Cotton Industry Outlook In 2016 And 13Th Five-Year

2016 is the opening year of the thirteenth five year plan of the national economy, the third year of the new normal economic development, the first year of the structural reform of the supply side.

The industry should take the initiative to adapt to the new normal, promote the quality to the middle and high-end with the supply side structure reform, and lead the development of cotton information cotton industry with the "quality middle and high end".

The main goal.

Review of cotton industry in January and 2015

(1) reduction of total cotton output in China

The National Bureau of statistics released data (2015-12-18). In 2015, the total area of cotton planting in China was 56 million 984 thousand mu, minus 10%; the output per unit area was 98.4 kg / mu, increased by 0.8%; the total output was 5 million 605 thousand tons, or 9.3%.

In the market aspect, in 2015, the national cotton showed a "three minus two drop" situation, that is, the reduction of area, the reduction of the output, the decrease of total output, the drop of quality and the drop of cost.

First, the area is reduced.

Cotton sowed 60 million 100 thousand mu, minus 15 million 880 thousand mu, minus 20.9%.

Area reduction is affected by structural adjustment and competitiveness.

The two is reduction in production per unit area.

Monitoring production per unit area was 90.2 kg / mu, reduced 5.6 kg / mu, minus 5.8%.

The decrease in yield per unit area originates from the continuous high temperature in the Yellow River and Northwest China, while the Yangtze River increases.

The three is total production and reduction.

The total output was 5 million 428 thousand tons, or 1 million 954 thousand tons, or 26.5%.

Among them, the reduction in area accounts for 73.3% of the total production, and the decrease in unit production accounts for 26.7% of the total production.

The four is quality decline and high grade ratio reduction.

(two) target price is down, seed cotton sale is slow, price continues to fall.

According to statistics, farmers' seed cotton sold for 5.60 yuan / kg in 9-12 months in 2015, down 4.3% from 5.85 yuan / kg in the same period in 2014.

Seed cotton sale was slow. By December 31, 2015, the national cotton seed sale rate was 65.5%, slowing down by 21.5 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, that is, there are still more than 30% seed cotton in cotton farmers.

In 2015 1-11 cotton yarn output was 36 million 545 thousand tons, an increase of 3.7% compared with the same period last year. Cotton production in 31 billion 700 million months was 31 billion 700 million meters, a slight decrease of 1.2% in the same ratio, which was lower than that of GDP6.9%.

2015

Clothing exports amounted to US $283 billion 849 million, an increase of -4.9% over the same period.

Domestic clothing shoes and hats above limit retail sales of 13434 yuan, an increase of 9.8%, down 1.1 percentage points.

In 2015, 1-11 tons of raw cotton imported 1 million 284 thousand tons, an increase of -40.8% compared with the same period last year; the import amount was 2 billion 259 million US dollars, an increase of -49.9%.

The average price of imports of raw cotton is 2045.67 US dollars / ton, a slight increase of 0.6% compared with 2034.43 US dollars / ton in 2014.

In 2015, 1-11 tons of imported cotton yarn 2 million 160 thousand tons, an increase of 19.6%; export cotton yarn 315 thousand tons, an increase of -21.1%.

(four) domestic and foreign cotton prices have dropped sharply and the price differentials have been narrowed.

In 2015, the average price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 13242 yuan / ton, down 22.87% from the same period last year.

The CotlookA index (FE) is 70.35 cents / pound, down 15.4%.

Domestic and foreign spreads narrowed.

The average weighted average price of the imported cotton 1% tariff in March 1-10 was 2102 yuan / ton, which was 45.1% yuan lower than the 3827 yuan / ton in the same period in 2014.

The weighted price difference of sliding tax is -274 yuan / ton, which is 2395 yuan / ton less than the same period in 2014, a decrease of 111.4%.

Cotton industry outlook in two and 2016

(1) the global economic recovery is weak.

In 2016, the eighth year of the global financial crisis, the global economic recovery is still weak. The uncertainty of commodities and oil prices, geopolitical risks and other uncertainties, IMF1 forecast 2016 global economic growth rate of 3.4%, down 0.2 percentage points compared with October 2015, the World Bank forecast 2.9% in January, 0.4 percentage points lower than the January 2015 forecast.

In 2016, the global economy entered a mediocre period (Lagarde).

It is predicted that cotton textile consumption in 2016 will show a weak "resumptive" growth and a weak "diminishing" production trend. Structural reduction and competitive reduction will still exist, but the cotton planting area in the mainland has also been "bottom".

(two) the quantity of cotton resources is huge.

China's cotton has evolved from "temporary purchase and storage" and "target price" to "foreign goods entering the market and storing domestic goods" into "three volume increase".

At present, all parties believe that the total inventory of raw cotton stocks in the country is between 1100~1300 tons. According to the loss and financial cost, 2000 yuan / ton per year, the annual loss is about about 20000000000 Yuan, and the financial burden is heavier.

Therefore, digestion inventory will be one of the tasks in the next few years.

At present, the "three volume increase" has further evolved into a serious shortage of "high grade cotton" in China and a serious surplus of "low grade cotton" (that is, "one shortage and one surplus"). The imported cotton is still a footnote to this problem. The short quality of the board is fully exposed, which indicates that the cotton industry is in urgent need of pformation, upgrading, quality and efficiency.

Three, leading the development of cotton industry with "high quality and high quality".

Emphasizing the upgrading of quality is not only the need for upgrading and upgrading of the national economy, the pformation and upgrading of the cotton textile industry to the new high-end and the consumption of large cotton stocks, but also the need for the deep integration of "one belt and one road". In the countries along the belt, there are lower quality cotton fabrics with lower quality and lower quality and lower prices for procurement. It is necessary for the December 2015 WTO ministerial meeting to establish "the abolition of export cotton subsidies from developed countries and the preferential tariff free quota policy for the export of cotton from the least developed countries to the developed countries"; it is a long-term measure to deal with the high cost of domestic cotton.

Therefore, upgrading quality is not short-term behavior. It is based on the domestic and international market, based on supply side and demand side's long-term behavior. Quality improvement is based on long-term guarantee, and meets the rigid growth of quality and quantity demand.

To this end, the industry should establish no quality, no benefits and competitiveness, seize the quality problem, seize the terminal consumer demand, seize the core competitiveness of cotton planting industry one of the core issues (another issue is cotton planting efficiency), seize the quality can effectively guarantee that the big cotton industry will not be defeated in the competition.

In 13th Five-Year, we should change from simply seeking to increase yield per unit area to comprehensively improving genetic quality, production quality, cotton ginning quality, quality inspection and economic efficiency, and meet the new demand of textile changing from low to medium to high end.

Four, the situation and reality of raw cotton quality

Quality is the short board of China's cotton industry.

The quality of raw cotton in China is at the middle level of the world.

The quality of raw cotton refers to the quality of commercial cotton entering the factory for cotton spinning. It is not a single quality compared with a single variety. It is a comprehensive comprehensive comparison. It is the comprehensive quality of raw cotton genetic quality, production quality, cotton ginning quality, circulation quality and quality inspection, and the final quality of the whole industry chain (cotton planting, processing and cotton spinning).

This view and judgement have been recognized by the scientific and technological circles and recognized by the cotton textile industry.

In terms of global commodity quality, the quality of raw cotton in the United States and Australia is located in the first phalanx of the world. The quality of raw cotton in China is located in the second phalanx of the world, which is similar to that in Central Asia. The West African countries are located in the third phalanx of the world.

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(1) verification of varieties and varieties of commodities.

The uniformity of cotton quality in China is poor.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, 407 new varieties were first approved nationwide, 196 less than 11th Five-Year and 32.5% less.

In 2015, the number of first approved varieties in the country was 74, 11 less than in 2014.

Among the major provinces, Xinjiang, Hebei and Henan have 10 and 10 audits.

According to the monitoring, the number of cotton seeding varieties (lines) in China has decreased from 569 in 2010 to 344 in 2015, a decrease of 39.5%.

Affected by the reduction of sowing area, 344 cotton seeding varieties (lines) were planted in 2015, 19.4% less than that in 2014.

In recent years, the area of cotton planting in China and the United States is similar. The number of planted varieties in the United States is 120, and the number of cultivars planted in China is 2.3 to 3.8 times higher than that in the United States.

The root cause of many varieties and varieties is too many varieties of varieties. The "bottom line" of varieties of crops is broken through and so on.

(two) production quality

Under the influence of environment, variety and technology, cotton production quality is unstable, and its production quality includes early maturity and stiff rotten boll rate.

The index of early maturity refers to the percentage of total amount of seed cotton occupied before seed germination, and the average annual yield is 80%.

The requirement for early maturity index is more stringent.

Before frost, flowers usually achieve genetic varieties, which are good quality parts.

The rotten rate is the loss of yield and quality. Autumn wet year accounts for 20%, and autumn cool year decreases significantly.

Harvesting and harvesting technology have a significant impact on quality.

The indefinite inflorescence of cotton determines the cotton harvested for a period of 30 days.

The harvesting link was retreated from the original "four points and five sorting" to the "unified flower", and the "three silk" harmful impurities were mixed into the seed cotton, and the "sale on sale" link was deliberately mixed, causing the cotton textile industry to have a headache.

The machine picked cotton has high recovery efficiency and significant labor saving.

However, machine harvested cotton is not classified as "unified flower", but also easily mixed with residual film.

Compared with manual harvesting, the machine picked cotton increased the process of cleaning and removing impurities, and the quality index of the flower cleaning process decreased significantly and the quality became worse.

(three) primary processing (ginning) quality

The cotton gin process has inherent damage to the quality of raw cotton.

The sawtooth cotton gin has the characteristics of high efficiency, but also has great damage to fibers. The roller roller is low in efficiency, but it has little damage to fibers.

In November 2015, the inspection data of 100 thousand tons "bag" of Sha Ya county in southern Xinjiang were obtained, and the results were compared. The results showed that the length of cotton rolls was 29~30, 72.30%, which was 46.4 percentage points higher than that of sawtooth cotton. The damage of sawtooth embossing to the length was the smallest. In other words, sawtooth cotton ginning was generally damaged by 1.

The length uniformity index U1 and U2 accounted for 86.6%, 37.3 percentage points higher than that of sawtooth cotton, and also related to the minimum length damage.

There was little difference in micron value.

The fracture strength index S4 (24 ~ 25.9cN/tex) is 11.8 percentage points higher than that of sawtooth cotton.

Five, to achieve "quality high-end" technical countermeasures

On the basis of action consensus, action has been taken to form a general consensus, and based on action consensus, we have made concrete actions to enhance the quality of genetic quality, production quality, quality of cotton ginning, quality inspection and economic benefits, and put forward the upgrading of quality technical means and measures: breeding and planting "medium and high end quality" varieties, effectively improving the consistency of fiber in the producing area, improving the yield of medium and high end cotton, improving the mechanization level of cotton cultivation, breaking through the technology and equipment of cotton pickling, establishing cotton production protection zone, developing "high quality cotton" production, promoting superior cotton and excellent use, high quality and high price, effectively protecting cotton farmers' reasonable income, promoting the integration and development of the 123 cotton industry, and promoting the pformation, upgrading, quality and efficiency of the whole cotton industry chain. In terms of "quality"