Looking Forward To The Future: We Must Not Be Lucky To Get A Warmer Trade.

In December 2015, China's total import and export value was 2 trillion and 480 billion yuan, of which exports were 1 trillion and 430 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, and imports of 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan, down 4%, all higher than the market expectations.

But some pretty data also raise questions.

The first question points to the customs special supervision area.

It is reported that, according to the trade pattern, the December 2015 trade year-on-year change can be seen. The logistics goods in the customs special supervision area are the most positive sources of import and export.

The export of logistics goods by customs special supervision area is about 82 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 39.6% over the same period, and imports of about 122 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year.

In terms of exports, the export volume of logistics goods in special customs supervision areas is as high as 2 times the increment of general trade exports, while processing trade exports are still weaker in the same period. In terms of imports, both general trade and processing trade are in negative growth, but the increment of imports of logistics goods in special customs surveillance areas has reached a new high of the year.

Due to various reasons, such as region, tax revenue and sea Amoy, the import and export volume of customs special supervision area has risen sharply.

But in the global shipping and aviation difficult to survive, the BDI index and the Shanghai container index are all at a low background. Such a high increase is worrying.

In the first quarter of the year-on-year growth rate of exports, the export of crude oil and furniture accounted for a high level, while clothing and shoes and hats decreased slightly, and the mechanical and electrical products increased by 1.2%.

The number of exports of major commodities such as textiles, clothing, machinery and electricity, high and new technology increased year by year.

The growth rate is negative, which reflects the pulling down of the exchange rate after the new exchange reform.

However, if this data is corroborated with other data, it shows that the import and export data may still have some moisture.

The second question is for the surrounding area.

The import and export data between the mainland and Hongkong are more sensitive to the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate.

In December 2015, the mainland's exports to Hongkong increased by 10.8% from a year ago to a new high of one and a half years.

Societe Generale Securities believes that this may be the same month in the offshore, offshore RMB spreads widened to bring arbitrage space, funds borrowed trade channels arbitrage related.

The electronic export in Taiwan and Japan's machinery index can see the global trade.

In January 8th, Taiwan released the latest trade data. In 2015, the total export and import value of Taiwan decreased by 10.6% and 16.5% respectively.

Exports to the mainland and Hongkong dropped by 12.3% over the previous year, with a decrease of more than 15 billion NT dollars.

In addition, Taiwan's exports to ASEAN and Europe have dropped by more than 10%.

Exports slump for eleventh consecutive months in December 2015, the lowest in 5 years.

Excluding the Spring Festival, this is the single month low since May 2010.

Exports of minerals, electronic products, basic metals and their products, chemicals and other categories of products were "significantly attenuated" and "suppressed export performance for the whole year".

Japan's machinery orders data show that the industry's situation is worsening.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 14.4% in November 2015 compared with the previous month, the first decline in 3 months, down 7.9% from analysts' forecasts and the biggest monthly decline in 18 months.

The electronics industry in Taiwan and the machinery industry in Japan are the upper reaches of the related industry chain. These two data are bad, at least it can prove that the export of electronics manufacturing industry in mainland China is not so good.

Transportation and trade data are hard to match, and raw materials and excess capacity are exported. The problem is that the trade surplus at a great cost is supposed to constitute exchange rate support.

The overall balance is still running out, and the balance of payments account may be deficit.

Even optimistic interpretation, because of the downward trend of exchange rate and the rise of government investment, has stimulated exports. From the perspective of classification and global situation, we can not take a chance on trade recovery.

Data may be biased at the end of 2015.

Goldman Sachs

It is said that some local government officials are still looking at the target of growth again, and there is a motive for pushing up export data at the end of the year.

The Spring Festival in 2016 is earlier than 2015, which tends to make the data in January higher. Therefore, the export data in January are expected to be improved due to the Spring Festival effect. However, this deviation will be reversed in February. Whether the cumulative data in the 1~2 months can continue to improve will be wait-and-see.