The Result Of A Comprehensive Increase In Leverage In The Stock Market Is Unpredictable.

The surge of stock market last year is undoubtedly related to the large use of leverage funds.

At that time, the feeling of policy was that the real economy should be leveraged and the capital market should be leveraged.

The massive entry of leveraged funds did create a big bull market, but at the same time it brought a super bubble. But as time went on, market risk rapidly accumulated, and regulators had to take measures to reduce leverage, and then there was a continuous decline in the stock market.

It is worth noting that, since the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities have not only made a severe drive out of the illegal market entry funds, but also adjusted some of their own policies, such as a substantial increase.

The margin ratio also limits the income swap business with the purpose of financing.

In general, it is a substantial drop in leverage.

Of course, at the same time, it is also found that the real economy seems to have begun a new process of leverage, especially in the real estate sector, the first suite down payment ratio, the proportion of provident fund loans is the latest progress in these areas.

Of course, there is also a farce of Northeast University Graduates "zero down payment" policy.

Of course, now it seems that the real estate is adding leverage, but from the market reaction, I am afraid there is still a different voice: such a high price can add leverage, then the stock market can also add leverage?

The latest news is that some brokerages have increased the conversion ratio of the stock market value in margin trading, which has virtually increased the leverage to the stock market.

Is this necessary? Can it bring about a comprehensive increase in leverage in the stock market?

What we need to study now is whether there is a possibility of great leverage and leverage in terms of the overall situation of the capital market. The answer is negative.

The trend of capital market depends in essence on the real economy. Under the current economic situation, the valuation of stock market is more of a downward adjustment space. At this time, the release of liquidity without principle is likely to create more and bigger bubbles.

Further, the present market mechanism is not perfect.

The atmosphere is still very strong, and the relevant departments have limited ability to control the flow of funds, so there is a certain operational risk in the great strength and leverage.

So, for the time being, capital market plus leverage is a false proposition, because it is a reality from market operation.

Even if some brokerages have adjusted some practices in margin trading, more is still a return of technical measures, which can not be regarded as an overall leverage measure.

In fact, since the stock market crash, a problem has not been studied in depth. This is how much leverage ratio the Chinese capital market is roughly suitable for, and what kind of risk control policy should be implemented under different leverage ratios.

If the problem is studied thoroughly, people will have a more consistent view of whether or not the stock market needs (and can) leverage.

In my view, now the real estate plus leverage, the Department's starting point is not necessarily how to let housing prices rise, but to solve the high inventory problem, through the needs of the market and provide more financial support for the needs of the market, to achieve the real estate soft landing.

Of course, whether there is such a need in those first tier cities, and whether the original intentions in other cities can be achieved is another problem.

And then

In short, margin trading is theoretically an inverse regulation tool. It should leverage the stock market down and reduce leverage when prices rise.

Of course, due to various reasons, this is not necessarily the case in practice.

But at this time, some brokerages have increased the conversion ratio of the relevant stock market value in margin trading. It should be said that it is a correct behavior, which is in order to make the margin trading play a proper role of reverse regulation rather than let it add fuel to the flames in the extreme market.

And this plus leverage in the capital market is not exactly the same thing.