For The First Time In Six Years, The Negative Growth Of Foreign Trade Has Finally Become A Reality.

In January 13th,

The data released indicate that the 2015 double negative market expectations for the whole year have finally become a reality and the first negative growth in foreign trade in six years.

Huang Songping, a spokesman for the General Administration of customs, quoted data as saying that in December 2015, the leading index of foreign trade was 31.2, down 0.8 from November, indicating that export pressure is still relatively large in the first quarter of this year.

But he is not clear about the import and export targets for the whole year.

He analyzed that the main reason for the adjustment of China's exports was low external demand. The decline in imports was mainly due to the decline in the prices of major commodities in the world and the downward pressure on the domestic economy.

On the whole, he believes that China's trade price conditions have improved significantly and foreign trade benefits have been improved.

If we look at the global relative value, China will still maintain the leading position in the world of total trade in goods in 2015, and export market share will also reach 13%, which will continue to increase compared with the previous year.

In 2015, due to a deeper decline in imports, the favorable balance of business expanded significantly.

This performance is far away from the 6% target set by the State Council at the beginning of the year, and has also hit the most recent 6 years in the decline of imports.

The recent double negative growth occurred in 2009, but contrary to the current situation, exports fell far more than imports.

In 2015, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 24 trillion and 590 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014.

Among them, exports of 14 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 1.8%; imports 10 trillion and 450 billion yuan, down 13.2%; trade surplus of 3 trillion and 690 billion yuan, 56.7% expansion.

In 2009, China's exports declined by 16% and imports declined by 11.2%.

Apart from the recession of the global environment, the downward pressure on domestic economy and the decline of commodity prices, some details of Huang Songping's brief question and answer are still intriguing.

These detailed data reveal some of the facts and trends that are often overlooked.

A spokesman for the General Administration of Customs said that in 2015, bilateral trade between China and the European Union and Japan decreased by 7.2% and 9.9% respectively; foreign investment enterprises and state owned enterprises decreased by 6.5% and 12.1% respectively; and the import and export of processing trade dropped by 10.6%.

Over the same period, textiles accounted for more than 20% of the total value of exports.

The export value of the 7 main categories of labour intensive products, such as luggage, footwear, toys, furniture and plastic products, was 2 trillion and 930 billion yuan, down 1.7%. Among them, exports of toys, furniture, bags and plastic products continued to grow.

Huang Songping noted in particular that "the export value of traditional labour intensive products has dropped by 1.7%, which is also rare in recent years."

Details 1: trade with EU and Japan decreased by 7.2% and 9.9% respectively.

Behind this detail, there is a core factor of foreign trade that Huang Songping did not focus on: exchange rate.

This is the key point for most foreign trade enterprises to settle their foreign exchange and profits.

For the Chinese middle class, Hongkong has no longer been the first place to buy and sell in the past year. Due to the devaluation of the yen and the euro, a large number of Chinese tourists have moved to Japan and Europe.

In the 3 years since Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo was in office, the overall depreciation rate of the yen has been roughly 40%.

Maintaining a lower exchange rate is also a major probability event for the next one to two years.

The euro depreciated by 18% in July 2014, and the central parity of the yuan only depreciated by 6.4%.

The RMB exchange rate has been strong, while promoting overseas "buy and buy", it has led to a sharp decline in the competitiveness of Chinese export enterprises to these areas, and the cost has been greatly improved.

This is also the reason why China has dropped nearly 10% of the EU's first and third largest trading partners, the European Union and Japan's bilateral trade.

After the RMB was included in the SDR, last week, the central bank announced the central parity of RMB against the US dollar for 4 consecutive days, and gradually returned to normal.

There are close policy people to our reporter analysis, the exchange rate has fluctuated in recent period, but will not fall off cliff, will roughly balance in the 1 US dollar to 6.7 yuan level.

This should allow foreign trade enterprises to catch their breath and have a slight cushion in the coming months.

Market participants also generally believe that last year's 8. 11 and the devaluation of the renminbi were a correction to the earlier overestimation and a return to a balanced and reasonable exchange rate.

In fact, the depreciation of the US in 2008~2009 and the depreciation of euro and yen in 2014 are much larger than that of RMB.

At the 13 day press conference, Huang Songping said, "the change of exchange rate will affect China's import and export situation to a certain extent.

We will continue to focus on exchange rate changes and trade changes. "

Details two: the export of labor intensive industries is down more than expected, requiring employment pressure.

In 2009, although China's overall exports fell by 16%, the export of major labour intensive products decreased by a year earlier than that of the same period.

Take textile exports as an example. In December, textile exports increased by 25.2%.

During the year, textile exports fell by 9.9%, far below the average level of 16%.

In order to maintain labor-intensive industries

In the export commodities of 2009, China has adjusted the export tax rebate rate for 7 consecutive times since August 2008, involving a total export of 676 billion 20 million US dollars.

By 2015, the export value of traditional labour intensive products had dropped by 1.7%.

Textile exports are also negative growth throughout the year.

Correspondingly, the import and export of foreign invested enterprises and processing trade decreased by 6.5% and 10.6% respectively.

Because China's processing trade is mostly from foreign-funded enterprises, a large part of foreign investment enterprises are engaged in processing trade in the stock market. These two data also match the export decline of labor-intensive industries.

Zhou Shijian, a senior researcher at the Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, was responsible for the related affairs in the Ministry of Commerce. He pointed out to the first financial daily that over the years, the Ministry of commerce only counted the newly established foreign-invested enterprises, but failed to cover the amount of divestment or departure.

He believes that the employment problem that may be caused by the labor intensive foreign investment withdrawal is a matter of concern.

According to the data of China Light Industry Import and Export Association, in 2020, Nike shoes factory will be pferred from China to Vietnam.

In 2000, 80% of Nike's processing plants in China, only 13% in Vietnam, and by 2013, the proportion of Vietnam has risen to 43%.

This is also our reporter's experience of many years of field interviews with foreign trade enterprises. The pfer of labor-intensive enterprises from mainland China to the low cost labor force in surrounding areas, such as Vietnam, is already the trend of the times.

With the outflow of these foreign capital, some domestic factory workers may face unemployment.

Details three: mobile phone export growth reached 8.8%

With such a sluggish overall export level, the growth of mobile phone exports to 8.8% is worth celebrating.

This includes at least two factors: first, Foxconn, a well-known international mobile phone company such as apple, has exported a lot of mobile phones through China's Shanghai port.

Secondly, some smart phone manufacturers in China are becoming more and more saturated with the domestic market, turning from the blue ocean to the red sea of price killing.

This trend started from 2~3 years ago, and gradually emerged in macro data in the depressed export environment last year.

According to the historical data of market research firm Canalys, the total number of smart phone shipments in the second quarter of 2013 was 250 million, of which 39% accounted for 39% of China.

Now, the huge advertisement of HUAWEI watch has appeared in the core area of Warsaw, Poland.

ZTE, TCL, cool, Lenovo are also closely followed by the layout of the European market.

Lenovo has officially entered the US market through acquiring some patents on Motorola's cell phone.

Those two or three line mobile phone manufacturers whose patents are not strong are starting to enter India, and ASEAN, Latin America and Africa are growing more potential emerging markets.

On the whole, in 2015, China's trade performance in emerging markets such as ASEAN and India was relatively good, with a 2.5% increase in India, which is better than the overall situation of imports and exports.

India is the focus of next year's game.

The demographic dividend in this market is beginning to show, and the economic growth is accelerating.

Data show that in the fourth quarter of 2014, 21 million 600 thousand smart phones were sold in the India market, up 90% from the same period last year, and about 65% of smart phones were priced at less than 200 dollars.

Take the most striking millet as an example. In April 2015, Xiaomi launched the first mobile phone for overseas consumers in India, saying it became the largest mobile phone producer in India in 3~5.

Although it soon encountered allegations of patent infringement by Ericsson, some industries still took root in India through consultation.