Looking Forward To The Pformation Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2016 Is Still The Top Priority.

By the end of the year, there will be many summing up topics.

Although the growth of the clothing industry is flat,

The clothing sector is not lacking in attention.

Among them, the pformation of mergers and acquisitions camp Bull Stock.

Looking forward to 2016, in the background of the difficulty of explosive growth of terminal demand, pformation is still a hot spot in the industry.

In 2016, the external factors of the industry are expected to improve, and cotton prices and international crude oil continue to be low. This will help maintain stable business costs. The devaluation of the renminbi is expected to benefit export oriented enterprises, and the industry's leading layout of overseas capacity will upgrade the industry from low-cost advantages to industrial chain advantages.

In addition, the industry's "13th Five-Year plan" will encourage smart manufacturing and industrial fiber usage to continue to grow, and leading enterprises in sub sectors are expected to improve their performance.

End of inventory

In 2015 1-9, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 10.4% year-on-year, down 1.5 percentage points from last year.

Terminal consumption is wandering at the bottom without obvious warming trend.

Since 2015, although clothing consumption has basically continued the weak trend in 2014, the growth rate has stabilized, and has steadily increased in a few months.

The 1-9 month year-on-year growth rate was 10.2%, which is similar to that of the same period last year. Although clothing consumption has not recovered, there have been signs of recovery in the subdivision area.

According to the Research Report of Shen Wan Hongyuan, the adjustment order of sub sectors is generally sports shoes, casual wear, home textiles, men's shoes, men's wear, men's wear and women's clothing.

At present, the sub industry has already arrived.

The industry is expected to have a strong elasticity of bottom line performance for men's clothing industry in 2016, and the industry of women's underwear and baby industry is still at a relatively fast growth stage. High-end men and women's clothing is at a low level and needs to be revived.

There are two major trends in the development of industry companies.

First is channel integration, the channel is more flat, and the supply chain efficiency is improved.

Take Anta, Semir and other companies as an example, take the initiative to reduce the level of agents, grasp the operation of terminal data and channels, reduce the rate of increase in price, enhance the performance price ratio of products, and finally achieve the goal of expanding terminal sales.

Secondly, it is platform based, pforming from heavy assets to light assets, becoming a resource integrator rather than a producer, becoming a large platform connecting suppliers and distributors, and improving the utilization rate of resources, such as Hai Lan's home, Xinmin technology and so on.

Merger and pformation will continue

Although the textile and garment industry has a certain anti cyclical capability, with the growth rate entering the new normal, the industry has been a high incidence area of capital operation around the pformation and upgrading. It is expected that 2016 will still be a great year for M & a pformation.

From the perspective of pformation, the main idea of pformation is to build an ecological circle around the main industry and extend the industrial chain.

In the first two kinds of capital operation, it is still a common way to set a more determined target for growth.

Sports industry will be one of the main directions of industry pformation.

With the introduction of more market-oriented means in sports industry, it is estimated that by 2025, the total scale of sports industry will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the sports industry will usher in ten years of gold.

At present, the production and sales of sporting goods, clothing, shoes and hats are slowing down. The sports service industry with high added value and high profit rate (upstream sports resources and medium stream media) has been in a state of depression for a long time.

Traditional sports clothing enterprises need to find a breakthrough and integrate the upstream resources into the industrial chain, which will be the trend of future development.

Listed companies already exist

Many companies are planning sports industry in various directions.

The fundamentals of children's wear industry are obviously better than those of other sub sectors.

With the full liberalization of the baby boom and the second child policy and the growth of the total disposable income of the residents, the consumption intention of children's clothing is gradually increasing.

According to the "2012-2015 children's wear industry report" released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total output value of children's clothing industry increased by 25% to 30% annually. It is estimated that the market volume of infant clothing and daily necessities will reach 227 billion 980 million yuan this year, and the scale of children's clothing industry will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2017.

And with the further improvement of industry concentration, small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually be eliminated, resources will be gathered to leading enterprises and the core competitiveness will be promoted.

Facing the considerable market prospect, clothing brand enterprises are accelerating the layout of children's clothing industry. Most of the leading brands in the existing industry are in the benign development stage driven by extension expansion + endogenous growth.

With the increasing emphasis on the safety, comfort, fashion and compatibility of children's clothing, the industry share is gradually concentrated on the leading brand companies.

The "she economy" around the huge consumption market of women is another hot spot of pformation.

According to statistics, the number of female consumer groups in China has reached 480 million, and this group of consumers has more income and more opportunities.

"Her economy" related consumer industries involve a wide range, and the market capacity is at least 5 trillion yuan, which is expected to become a draught for the continuous growth of the consumer industry in the future.

As the main force of the consumer market, the female group shows higher consumption expenditure elasticity and purchase enthusiasm in the rising stage of disposable income and social status.

In terms of industry, the growth and investment opportunities of clothing, underwear, cosmetics, medical beauty, tourism, jewelry and other markets in women's optional consumer goods are higher than that of essential consumer goods, and will become one of the main growth drivers of the optional consumer industry.

In addition, the rapid development of the Internet has also spawned the business model of "her economy".

For example, all kinds of vertical electric providers and social business providers based on women, and many of the booming O2O companies.

These marks have some potential relevance to textile and garment stocks.

In terms of listed companies, the group has carried out many overseas mergers and acquisitions around the fashion ecological circle, which mainly involves cosmetics and other industries, and has shown positive performance in improving market value.

Cross border electricity providers, online shopping category mainly concentrated on clothing shoes and hats.

China's e-commerce research center showed that in the first half of 2015, the scale of cross-border e-commerce pactions in China was 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.8% over the same period and a penetration rate of 17.3%.

Under the current situation of import and export trade downturn, cross-border electricity providers show a vigorous development trend.

Over the past five years, the scale of cross-border e-commerce pactions has expanded rapidly from 840 billion yuan to 3 trillion and 750 billion yuan, the compound growth rate has reached 34.88%, and the penetration rate has increased from 4% to 14.2%, and the future is expected to continue to improve.

Analysts pointed out that the industry is still at an early stage of development, and is expected to be one of the important directions for the pformation of related companies.

Multiple benefits to improve performance

Beginning in the second half of 2015, influenced by the Fed's rate hike expectations, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was abrupt, and it fell below the 6.5 integer threshold on the first day of 2016.

The industry believes that the continuation of the depreciation trend of the RMB in 2016 is a big probability event.

After many years of development, the middle and high-end textile manufacturing enterprises have accumulated the advantages of scale of production capacity, supporting system of industrial chain, R & D capability and large number of customers. Under the strong dollar background, the export of the industry will obviously benefit from the depreciation of the RMB, and the short-term competitive strength brought by the depreciation will enhance the export orders.

On the other hand, under the background of currency devaluation, the exchange gains and losses arising from the settlement of orders in US dollar will enhance the performance of the company.

Companies with relatively large export volume, stable orders and high gross profit margins in the industry will be the first to benefit, such as Lu Tai A, Dayang creation, Hong Kong, Japan and so on.

In addition, the continuous rise of domestic labor costs is also accelerating the pace of textile industry going out. It is expected that the pfer of industry leading part of the low end capacity to Southeast Asia in 2016 and overseas mergers and acquisitions that seek tariff and low cost advantages will continue.

The low cost of the textile and chemical fiber industry in 2015 is expected to benefit the industry leader in 2016.

In 2015, with the temporary withdrawal and storage policy of cotton temporarily withdrawing from the historical stage, the average price of cotton dropped to about 14000 yuan / ton from the time of collecting and storing 19000 yuan / ton, while the international oil price also fell off cliff type. This made some enterprises that purchase large quantities of raw materials with high price in the early stage of losing money. In the four quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, their performance was at a low point.

With the high priced inventory digested, the industry cost is expected to improve in 2016.

The textile and garment industry is in the competitive industry, and industry policy has limited impact on performance.

However, in the "13th Five-Year plan" of the textile industry, which is basically completed, intelligent manufacturing and industrial fibers are expected to become the key direction of development.

Among them, industrial fiber is expected to maintain high growth rate of two figures, the industry growth space is determined.