The Negative Growth Of Foreign Trade Has Finally Become A Reality, And This Result Can Not Be Avoided.

In 2015, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 24 trillion and 590 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014. The negative growth of foreign trade for the first time in six years has finally become a reality. The data released by the General Administration of Customs show that the 2015 double negative market expectations for the whole year have finally become a reality and the first negative growth in foreign trade in six years.

Huang Songping, a spokesman for the General Administration of customs, quoted data as saying that in December 2015, the leading index of foreign trade was 31.2, down 0.8 from November, indicating that export pressure is still relatively large in the first quarter of this year. But he is not clear about the import and export targets for the whole year.

He analyzed that the main reason for the adjustment of China's exports was low external demand. The decline in imports was mainly due to the decline in the prices of major commodities in the world and the downward pressure on the domestic economy. On the whole, he believes that China's trade price conditions have improved significantly and foreign trade benefits have been improved. If we look at the global relative value, China will still maintain the leading position in the world of total trade in goods in 2015, and export market share will also reach 13%, which will continue to increase compared with the previous year.

In 2015, due to a deeper decline in imports, the favorable balance of business expanded significantly. This performance is far away from the 6% target set by the State Council at the beginning of the year, and has also hit the most recent 6 years in the decline of imports. The recent double negative growth occurred in 2009, but contrary to the current situation, exports fell far more than imports.

In 2015, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 24 trillion and 590 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014. Among them, exports of 14 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 1.8%; imports 10 trillion and 450 billion yuan, down 13.2%; trade surplus of 3 trillion and 690 billion yuan, 56.7% expansion. In 2009, China's exports declined by 16% and imports declined by 11.2%.

Apart from the recession of the global environment, the downward pressure on domestic economy and the decline of commodity prices, some details of Huang Songping's brief question and answer are still intriguing.

These detailed data reveal some of the facts and trends that are often overlooked. A spokesman for the General Administration of Customs said that bilateral trade between China and the European Union and Japan fell by 7.2% and 9.9% respectively in 2015. Investment enterprise The import and export of state-owned enterprises decreased by 6.5% and 12.1% respectively, and the import and export of processing trade dropped by 10.6%.

Over the same period, textiles accounted for more than 20% of the total value of exports. clothing The export value of the 7 main categories of labour intensive products, such as luggage, footwear, toys, furniture and plastic products, was 2 trillion and 930 billion yuan, down 1.7%. Among them, exports of toys, furniture, bags and plastic products continued to grow. Huang Songping noted in particular that "the export value of traditional labour intensive products has dropped by 1.7%, which is also rare in recent years."

Behind this detail, Huang Songping did not mention it. foreign trade Core factor: exchange rate. This is the key point for most foreign trade enterprises to settle their foreign exchange and profits.

For the Chinese middle class, Hongkong has no longer been the first place to buy and sell in the past year. Due to the devaluation of the yen and the euro, a large number of Chinese tourists have moved to Japan and Europe.

In the 3 years since Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo was in office, the overall depreciation rate of the yen has been roughly 40%. Maintaining a lower exchange rate is also a major probability event for the next one to two years. The euro depreciated by 18% in July 2014, and the central parity of the yuan only depreciated by 6.4%.

The RMB exchange rate has been strong, while promoting overseas "buy and buy", it has led to a sharp decline in the competitiveness of Chinese export enterprises to these areas, and the cost has been greatly improved. This is also the reason why China has dropped nearly 10% of the EU's first and third largest trading partners, the European Union and Japan's bilateral trade.

After the RMB was included in the SDR, last week, the central bank announced the central parity of RMB against the US dollar for 4 consecutive days, and gradually returned to normal.

There are close policy people to our reporter analysis, the exchange rate has fluctuated in recent period, but will not fall off cliff, will roughly balance in the 1 US dollar to 6.7 yuan level. This should allow foreign trade enterprises to catch their breath and have a slight cushion in the coming months.

Market participants also generally believe that last year's 8. 11 and the devaluation of the renminbi were a correction to the earlier overestimation and a return to a balanced and reasonable exchange rate. In fact, the depreciation of the US in 2008~2009 and the depreciation of euro and yen in 2014 are much larger than that of RMB.