Cotton Farmers, Cotton Spinning Enterprises And Other Market Players How To View Cotton 18600 Yuan / Ton?

Recently, the national development and Reform Commission announced

The level is 18600 yuan per ton.

To look back

Cotton target price reform pilot work, 2014 is the first year of the pilot launch, Xinjiang cotton target price level is 19800 yuan per ton, the release time is April 5, 2014; 2015 Xinjiang.

The target price level was 19100 yuan per ton, down 700 yuan / ton, the time of issue was April 7, 2015, and the target price level of cotton in Xinjiang continued to decrease by 500 yuan / ton in 2016, the decrease was narrower than that in 2015, and the time of publication was greatly advanced, which is conducive to the rational arrangement of cotton farmers' spring sowing.

Xinjiang cotton growers

Bayinguoleng cotton farmers: 18600 yuan / ton lower than psychological expectations, 19000 yuan / ton is the bottom line.

In 2014, the target price was severely damaged in the first year. In 2015, it was hard to earn some money. I wonder if I need to grow cotton this year.

Tacheng cotton farmers: the standard reduction is expected. This year the team plans to grow winter wheat, melon, corn and sunflower in 3600 acres, and the area of cotton should be 2600 mu.

With two years of experience, the villagers have selected varieties of cotton with high yield and quality this year.

Cotton growers in the mainland

The Xinjiang policy is enviable. This year, the cotton prices in the mainland have been slow to release. Some provinces have not announced the subsidy standards so far. They are watching the spring sowing. They hope that the subsidy will be released to the hands in 2015, and the Cotton Subsidy in the mainland can be announced at an early date in 2016.

Not only cotton farmers pay attention to the target price, but also the cotton spinning enterprises attach great importance to them. What do they think of 18600 yuan / ton?

Viewpoint one: the state still wants to maintain the stability of Xinjiang's cotton production, encourage farmers to grow cotton with huge subsidies, and the bottom of the cotton market is around ten thousand, so the symbolic value of the target price falling by 500 yuan is greater than the actual significance.

In addition, compared with last year, the target price was reduced by 500 yuan, but compared to the market price, the target price in 2015 was 19100 yuan when the market price was 13000-14000 yuan. When the price was announced at 18600 yuan this year, the market price was around 11000. Was the subsidy weakened or increased?

View two: now the domestic and foreign cotton market is highly concerned about.

The target price can not be released at this time, and can not cause a wave of market as last year. After all, the price of the futures price on the reserve cotton wheel is basically in place.

In the new year, the cotton price increase is limited, because the supply is very sufficient. It is worth noticing how the supply is pformed into effective supply. The effective supply at present is high quality cotton.

Judging from the results of two years of cotton target price, cotton farmers and cotton enterprises have the sense of quality as king. Especially cotton farmers' ideas can be changed from pursuit of production and lint to quality.

Last year, the target price was 19100 yuan per ton, which looked like a ton reduced by 700 yuan, but it is better than the last year's cotton farmers' income.

So what will be the impact of 500 yuan this year on cotton farmers' income? The foothold is still on the price of cotton reserves.

Point three: target prices have dropped this year, at least I do not want to take up takeover activities at last year's purchase price.

Viewpoint four: the price of 18600 yuan / ton will not greatly reduce the cotton planting area in Xinjiang.

Point five: subsidized cotton is less and seed cotton prices will not be high, which restricts the income of cotton producers in Xinjiang.

In 2014, the subsidy of local cotton in Xinjiang was calculated according to the "60% area +40% production" method. The area was 3 times per mu, which was 193 yuan / mu, 43 yuan / mu, 33 yuan / mu respectively, and the output subsidy was 0.66 yuan / kg.

In 2015, the Xinjiang local subsidy standard was subsidized 1.99 yuan / kg for the sale of upland cotton, 2.58 yuan / kg for special cotton sales, and 141.75 yuan / mu for the four basic Prefecture households in southern Xinjiang.

According to the subsidy standard, in 2015, the total subsidy target price of cotton per mu in the autonomous region was about 500 yuan, and the amount of basic cotton subsidies per mu in the four prefectures of Southern Xinjiang will reach about 540 yuan.