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    RMB Does Not Have Sustained Depreciation, While The Underlying Market Is Still Stable.

    2016/3/5 14:47:00 8

    RMBDepreciationExchange Rate

    After a period of time, the RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to decline, then gradually stabilized.

    During the two sessions this year, the issue of exchange rate volatility has become a hot topic of media attention.

    Pan Gongsheng, director of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and director of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said in an interview yesterday that the RMB exchange rate trend is stable and that the RMB does not have the basis of sustained depreciation.

    Pan Gongsheng believes that China's economy continues to grow.

    Balance of payments

    The large surplus, especially the surplus under the current account, constitutes the basis for the relative strength of the renminbi.

    At the same time, China's foreign exchange reserves are still large.

    Therefore, the RMB does not have the basis of sustained depreciation.

    When the exchange rate fluctuated sharply, offshore renminbi in Hongkong

    exchange rate

    The difference between Shanghai and the on shore RMB exchange rate has made arbitrage speculators for arbitrage speculators. Some market participants believe that the offshore market is small and easy to be used by speculators.

    In this regard, Pan Gongsheng said that the current

    RMB

    The offshore market is not only one in Hongkong, but the size of the Hongkong market is bigger. London and Singapore also have a certain scale.

    The development of offshore market mainly depends on market power.

    Pan Gongsheng believes that China's firm implementation of the strategy of opening to the outside world is also a deep integration into the global economy. Foreign exchange control is neither necessary nor effective.

    Pan Gongsheng also said that the relevant departments are studying the QDII2 pilot scheme.

    For the recent mortgage policy, Pan Gongsheng explained that the total number of real estate market in the country is surplus, but the regional differentiation is obvious.

    The real estate market management includes land, tax and other related policies as well as real estate credit policies.

    Pan Gongsheng said that at the beginning of this year, the central bank made adjustments to the down payment ratio of the real estate market. This adjustment has several characteristics: first, the original credit policy of the North going deep and wide is still implemented, and no adjustment policy has been implemented; two, because of the implementation of the strategy of the city, the real estate credit policy has given the financial institutions greater autonomy in deciding the down payment proportion and loan interest rate level because of the local policy, and the three is that the central bank will adopt macro Prudential management measures.

    Related links:

    As commodity prices rise to attract investors, and the market expects China to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate, emerging market currencies and stocks are expected to record their biggest weekly gains since last October.

    The won won the biggest weekly gain in nearly four months, and the country's capital inflow has reached a new high in recent years. The Indonesian rupiah has been on the 12 straight day and has risen to a nine month high.

    Taiwan's central bank intervened unexpectedly on Thursday morning before the market closed to curb possible gains in exports.

    After India's finance minister Arun Jaitley promised to keep the deficit deficit below 3.5% in the next fiscal year, India's benchmark stock index is expected to show its biggest weekly gain in four years.

    This week, the US economic data improved and China's drop in rate eased the worries of investors on global economic growth. Overseas funds invested more than $2 billion 500 million in the stock markets of Korea, Taiwan, India and Thailand.

    Meanwhile, a Bloomberg index measuring commodity prices rose to a five week high.

    Investors will pay close attention to the US non farm employment data released on Friday to find clues about the health of the US economy and the pace of the Fed's rate hike.

    "Capital flows into emerging markets in Asia have surged this week," said Zhang Jiantai, Asia's foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho bank.

    "The rebound in commodity prices has a certain impact on this," said Malaysia linggit, who would benefit from it, he said.


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