Analysis Of PMI Experts In Manufacturing And Non Manufacturing Industries In December 2015

December 2015 China

Purchasing managers' index and non manufacturing business activity index double rise -- Interpretation of Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics service industry, December 2015, manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI

In January 1, 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing issued the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing and non manufacturing industries.

In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

1. The purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry rose slightly.

In December, manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month.

Main operating characteristics: first, supply side and demand side double warming.

The production index is 52.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month.

The new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, returning to the top of the critical point.

The order index is 47.5%, although it continues to be below the critical point, it has picked up 1.1 percentage points.

Two is the sustained release of consumer demand and the steady growth of consumer goods manufacturing.

Consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, up 1 percentage points from last month.

Automobile manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea industry continued to expand rapidly, PMI is in the 55% higher business range.

In 2015, the PMI value of consumer goods manufacturing industry was 52.9%, which has been expanding and is 3 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing sector.

Three is the upgrading of industrial structure.

The PMI of high tech manufacturing is 53%, with an annual average value of 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

Computer and electronic communications equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries continue to maintain the expansion trend, PMI is in the economic zone above 52%.

Four, with the recovery of production, the purchasing intention of enterprises has been enhanced.

The purchasing volume index rose to 50.3% above the critical point, the highest since August 2015.

Although PMI has picked up slightly this month, it is still below the critical point, and is lower than the same level in the same period.

Recently, crude oil prices have dropped to the lowest level for many years. The producer price index and purchase price index of raw materials have continued to decline. At the end of the year, capital shortage is more prominent, and the production and operation of enterprises in related industries are affected. The downward pressure on manufacturing industry is still greater.

According to the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, but it continued to expand; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, still below the critical point; PMI of small enterprises was 44.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and the whole year is in the contraction area.

Two, non manufacturing business activity index continues to rise

In December 2015, China's non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from last month, rising for two consecutive months, the highest point since 2015, and the driving force for expansion is relatively strong.

According to the industry, the overall trend of the service industry is steady.

Business activity index was 53.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, higher than the annual average value of 1 percentage points, two consecutive months of recovery.

Affected by factors such as holidays and year-end promotions, the service industries related to residents' consumption this month are more active.

The business activity index of software, retail, postal express, warehousing, distribution and other industries are located in the relatively high economic zone, and business volume has achieved rapid growth.

Banking, securities, insurance, etc.

The index of business activity for two consecutive months is in the high and strong economic range of more than 60%, showing strong expansion trend.

At the same time, the new order index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, and the demand for service industry continued to rise.

In addition, the business activity index of pportation, accommodation, catering, tourism and other industries continued to be below the critical point, but with the approaching of new year's day and Spring Festival, business conditions are expected to improve.

The production and market demand of construction industry is improving.

Business activity index was 58.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and production continued to maintain rapid growth.

The new order index was 55%, up 5.5 percentage points from last month, up to above the critical point, and market demand rebounded.