Guo Shiliang Interpretation Of The Impact Of Pension Market Entry On A Shares

The actual size of the pension fund in the future may not be large, but with the gradual growth of institutional investors in the A share market, the A share market in the future is expected to gradually enter the real institutional age and reduce the high speculative color of the stock market, which is the real hope of the Chinese stock market in the future.

Looking back on the past years, the situation of pension investment and operation in China is not optimistic. According to statistics, about 55% of the three insurance accumulative balances of new rural social security, urban residents' insurance and urban and rural insurance belong to demand deposits. At the same time, throughout the pension fund investment operation from 2000 to the end of 2014, its average annual yield is only about 2.32%. Thus, according to this average annual yield level, it is far lower than the real inflation rate in the past.

Recently, the news about the pension market has attracted the attention of the market again. Among them, for the core issues related to pension market security, the Ministry of human resources and Social Affairs said that pension funds can only be invested with surplus funds.

In fact, according to authoritative statistics, the total income of the pension fund in 2015 was 2 trillion and 700 billion yuan, the total expenditure was 2 trillion and 300 billion yuan, while the current balance was about 300000000000 yuan. As for the accumulated balance, it reached about 3 trillion and 400 billion yuan. At the same time, according to the current situation of the whole country, there is no gap in the pension fund, and its payment capacity can reach 17 months.

According to the basic pension insurance fund issued by the previous state council Investment management The method shows that the proportion of investment in stocks, investment funds, mixed funds and stock pension products is clear, which is not higher than 30% of the net assets of the pension fund. At the same time, for the participation of stock index futures and treasury bond futures, hedging can only be used as the purpose.

In this regard, if the standard is calculated, the size of the future pension market is expected to reach hundreds of billions. However, in practice, the following aspects need to be considered carefully.

First, pension funds should not be too optimistic about the scale of investment. In fact, compared with the market situation of the new venture capital investment regulations, it can be used for reference. Among them, from the specific new regulations, the upper limit of equity assets of venture capital investment has moved up by 5%. However, in practice, venture capital has not been able to use this investment limit for a long time in terms of equity investment. On the contrary, throughout the long period of time, the proportion of venture capital in equity investment remained at about 15%.

It should be noted that investment in equity assets is actually quite broad in scope of investment. Obviously, for equity asset investment, it is more suitable to meet the long-term investment diversification and investment diversification. In this regard, as a pension fund for the livelihood of the ordinary people, it is more or less inclined to invest in government bonds or bank deposits. Therefore, the impact of the A stock market, perhaps psychological level is far more than the actual impact.

Second, the security of investment in the pension market needs more real-time supervision. Perfect wind control 。 The pension fund, which is related to the livelihood of the ordinary people, needs to be cautious in entering the market. In response, according to the relevant provisions, after the pension market is entered, investment institutions and trustees will establish a risk reserve in accordance with 20% of the management fee and 1% of the annual investment income, so as to cope with the risk of loss that the pension fund may invest. At the same time, as mentioned above, when the pension fund enters the market, the share of the actual investment stocks is quite low, and its investment will tend to be diversified and dispersed, thereby achieving the purpose of reducing investment risk. In addition, in the process of future pension market entry, how to protect the safety of pension fund investment and how to make its investment and operation go to the sunshine is an unavoidable problem.

Thirdly, behind the pension market entry, we need to understand the real meaning behind it. In fact, the main purpose of pension market entry is to enhance the long-term investment of pension funds. Operate Low efficiency, and improve the overall investment and operation level by means of entering the market, so that the gap pressure of pension funds will continue to decrease. However, as a pension fund, it is basically a long-term investment fund. Although the scale of its future market may not be too large, the purpose of its entry is not to rescue the market or to support the market. However, when it enters the market, it actually uploads the signal that the national organization recognised the current market value of investment. At the same time, to a certain extent, it is also conducive to improving the overall proportion of institutional investors in China, and improving the investor structure of the A share market. Its long-term significance is very far-reaching.

The author believes that in the face of the current A share market's huge market value, the actual scale of the pension market in the future may not be large, but the psychological impact on the A share market is far greater than its actual impact. Perhaps, with the gradual growth of institutional investors in the A share market, the future A share market is expected to gradually enter the real institutional era. This will be conducive to the long-term healthy development of the stock market and reduce the high speculative color of the stock market, which is the real hope of the Chinese stock market in the future.