Interpretation Of The Stock Market: The Bottom Area Is Coming Again

The stock market crash has lasted for 9 months since June 2015.

From the past characteristics of the bear and the bull in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it seems that the time period for talking about the bottom has not yet arrived.

But judging from the major causes of the stock market crash and the current changes in several major reasons, it is reasonable to conclude this conclusion.

First, the trigger for the stock market crash started from last year's stock market leverage.

At that time, there were about 1 trillion and 500 billion of the compliance financing in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and about 2 trillion and 500 billion of non - Compliance financing was on the sidelines.

The stock market financing ratio, that is, the ratio of financing to market capitalization, exceeds the internationally recognized 3 - 5% reasonable interval, reaching 6 - 7% risk interval.

Stock market volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen Daily exceeds 2 trillion, close to the sum of the world.

When the CSRC began to clean up off-site non compliant financing, a stock market crash was inevitable.

So far, off-site financing has basically been cleared, and the compliance financing in the field is about 800 billion yuan, accounting for about 2% of the total market capitalization of the stock market.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen daily average volume reached 1/10 of the peak, indicating that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets lowered their financing leverage and reduced the volume of trading bubbles.

Second, when the stock market crashed and broke out, people's fear and resistance to registration system were greater. Registration system became an important factor that the stock price could not stop diarrhea.

Today, the government work report does not mention the implementation of registration system this year, the registration system has dropped to the shelving status of research and demonstration.

This is an important factor at the bottom.

Third,

When the crash broke out, it also encountered two devaluation of the RMB exchange rate in August 2015 and January 2016.

Although the depreciation rate of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is relatively small, it is a new phenomenon after the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in 2005.

The market's panic over the economic downturn and the lack of confidence in the stability of the stock market.

After the Spring Festival, the renminbi is traded against the US dollar.

Tend to be stable.

In February, the monthly decrease in foreign exchange reserves was only US $28 billion 600 million.

The RMB International Offshore price is stable, and the short term short term contract has been greatly reduced.

Although exports fell sharply in February due to factors such as season, the balance of international payments remained unchanged. China did not exist to drive the balance of payments by devaluing the renminbi.

As a result, the RMB exchange rate is stable.

Stable premise premise factors.

Fourth, in the course of the rescue, the SFC has made mistakes and questioned people's management level, such as the introduction of futile system.

Today, the fuse system is suspended, and the new chairman of the SFC takes office.

All this brings new hope to the market.

Fifth, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5187 to 2683, and the gem index fell by more than half.

For the stocks, most of the small and medium stocks fell by 6 to 7, and most of the large cap stocks fell by about 4. Such a decline occurred in the absence of a political and economic crisis.

Because of this, the state attaches great importance to the stability of the stock market, because the further deterioration of the stock market will lead to a political and economic systemic crisis.

In short, the main factors that cause the stock market decline are vanishing or easing. This is the basic pattern of the coming of the bottom area.