Imported Cotton Yarn Is Expected To Weaken In The Future.

Since 2011, the price difference of cotton yarn at home and abroad has been increasing due to the influence of relevant policies, especially the quota policy.

The yarn has poured into China and has reached a new high.

Imported yarn is indeed given to China.

Enterprises have caused great pressure. Especially in the field of low and medium yarn, cotton textile such as India, Pakistan and other countries are entering uninvited territory, and domestic small and medium-sized textile enterprises are howling abroad.

Importers are also very fierce, with importers admitted that on such a small cake, there are about 300 companies crowded.

The more than 300 companies are struggling for resources.

It can be said that from 2011 to 2015, imported yarn is constantly "swallowing" the Chinese cotton yarn market, and has the trend of "dominating the whole world".

However, there are other worries on the surface. It is undeniable that although the total amount of imported yarn is still growing, but since 2014, the demand for the downstream has not been prosperous and the price is low.

Xiaobian looks at the leopard. It is expected that the imported cotton yarn will weaken in the future. The main reasons are as follows:

Price: advantage no longer

The most flourishing period of imported yarn is the biggest price difference between cotton and domestic yarn, and the price of imported yarn is more than two thousand yuan over that of domestic yarn.

Today, as of the end of January, the RMB quotations for India C21S and C32S yarn in the mainland market are 17300-17500 yuan / ton, 19200-19500 yuan / ton (individual factory 21SA yarn 17600-17800 yuan), C32S Vietnamese made C32SA yarn quoted 19500-19600 yuan / ton, and the difference between India yarn and domestic cotton yarn has dropped to 300-500 yuan / ton, which has shrunk to a historical low.

Consumption: decreasing year by year

In recent years, domestic cotton consumption has gradually declined. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, domestic cotton consumption in 2015 is expected to be around 7 million 150 thousand tons. Due to the gradual reduction of demand, imported cotton yarn is bound to be affected, especially in the field of low count yarn.

Dumping: expected increase

1100 tons of national cotton is like a sword hanging on the head of cotton and cotton traders. Everyone is worried about when the sword will fall.

Recently, discussions on dumping and storage have increased and there are various versions of speculation.

The downward trend of cotton prices is expected to increase, regardless of the degree, but will certainly impact the import yarn market.

Exchange rate: expectation of depreciation

This year, the continued depreciation of the renminbi has caused some traders to suffer heavy losses, and indirectly brought the reshuffle of traders. Many small and medium-sized traders have withdrawn from the market.

Insiders expect that the yuan will depreciate to 5-10% next year against the US dollar, which will make many downstream buyers unbearable and choose domestic yarn instead.

Production capacity: Xinjiang yarn rising, three changes in the world pattern

1, Xinjiang yarn production capacity gradually released, 20 million spindles production capacity will change the layout of China's cotton textile industry

Beginning in 2014, the cotton textile industry invested in Xinjiang has become a hot spot in the industry. With the attraction of national policies, a large number of enterprises went to invest and build factories in Xinjiang.

It is estimated that the cost of producing cotton yarn in Xinjiang will be 3000 yuan lower than that in the mainland, and the maximum cost will reach 3600 yuan per ton.

Attracted by such a huge cost advantage, Shandong Ruyi, Huafu color spinning, Tianhong textile, Jiangsu Jinsheng, Jiangsu Zhen Lun, Henan Xinye and many other cotton textile enterprises are investing in Xinjiang.

Take Xinjiang and India C32S combed cotton yarn as an example:

Xinjiang cotton yarn: we calculate according to the local price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton 13200 yuan / ton, the loss is calculated according to 1:1.1, the processing cost is calculated according to 6000 yuan / ton, the freight rate is 800 yuan / ton, and then subtract various policy subsidies (we calculate according to 3000 yuan / ton), Xinjiang cotton to the mainland market cost price 18300 yuan / ton (only theoretical cost price).

Imported cotton yarn: we calculate cotton price 68 cents / pound according to local enterprises in India. According to 1:1.1, the processing cost is calculated according to the 4000 yuan / ton (electricity consumption is cheaper), the shipping cost plus various customs duties, value-added tax and port charges. The price of C23S imported cotton yarn is 18000 yuan / ton (only theoretical cost price, the specific brand price of each brand is different, and the additional cost of each trade link is not included), plus the internal freight and so on. The imported cotton yarn has not much advantage compared with Xinjiang cotton yarn.

In addition, imported cotton yarn still has credit risk, default risk and long delivery time. In comparison, Xinjiang cotton yarn has certain advantages.

The first stage of the development of Xinjiang's textile and garment industry is to achieve 12 million spindles of cotton spinning capacity in 2015~2017 years, but in 2015 alone, the target of this stage has been over fulfilled.

According to the existing investment situation and willingness, coupled with the existing capacity in Xinjiang, the goal of completing 20 million spindles is not as difficult as expected.

At present, Xinjiang's textile mills mainly invest in the production of low - and medium - pure cotton yarn, which will directly impact the cotton yarn abroad.

2, the quality of the mainland yarn is difficult to surpass, the middle and high yarn is still the main force.

The imported yarn is more obvious than the domestic yarn, and the cost advantage is less than 40S. Therefore, the imported yarn is generally concentrated in the middle and low end yarn of 16S, 21S and 32S, which makes the import of single species too large. Once the market demand structure is adjusted, the situation of oversupply will emerge.

The price and technical standard of 50 or more medium and high count yarn are short boards.

Because of the backward management level and technical level, imported yarn is difficult to spin more than 50 yarn, so it is inferior to domestic yarn in terms of price and yarn quality.

3, import yarn advantage is still in, still occupy a considerable share.

The comparison of the following figures shows that the yarn of imported yarn is generally low, and the reason why imported yarn can quickly occupy the middle and low branch market is that the imported yarn is determined by the advantages of raw materials, labor costs and electricity charges. Therefore, imported yarn is not disappearing, and its advantages are still in existence and still occupy a large share.

Generally speaking, the price of Xinjiang cotton yarn is large, and the advantage of imported yarn will gradually weaken. The traditional textile base in the mainland still has a strong market position in high count yarn and blended yarn.

It can be predicted that the import yarn market will not expand without restriction. Under the condition of limited total plate, the profit margins will be thinner. It will become a "new normal". With the continuous release of cotton yarn production capacity in Xinjiang, the "three points of the world" pattern of China's yarn market will gradually take shape.