In January, Foreign Trade Maintained A "Double Drop" Pattern. Holiday Factors Should Not Be Ignored.

In February 15th, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in January this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 1 trillion and 880 billion yuan, down 9.8% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 1 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 6.6%; imports 737 billion 540 million yuan, down 14.4%; trade surplus of 406 billion 200 million yuan, 12.2% expansion.

Data show that the latest issue of China

The leading index was 31.7, up 0.5 from last December, the first time the index has picked up since February 2015.

According to the online questionnaire survey, the export manager index of China was 33.4 in the month, up 0.7 from the previous month, the new export orders index and the comprehensive cost index of export enterprises were 33.3 and 29.9, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.2 respectively from the previous month.

"Initial judgment is that China's export pressure is expected to ease in the two quarter of this year."

Customs spokesman Huang Songping said.

Speed up fostering development advantages

In January, the export value of electromechanical products with high added value and labor-intensive products with traditional advantages were relatively good.

Among them, exports of electrical and electronic products dropped by 1.1%, and textiles, furniture, plastic products, bags, toys and so on all had a positive growth of 1.2% to 17.6%.

Huang Songping said that China's foreign trade has entered a critical period from "great progress" to "excellence in excellence". Foreign trade is faced with the current situation that some traditional advantages are gradually lost and new advantages have not been formed, and the environment that supports the rapid development of China's foreign trade has changed radically.

The urgent task is to speed up the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade and cultivate new advantages of foreign trade enterprises in international competition.

At the executive meeting of the State Council held in February 14th, the State Council made accelerated development services.

A series of arrangements to promote the optimization of foreign trade structure have been put forward. It is proposed that through the pilot development of service trade innovation and development, the pformation of foreign trade will be promoted and the competitiveness of the service industry will be enhanced.

In Li Jian's view, with the rapid development of new trade methods and formats such as cross-border electricity suppliers and market purchases, especially the opening up and innovation development of service trade, it will inject new vitality into the development of China's foreign trade. China's foreign trade is expected to extend further to the global value chain on the basis of maintaining 13% of the market share.

Holiday factors should not be ignored

Under normal circumstances, the import and export of foreign trade is greatly influenced by festivals such as new year's day and Spring Festival. The single month's foreign trade data are not enough to support the judgement of the whole year's situation. We need to consider the data in January, February and even the whole first quarter.

"From the seasonal law, the data in January are more affected by the Spring Festival effect.

Generally speaking, PMI imports and new export orders are generally low in the same month. "

Li Jian, director of the Institute of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said.

Data show that China's trade surplus reached a record high in January this year, indicating that imports are even more depressed than exports.

In response, the industry said that the Spring Festival earlier this year, most of the factories tend to rush ahead and work earlier, making exports relatively more concentrated, while the willingness to import has declined.

The continued decline in import growth indicates that domestic demand is still insufficient, which is basically consistent with the previously announced decline in China's manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI in January.

In contrast to the downturn in imports, the unexpected increase in export losses stems from the negative effects of the global economic downturn and market turbulence.

Experts said earlier

The promotion effect on exports is not obvious, while the expected low base effect has not been effective. This shows that the current import and export of foreign trade has not been substantially improved.

However, as the export lead index rebounded for the first time in 1 years, it indicates that China's exports will improve or improve in the future, and its pulling effect on China's economic growth is expected to be enhanced.

According to statistics, China's foreign trade directly or indirectly led to 180 million of employment last year, creating a national tax revenue of about 18%.

In 2015, China remained the world's leading trade in goods.

Private enterprises show strong vitality

Although the import and export data in January are not as good as expected, there are still some notable points.

The trade pattern is more reasonable, and the proportion of general trade import and export has increased.

In January, China's general trade imports and exports amounted to 1 trillion and 80 billion yuan, accounting for 57.4% of the total foreign trade value, up 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

Under the general trade terms, the surplus amounted to 254 billion 370 million yuan, an increase of 37.3%. In the same period, China's processing trade imports and exports were 533 billion 840 million yuan, accounting for 28.4% of total foreign trade, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

The surplus in processing trade was 157 billion 20 million yuan, narrowing 13.6%.

Trade diversification is steady and emerging market exports are doing well.

In January, the European Union, the United States and ASEAN remained the top three trading partners of China, with trade value of 290 billion 330 million yuan, 269 billion 890 million yuan and 234 billion 250 million yuan respectively.

At the same time, I have maintained a good momentum of exports to emerging markets such as India and other countries and regions along the belt.

Private enterprises showed strong trade vitality, trade accounted for, import and export growth rate maintained a positive growth.

In January, private enterprises imported and exported 773 billion 50 million yuan, an increase of 1.1%, accounting for 41.1% of the total value of foreign trade, representing a 4.4 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 567 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 1%; imports of 205 billion 450 million yuan, an increase of 1.2%.

It is worth mentioning that Guangdong, Jiangsu and other major provinces and cities in January import and export performance continued to be better than the overall.

Among them, the total value of Guangdong's imports and exports continues to rank first in the country, which is 462 billion 790 million yuan.

The total value of imports and exports of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian is lower than that of China's imports and exports in the same period.

Experts said that in the overall situation of foreign trade downturn, the import and export of these provinces still maintained a certain resilience, which is mainly due to its earlier foreign trade pformation.

The vast number of foreign trade enterprises should continue to speed up the adjustment of foreign trade structure, the pace of pformation, and continuously enhance the ability to participate in international market competition.