Analysis Of Cotton Market Changes In Recent Two Weeks

First, look at the latest forecast data.

April USDA monthly supply and demand report shows that the world

Output dropped slightly from 91 thousand tons to 21 million 729 thousand tons, of which India output was 5 million 835 thousand tons, still the world's first cotton producing country; global consumption increased by 82 thousand tons to 23 million 860 thousand tons, of which China's consumption rose by 109 thousand tons; the end of the world inventory reduced 245 thousand tons to 22 million 255 thousand tons.

In addition, China's output and imports remained on the forecast of last month, consumption increased by 109 thousand tons, and terminal stocks reduced by 109 thousand tons. The reduction in final inventory was all due to the increase in consumption. China's output in the new year was 5 million 182 thousand tons, 7 million 76 thousand tons in consumption, 1 million 894 thousand tons in production and sales, and 805 thousand tons in the 1 million 89 thousand tons of imports.

Pakistan's consumption has increased by 109 thousand tons, resulting in an increase of 131 thousand tons of imports. The rest of the world's indicators have not changed significantly. The global supply of cotton is still loose in the new year, but it has begun to stock up.

Next, we will focus on the market changes of cotton in the past two weeks.

First, before the cotton market starts,

Raw materials inventory has been relatively low, stock for about 1-2 weeks, futures first launched under the help of funds, resulting in the spot become relatively sought after, the proportion of upstream orders to increase the proportion of defaults, have been increasing sales, resulting in traders selling profits improved, most traders reflect the current "bottom line, do not bargain", and gradually a bit of the seller's market taste, this situation is still a few years ago Daniel market will occur.

Second, driven by the rise in futures, the spot price of cotton rose by about 100~300 yuan / ton this week. With the rise of the day before yesterday, several companies raised the price of 200 yuan / ton, and the Xinjiang cotton Corps increased the price of cotton by 500 yuan / ton, but the downstream gauze was not obvious, the price remained unchanged and the inventory was relatively high.

Third, the recent textile enterprises processing profit has also changed, from the previous loss to profit of about 300, and recently changed back to losses, mainly the upstream lint price increase, resulting in increased cost, but the downstream yarn price or the cost of pmission failed.

At present, yarn is greatly influenced by imported yarn, and the price pmission is more difficult. With the rise of domestic spot price and the import or revival of yarn, it will impact domestic market.

Fourth, the day before yesterday, the NDRC called the relevant departments to study the problem of the abnormal rise of cotton futures prices in the near future. The meeting clearly stated that the amount of reserve cotton will be guaranteed in 2015/16.

Demand, in the case of market demand, can increase the amount of input on the basis of the original 2 million tons. In addition, it also involves quota discussions. The policy of not issuing additional tax quotas is likely to be adjusted according to the supply and demand situation of the market. The market will be over-the-counter funds, which can misread the news of the NDRC.

Fifth, it is understood that the selling price of reserve cotton is weekly pricing based on the weighted price of the index of internal and external price, adjusted on Monday. At present, with the rising price, domestic and foreign index weighted price increase has surpassed spot gains, while the reserve cotton has 600-1400 yuan / ton discount, but the price relative competitive advantage is weakened, and the attractiveness of the docking cargo side decreases.

In short, with the rise of cotton futures prices in the near future, the price of spot lint has increased by 200-600 yuan per ton. Because of the unsmooth conduction of yarn costs in the downstream, no increase has been seen, and the consumption season is coming.