Export Data Rebounded Sharply In March

"Orders increased in March and April, but there is not much difference compared with the same period last year."

Many Canton Fair exhibitors told reporters.

After 9 months of foreign trade downturn, export figures rebounded sharply in March. But is this a temporary rebound or a fundamental trend?

For our country

The prospect of development is cautiously optimistic and hopes to improve the competitiveness of enterprises through pformation and innovation.

Industry experts said that the trade mode of low cost, low price and low-end participation in international division of labor has ended in the past 35 years.

Under the new normal, we must rely on international competitiveness, talent, marketing,

Quality and efficiency will take part in international division of labor.

But experts believe that pformation can not focus on high-end.

China's biggest strength is that we have enough diversified production capacity, and enterprises should aim at different market forces according to their own advantages.

Export rebounded in March

In April 13th, customs data showed that after 9 months of negative growth, the total value of exports in March was 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan, up 18.7% over the same period last year, and the total value of imports was 855 billion 500 million yuan, down 1.7% from the same period last year. The decline was narrower than that of last month, far better than market expectations.

Many views argue that the rebound in export figures in March means that China's foreign trade situation is beginning to pick up and that these signs will be reflected in the spring fair.

However, if the factors of Spring Festival holiday are excluded, the data may not be so optimistic.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, after the seasonally adjusted export growth in March was only 0.9%. Excluding the exchange rate and other factors, the export data in March may still be negative growth.

Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular meeting of Commerce Department on 12, that export rebounded sharply in March, one is seasonal factor, the other is cardinal factor.

Seasonal factors mean that because of the Spring Festival in February, exports are either moving forward or pushing back.

The base factor is that the monthly export volume in March last year is the lowest in all months of the year. Therefore, the export volume increased by 18.7% in March this year, but the export scale is only about 1 trillion yuan, and the figure is not ideal.

Shen Danyang stressed, "further investigation and analysis, the whole year's foreign trade situation is still complex and grim and not optimistic."

Zhuang Rui, vice president of the school of international economics of the University of foreign trade and economics, told reporters: "the monthly data will be affected by certain factors, such as cycle changes and the base number before. Therefore, we can not take the monthly data for annual data. The export data in March can be a good sign, but we can not fundamentally say that the trend of foreign trade is better."

Reporters interviewed a number of Canton Fair exhibitors said that the volume of orders in March and April has picked up, but compared to the same period last year only to maintain stability, there is no significant growth.

It seems that the signs of a rebound in foreign trade can not be proved by enterprises.

When visiting the enterprises at the Guangzhou Fair, the Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiations and vice minister asked many times about the difficulties in the operation of the enterprises and whether they had confidence in the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year. Zijin Mountain pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the foreign trade situation has become more and more complex and severe, and the uncertainties and uncertainties have increased, and the downward pressure on the foreign trade is still very large. ""

The government's attention may be the profile of the foreign trade situation which is still not optimistic.

"The government is stronger than ever before in helping enterprises."

Huo Rongquan, vice chairman of Monalisa group Limited by Share Ltd, said in an interview with reporters.

Internal and external troubles

The scope of China's exports extends widely, including developed economies such as Europe and the United States, and emerging economies.

There is a view that the US economic recovery will benefit our exports, but industry experts believe that global demand is still in the doldrums, influenced by factors such as the rise of global protectionism and exclusionary regionalization, together with the political and war factors of some emerging economies.

At the same time, the rising labor costs and increasingly fierce competition in the industry also bring multiple burdens to enterprises.

China's foreign trade recovery is difficult under the "internal and external troubles".

"Labor costs account for more than 20% of our profits, and we can't afford to use them."

A person in charge of a household electrical appliance enterprise in Ningbo told reporters that "wages are rising year after year. Pension, medical care and other insurance must be bought for workers. This part of the burden is heavy."

There are not many minority entrepreneurs who share the same view. More than half of the nearly thirty enterprises interviewed by the Canton Fair have expressed the pressure of rising labor costs.

Moreover, most enterprises are faced with the problem of recruiting difficulties more or less.

Zhuang Rui said that China's foreign trade is undergoing a pformation period of optimization and upgrading. The old advantages such as demographic dividend are losing, and new advantages have not yet been cultivated. At this time, enterprises are rather sad.

Zhang Yansheng, the Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission's academic committee, said in an interview: "the Chinese economy is moving towards a new normal.

Over the past 35 years, the share of processing trade has decreased from 55% in 2005 to 35% last year, and the next step will continue to decline.

In ten years, 20 points were dropped, and structural changes were obvious.

That is to say, the golden age of China's participation in international division of labor with low cost elements is over.

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In the process of China's foreign trade pformation, the influence of external environment can not be ignored.

Shen Danyang said that the export situation of the world's 32 main economies in the first two months showed that there had been varying degrees of decline from the published foreign trade data.

For example, the United States dropped 7.4%, Germany dropped 3.1%, Japan fell 7.1%, Korea dropped 15.7%, Taiwan dropped 12.4%, Canada dropped 9.8%, Brazil dropped 4.7%, India dropped 9.8%.

Whether developed or emerging economies, both the Asia Pacific region and Europe and the United States, foreign trade data are going down.

Zhang Yansheng believes that the poor global demand will still affect the foreign trade situation.

The economies of Europe and Japan are not good. The recovery of the US economy is not very strong, though the recovery has been made.

If global demand is not good, it means that foreign trade is very difficult if it wants to be very good.

"To tell you the truth, the international market is also not good. Before our customers in Russia, Iran and other countries, we have worked with us for more than a decade or 20 years. They are not giving money but really under great pressure, including customers in Yemen and Nigeria. The deterioration of the local situation has great impact on us."

A staff member of a building material production enterprise in Shandong told our reporter.

A battery manufacturer in Ningbo also expressed similar feelings to reporters: "what we can do is done, and the political and economic situation of the country where the client is located is not good, and I have nothing to do with it."

"Now that the global trade protectionism is on the rise, the countries all over the world are doing exclusive regionalization. The global opening up situation is actually very complicated with the actual situation, and there is the ebb tide of globalization.

There is also a continuing downturn in commodity prices, which is a major blow to global resources and energy exporters.

Zhang Yansheng said, "global demand is not good, foreign trade situation is not optimistic is normal.

If it is optimistic, it must be at the expense of overdraft.

In the second half of this year and the whole year next year, the bad days may be medium and long term, so enterprises must pform.

Difficult pformation

"It is so easy for the government to talk about pformation and encourage technological innovation.

If technology is to keep up with the level of developed countries, I think it will take at least thirty years.

The head of a machinery manufacturer told the reporter.

It is understood that the enterprise is still the industry leader, has certain technical advantages.

The person in charge said: "some of the production process can not be refined, machine assembly mainly rely on manual completion, a gear is not up to the top.

Labor costs can not be reduced, technological upgrading and R & D capability can not be improved in a short time.

Now we need to pform and innovate. There are too many difficulties. "

Zhang Yansheng said foreign trade enterprises are now very difficult.

In the past 35 years, the trade way of relying on low cost, low price and low participation in international division of labor has come to an end. Now we are participating in the international division of labor by means of international competitiveness, talent, marketing, brand, quality and efficiency. The pformation of enterprises is facing five shortages.

"Lack of technology, lack of brand, lack of talent, lack of funds, lack of pformation experience and ability.

In the next thirty years, we need to solve the problem of "five deficiency".

Despite the difficulties of pformation, reporters learned at the Canton Fair that some enterprises are catching up with the high-end market share through pformation, and are changing to high-end manufacturing with design and research capabilities.

"Before last year, our share of high-end market and low-end market share was 3:7, and now the reverse market share of high-end market share is 70%."

Huo Rongquan told reporters.

A EAST Group official also told reporters: "our order volume increased by 20% last year.

Now the market is changing rapidly, and the competition of enterprises depends mainly on technological innovation and high-end market. "

Unlike previous years, reporters found that more and more enterprises have increased investment in innovation and R & D in recent two years.

"Our annual investment in innovation is at least 12 million yuan."

A small and medium-sized ceramic tile manufacturer told reporters.

When it comes to the problem of the growth of export volume in the high-end market, many experts have indicated that the high-end market is flexible, and the demand is relatively stable, so it is not easy to be replaced. However, the competitiveness of our products in developed countries is still weak.

"Foreign trade pformation is to cultivate new advantages, improve quality is certain, but do not focus on high-end market, some enterprises do not have the advantage of technology, emphasize high-end is not necessarily suitable."

Zhuang Rui believes that China's greatest strength lies in its ability to diversify its production capacity. Foreign trade exports must look at the difficulties of pformation in the longer term.

"China's expansion of emerging markets is a good path.

Because in the process of our successful pformation, we must not lose our traditional advantages.

It is reasonable to expand the emerging market and find a way out for our products. "

At the same time, Chuang Rui emphasized that even low-end products have to achieve certain quality standards. This is a question of international image and international reputation.

It is necessary to brand and improve quality.

In an interview, reporters learned that many visiting enterprises in home appliances, building materials, photovoltaic and other industries have already increased investment in emerging markets.

Despite the pressure of rising labor costs and low external demand, some enterprises have successfully pformed from subcontracting to independent brands, developing independent brands in different markets, and increasing technological research and development.

However, small and medium-sized enterprises which rely heavily on the OEM mode, lack of innovation and R & D capability have yet to find a way out.