Analysis Of China'S Textile Industry In 2015 And Export Forecast For 2016 Industries

2015 China

As a whole, the trend of "slowing down and stabilizing" has been achieved. The industry's quality and efficiency indicators are steady, and the industrial added value has increased by 6.3% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate is higher than the national level of industrial growth.

Scale declined, down 4.88% compared with the same period last year.

January 27th, China Textile Industry Federation 2015 economic operation analysis meeting

Convene.

Wang Tiankai, former president of the Federation of Chinese textile industry, Du Yuzhou, vice president and Secretary General Gao Yong, Vice Chairman Sun Shui TSE, Xu Wenying, Yang Jizhao, Xia Lingmin, deputy secretary of the Party committee, Chen Weikang, Secretary of the discipline inspection committee, and other leaders and professional associations and heads of various departments attended the meeting.

Industry current investment: an increase of 14.96% over the same period

In 2015, the scale of industrial investment continued to expand, and the number of new projects increased rapidly.

In 2015, China's textile industry completed 1 trillion and 191 billion 321 million yuan in fixed assets investment, an increase of 14.96% over the previous year, a growth rate of 1.59 percentage points higher than the previous year.

The number of new projects increased by 18.34% over the previous year, up 18.86 percentage points from the previous year.

From the perspective of regional investment structure, investment in the eastern and western regions has increased compared with the previous year, while investment in the central region has declined compared with the previous year.

Investment growth in the eastern region increased by 3.54 percentage points over the previous year, and the investment growth rate in the central region dropped by 1.03 percentage points over the previous year. The investment growth rate in the western region dropped by 2.38 percentage points over the previous year.

Exports: a year-on-year decrease of 4.88%

In 2015, the scale of industrial exports declined, and export volume and price dropped.

In 2015, China's textile and garment exports amounted to US $283 billion 850 million, down 4.88% from the same period last year.

In 2015 1~11, China's textile and clothing export prices fell by 1.43%, and the number of exports decreased by 4.3%.

From the point of view of export structure, textiles and clothing have declined.

In 2015 1~11, China's textile exports amounted to US $104 billion 974 million, down 2.53% compared to the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $158 billion 629 million, down 7.64% from the same period last year.

It should be noted that in the month of 2015 1~11, the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN were China's key export markets for textiles and clothing, accounting for 55.95% of China's total exports to the world, up 0.81 percentage points from 2014.

Meanwhile, in the month of 2015 1~11, the EU and Japanese markets declined significantly, accounting for 1.11 percentage points and 0.48 percentage points less than that of 2014.

Domestic sales: retail sales grew by 9.8% over the same period last year.

In 2015, the growth of industry domestic sales slowed down steadily.

In 2015, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 9.8% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the previous year, lower than the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in the same period, and the cumulative growth rate showed a downward trend in the second half of the year.

It is worth mentioning that the industry in 2015

The channel has maintained a relatively fast growth trend.

In 2015, the online retail sales of apparel products increased by 21.4% over the same period last year, but showed a continuous downward trend in 2015.

Profit: an increase of 6.83% over the same period

In 2015, the scale of profits of Enterprises above Designated Size continued to expand, and the growth rate was stable.

In 2015 1~11, China's textile industry realized a total profit of 332 billion 612 million yuan, an increase of 6.83% over the same period last year.

From the links of the industrial chain, the profit of chemical fiber industry and industrial industry has increased rapidly.

The chemical fiber industry increased by 24.13% compared to the same period last year, and the industry industry grew by 14.44% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the profit margin of the whole industry increased by 0.1 percentage points in 2015 compared with the same period last year. The 1~11 profit margin of cotton spinning, wool spinning and garment industry in 2015 decreased slightly compared with the same period last year.

Analysis and prediction: raw materials: the situation is complex and changeable.

In 2016, the fundamentals of oversupply in the global cotton market have not changed, and the stock continues to expand. In addition to the appreciation of the US dollar, the international cotton price will be relatively low in 2015.

Although the direct subsidy measures for cotton planting have been implemented, the follow-up effect of the temporary purchasing and storage policy has not been eliminated, and the quality of domestic cotton has been seriously reduced.

Coordination of import quotas, cotton reserves, cotton management system and other policies on the industry's immediate impact.

In 2016, international oil prices will continue to face downward pressure in the short term. The price range of WTI futures will be 26~31 US dollars / barrel.

Low oil price is a strong support for raw material cost of chemical fiber enterprises.

Labor force: labor prices continue to rise

In 2016, affected by the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and narrowing of price increases, domestic labor prices rose somewhat slower than in 2015. However, the cost pressure is difficult to mitigate due to the influence of public employment preference.

In addition, domestic fuel power prices will continue to be low due to slow industrial growth and weak demand, which will help to alleviate the cost pressure of enterprises.

Exports: positive growth is expected

The global economy will recover slowly, with a slight increase in its growth rate, coupled with a low base of negative export growth in 2015. Textile exports in 2016 are expected to gradually stabilize and achieve positive growth, but the structural differences in different markets are relatively large.

It is worth mentioning that the meeting held that China's cotton spinning and knitted apparel has been accelerating outward movement. Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries continue to encroach on China's international market share. In the short run, although it can not pose a threat to China's international market share, long-term view of orders and capacity pfer can not be ignored.

Domestic sales: maintain steady growth

In 2016, the domestic demand market maintained a steady growth. The upgrading of consumption structure and the innovation of retail channels were obvious.

However, affected by the slowdown in macro-economic growth, it is difficult to accelerate the growth rate of clothing consumption. It is estimated that the growth of clothing retail sales above the quota will be slightly higher than that in 2015.

In addition, the de stocking of real estate will be conducive to the development of the home textile industry, and the advancement of the "one belt and one way" interconnection process will also promote the development of the industrial textile industry.

Production and benefits: target growth is expected to increase

Industrial exports in 2016 are expected to achieve positive growth, and domestic demand will also maintain steady growth, which will support the smooth operation of the industry.

Although the market competition is increasing, the cost of labor and other factors continues to increase, the problem of chemical fiber structural overcapacity has not yet been solved, but the effective implementation of policies and measures such as cost reduction and effective supply will improve the production and efficiency of the textile industry. It is expected that the main business revenue and gross profit will increase faster than in 2015.