic production has entered the active reduction cycle, and the price of corn market in 2016 is expected to stabilize before falling, and gradually stabilize in the fall.

The supply of live sows will be greatly reduced. The supply and demand of live pigs in the first half of 2016 will continue to be in a tight balance since the second half of 2015. The price is expected to rise slightly.

With the improvement of breeding efficiency, pig farms continue to grow again, and import is likely to increase further. The supply of pork market is adequate. If there is no major epidemic, the annual pork price increase will not be too large.

Poultry products are expected to increase slightly in 2016, thanks to the US bird flu and China's ban on imports of US poultry products.

Under the influence of urbanization and the "two child" policy, consumption of eggs is expected to rise steadily.

The recovery of dairy products and the recovery of international prices will support domestic raw milk prices.

The tight supply and demand pattern of beef will continue and the price will run high.

The production of mutton sheep continued to grow, which was affected by import shocks and consumption decline, and the prices of sheep and mutton in main producing areas may continue to decline.

Domestic demand for aquatic products is stable and demand for foreign products is sluggish, and prices are expected to be basically stable.

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According to the latest forecast of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in November 2015, the global cotton output in 2015 reached 23 million 920 thousand tons and consumed 25 million 50 thousand tons. In addition to China, the inventory consumption ratio was 52%, the supply and demand situation remained loose, and domestic cotton demand did not improve significantly. Under high storage pressure, cotton prices were expected to remain low.

Due to the obvious decrease of cotton area and total output in 2015, the cotton area in the mainland continued to shrink. It is estimated that the speed of cotton going to inventory will accelerate and there will be little room for cotton prices to fall sharply.

According to the latest prediction by the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar production in the 2015/16 season will end for more than 5 consecutive years, and the output will be less than 3 million 500 thousand tons, which will help the long-term stabilization and recovery of sugar prices.

China's sugar production is expected to drop to about 10 million tons during the 2015/2016 season, sugar consumption will increase to about 15 million 500 thousand tons, and sugar production and demand gap will expand.

However, due to high inventory level and large price gap at home and abroad, China's sugar market will still be oversupplied in the short term, and the market will remain weak.

In 2016, the supply of global soybean and rapeseed was still sufficient, and the level of domestic edible oil storage remained high. Oil and oil prices were expected to continue to follow the international market to maintain a weak shock pattern.

With the continuous increase of imports and the continuous decline of domestic oilseed production, the self sufficiency rate of edible oil in 2016 may be reduced to about 25%.

The planting area of the whole country is expected to be relatively stable and the market supply is adequate.

Affected by the rising cost of planting costs, vegetable prices are expected to rise steadily.

In 2015, fruit production continued to increase in China, especially in apple and banana production.

Coupled with the significant increase in fresh fruit imports and the sharp expansion of the trade deficit, the overall price of fruit is expected to be running weak in 2016.