PTA: A Rally Has Been Staged Near The End Of The Year.

Recently, although crude oil prices are still lingering low, the domestic chemicals market seems to be ignoring. A wave of rally has been staged at the end of the year, and the PTA price has rebounded more than 200 points from the bottom.

As the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream demand enterprises are facing a holiday. The operating rate has been gradually declining, and the demand for PTA will be reduced. At the same time, the raw material terminal PX also lacks sufficient support strength. It is expected that the PTA price will fall back later.

Judging from the traditional law, the operation rate of polyester enterprises and terminal Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined significantly due to the lower factories' holidays before the Spring Festival. The decline period usually starts from a month before the Spring Festival.

Among them,

The operating rate has dropped by about 10%, while the load of weaving enterprises has dropped to below 20%, and the adjustment of the downstream load has gradually started.

By contrast, PTA factories are not affected by holidays, and the overall average operating rate is around 70%.

However, in addition to long-term parking capacity, the actual start-up load is around 87%.

In terms of new capacity, Jiangyin Hon two phase 2 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA new plant is initially planned to be put into operation in late January.

The reduction of demand will not be conducive to inventory digestion in the PTA market.

Under the mode that supply continues to expand and demand is seriously insufficient, PTA price pressure downward will be a big probability event.

After the Fed raised interest rates, oversupply has become an important factor affecting the oil market. Oil prices have been weighed down by the OPEC member countries' non production cuts and the sustained high US stocks.

The PX market is also not optimistic, because of January 2016.

The negotiations broke down again, the PX market lacked price support, and production and processing profits also declined.

Although the domestic PX operating rate is less than 60%, the output has been greatly reduced. But on the news side, the 1 million 600 thousand ton / year PX device of the Ningbo CICC Petrochemical Company will be reopened in the near future in December 2015, and the domestic supply will be restored.

In addition, a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PX facility in India will be put into operation in late January, under the pressure of increased supply.

Prices continue to be weak.

In the whole PTA industry chain, the PTA and polyester industry in the middle link are the most difficult.

After a short profit from late October 2015 to early December, PTA production enterprises returned to the loss model in the last month, with a loss of more than 200 yuan / tonne.

At the same time, although polyester polyester price has been repeatedly low, it has not changed the situation of cash flow loss and high inventory in polyester market.

Polyester production and sales rate is difficult to balance, especially the short fiber production and sales rate is also in a low position for a long time. Most downstream manufacturers sell mainly with rigid demand, and the purchase of PTA is relatively large.

Due to the huge pressure from the end of the year, the factory was forced to introduce a maintenance plan and increase the discount rate under the pressure of inventory.

Against this background, polyester prices are hard to change.