The Two Cities Have Been Enlarged, And The Stock Market Has Become A Hot Topic.

On the last day of March, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets ended in a concussion.

Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.27 points, second days in a row over 3000 points, the deep market three index rose and fell, two cities have been enlarged.

After a sharp increase on Wednesday, Thursday (March 31st) adjustment was normal, and this adjustment was relatively strong, indicating that there was still upward momentum in the market.

In such a concussion market, short term investors can rush ahead and adjust to buy.

Investors who are too lazy to frequent pactions can safely hold shares and wait for the rotation of the sector.

Under such a market, we should avoid catching up and killing.

There are three pieces of news worthy of comment today, one is "potential big bad", one is "hard to wait for good", one is "temporarily negative".

Today, two new cases of privatization of "offshore listed companies" have attracted wide public attention. One is Wanda Commercial real estate listed in Hongkong, and the other is Qihoo 360 listed in the US.

Wanda Commercial real estate is Wang Jianlin's Core Company, which only went public in Hongkong 15 months ago.

The stock market has been in a doldrums due to the impact of Hongkong's political situation and the US dollar interest rate hike.

According to the data released by Ming Sheng, the valuation of Hongkong stock market is very low, second only to Russia and Egypt, ranking third in emerging economies.

In the Hongkong stock market, the valuation of internal and foreign banking stocks has been very low.

When Wanda reached IPO in Hongkong in December 2014, the issue price was HK $48.

After listing, Wanda's share price is HK $78, the lowest is HK $31.1.

The average closing price in the latest month is around 35 Hong Kong dollars, far below the issue price.

If so

And the market rate is even more embarrassing: the P / E ratio is only 5 times more than the market price ratio and 0.83 times the net market rate.

That is to say, Wanda Commercial Real Estate sold a Chinese cabbage price in Hongkong stock market, but still few people are willing to buy it.

In fact, this is the real situation of bear market under registration system.

Li Jiacheng's company also encountered the same problem, for example, his real estate, after the restructuring of the listing, the largest market value of the decrease of 150 billion Hong Kong dollars.

However, Li Jiacheng did not plan to withdraw from the market. His way of seeking benefits for shareholders was to buy back some of the shares.

Wanda has a better way: to return to A shares.

If A is re listed, how can Wanda mix 10 to 12 times price earnings ratio? By then, the market value can be doubled.

Qihoo 360 also has the same abacus. According to the latest stock price after the announcement of privatization news, the P / E ratio is 36 times.

If we return to A shares, at least 70 times price earnings ratio, the market value can also be doubled.

On the surface, Wanda and Qihoo return to A shares, the most likely way to choose is backdoor listing, the advantages are the following:

1, for the company, it is possible to achieve rapid listing without having to wait for flowers. 2, without IPO, only private placement and asset acquisition can alleviate the pressure of the two level market; 3, the backdoor listing of stocks one after another can stimulate the rise of the stock market and help the market atmosphere to warm up; 4, in the long run, leading enterprises will return in succession, which is conducive to the growth of the domestic capital market and the establishment of the financial center. 5, it is conducive to the rapid growth of the leading industry in the retail sector.

However, we need to see that the return of overseas listed companies constitutes a relatively substantial real interest in the current "closed door bubble" A shares, and the market will happily die in the theme of speculation and backdoor listing.

After all, because of the rapid expansion of the market, a group of enterprises with hundreds of billions of valuations and hundreds of billions of RMB yuan have entered A shares and diverted funds.

In deep Shanghai

From 2016 to 2017, the scarce market expansion bonus should be given to high quality small and medium enterprises, so that they can get funds and hatch new 360.

Instead of letting the 360 and Wanda, which are not short of money, come back to occupy the development opportunities of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In addition, in the process of returning overseas listed companies, capital will inevitably be pferred overseas.

This is also a matter of concern in the context of China's declining foreign exchange reserves.

Therefore, although the return of overseas listed companies is a long-term good for China's capital market, it is a major short-term negative.

In a sense, they are coming back to cut leeks. The management should be sober about the dual nature of this "relapsing fever".

Following Moodie, S & P announced the downgrading of China's AA- rating outlook, from stability to negative.

S & P also downgraded Hongkong's AAA rating outlook from stable to negative.

S & P said China's economic rebalancing may be slower than expected.

The leverage ratio of Chinese government and enterprises is expected to deteriorate.

China's economic growth is expected to be 6% or higher in the next three years.

This is certainly not a good news. Although the people's daily and Xinhua society refute the S & P, the impact of S & P and Moodie on the international market is even greater.

Who let our Rating firm fail to win the battle?

But this news can not affect A shares temporarily.

The Ming Sheng index once again flirted with A shares. Last year, a flirt was made. When investors were adding leverage to the Spring Festival, the Americans said "Sao Rui".

In the morning of March 31st Beijing, MSCI announced that it will decide whether its emerging market index will be partially incorporated into China's A shares in June.

From the media coverage, Ming Sheng company is concerned about several issues: 1, whether the market liquidity of A shares can be maintained, in other words, will there be a thousand shares of suspension of risk aversion when the stock market crash occurs? 2, let's not allow hedging tools, that is, let's not make a reasonable short sale; and 3, whether the market openness is expanding.

When A shares return to the "closed door to play bubble" era, can these conditions be satisfied? I feel very bad.

Of course, if A shares were incorporated into the emerging market index by Ming Sheng, it would be a medium scale positive.

Although the amount of money affected is negligible, the positive psychological impact is quite significant.

According to UBS analysis, in June 2015, tracking MSCI index reached $9 trillion and 600 billion (tracking emerging market index for 16%).

If A shares are included (assuming that the 5% weights are included), the direct impact is passive funds (1/6), that is, 15 billion yuan or directly into A shares.

But more importantly, MSCI demonstration benefits, active allocation of funds will probably buy A shares, so that the estimated maximum will be about 90 billion yuan to configure A shares.