Zhou Xiaochuan Asked Reporters About The "Year-On-Year Decline In Exports."

Foreign trade data released just now showed that the export volume of China's foreign trade decreased by 13.1% compared with the first two months of this year. The external environment of this year's foreign trade is very severe.

I would like to ask Zhou president if the RMB exchange rate goes further down in this foreign trade situation, the competitiveness of Chinese products will further improve in the international market. Is this a pressure on the devaluation of the RMB? What does Zhou president think of the trend of the RMB exchange rate this year? In his report on the work of the government, the prime minister put forward that the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate. How does President Zhou interpret the four words "flexible and moderate"?

[Zhou Xiaochuan]:

Your question reminds me that the first question mentioned in the international and domestic events and financial market turmoil is not a big drop in the prices of bulk products such as oil. In fact, this is also an important event.

When it comes to foreign trade, we must consider this factor. The growth rate of import and export is decreasing or even negative. We should not use the data of individual months to analyze the data with a little longer.

The impact of global commodity decline must be taken into account in the analysis.

It is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the decline in imports; the decline in imports may be more intense than exports; the decline in imports is due to the fact that you have bought less.

A few days ago when we opened the G20 in Shanghai, I later opened the international clearing bank association. I also repeatedly said that China's imports of bulk commodities, the number of crude oil imports, how many tons of imports were physically imported, or the number of tens of thousands of barrels increased, up eight percent points last year.

Grain has grown significantly, copper and gold are also growing, and soybeans are also growing.

The decline is mainly coal, and aluminum may also decline.

The volume of imports has increased, but it has saved money, because commodities have dropped sharply and saved money, so imports have dropped a lot according to the amount.

The decline of exports is not a good thing to look at, but it is also necessary to analyze more deeply. Many of China's exports are called processing exports. In the past, they were imported raw materials, namely primary products, including energy, imported parts and processed products.

If the price of primary raw materials is down, and the export price of processed products is not in our hands, the sellers will say that the raw materials have been reduced and the products have been reduced.

Therefore, the value of exports will decrease as measured by foreign exchange.

The added value does not necessarily drop, because the raw materials are cheaper, and the final export commodity prices also drop.

If the added value does not drop, the damage to export enterprises is not too great.

Their contribution to GDP does not necessarily drop too much.

[11:18]

[Zhou Xiaochuan]:

From this point of view, we should also pay attention to the net export. What is the trade balance of our country last year? Our country's trade surplus amounted to nearly 600 billion US dollars last year. This is the customs statistics, and the balance of payments statistics is about about 570000000000 US dollars.

One more question is whether China's exports are not in the international market, the whole price has dropped, and the volume of trade has declined.

After careful observation, I am not sure about the figures. The share of China's exports in the world has increased slightly.

In this analysis, if we are influenced by price factors, we are not necessarily too anxious. We need not use the exchange rate to adjust our competitiveness.

I remember Prime Minister Keqiang also repeatedly said that we believe China's export products, especially manufacturing exports, are very competitive, although there are also problems of cost increase, there are also comparisons.

Gradually changing problems, but generally speaking, they are very competitive.

Therefore, it is not necessarily urgent to take measures to stimulate exports.

At the same time, two aspects of imports and exports must be balanced, because imports are falling more. So consider the policy. If exports are to be concerned, they must be considered right.

What is the impact?

[11:22]

[Zhou Xiaochuan]:

from

All of us are concerned about this issue. We still have a prudent monetary policy, but we should pay attention to the flexibility of monetary policy and maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity.

There are quantitative definitions and language definitions. Language is the concept of fuzzy mathematics. In terms of vague expression, monetary policy is divided into five sections, one is loose monetary policy, the other is moderately loose monetary policy, the other is moderate monetary policy, the other is tight monetary policy and tight monetary policy.

Traditionally, we can express it in five paragraphs. In history, for example, when inflation is stronger, tighter monetary policy will be adopted.

The expression of a few words in each language is an interval with a certain range. Now, more emphasis is placed on the pressure of downward pressure on the economy. There are many difficulties and challenges. Therefore, in the prudent monetary policy, the official document of the State Council emphasizes flexibility and moderation. At a press conference in Shanghai, I also said that the prudent monetary policy is somewhat loose. In light of the current statement, it is also consistent with the actual situation from the latter half of 2015 to the present.