The Prediction Of China'S Economic Crisis Is Not Allowed.

Good China's economic data for the first quarter have led some analysts to believe that China's economic outlook is promising. But George Soros, a prominent investor, still sees the prospect of China's economy.

At the Davos world economic forum in January of this year, Soros once said he was shorting Asian currencies because the "hard landing" of China's economy was inevitable.

Now the financial predator said that China's current situation is very similar to that of the United States before the subprime crisis in 2007-2008 years.

The rating agencies, S & P and Moodie, downgraded China's sovereign credit rating in March, from stability to negative, but questioned Chinese officials.

Legendary investor

Although the view is very significant, is China really approaching the so-called financial crisis?

Another point of view is that this means that traditional analysis or prediction is not in line with China's actual conditions.

Those who hold this view argue that a hard landing, a financial or monetary crisis will not happen in China.

But similar to "this is different from the past" point of view in the US technology bubble in 2001 and the real estate bubble burst in 2008 were also mentioned.

There are already signs that China is about to face.

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The first is interbank liquidity, which is a major loophole during the global financial crisis in 2008.

On the surface, the interbank liquidity of China's banks is relatively good, but this is largely due to the intervention of the Central Bank of China.

In the past week, the central bank has injected 870 billion yuan (US $133 billion 800 million) into the market to ease cash pressure.

Some analysts believe that China is facing the problem of a significant depreciation of the RMB. No matter whether it is a financial crisis or a hard landing in the future, the capital outflow will cause the depreciation of the RMB.

Last week, investment banking analyst at Lyons securities reported that the second half of 2017

Floating freely will lead to short-term capital outflow, thus reducing the RMB against the US dollar to 9.

The report points out that the outflow of capital is expected to prompt the Chinese government to back off and let the market decide the RMB exchange rate.

The report says that things that can't last forever will come to an end, and a rapid fall in the yuan will restore financial liquidity to balance: China needs to fix financial accounts instead of current accounts.

Stephen finally wrote, "for Soros's warning, China should be one thing."

China's economy is huge, but it may also mean that it will face a bigger and more complex financial crisis. "

Another indicator that can be relied on is the pressure on China's bond market.

More and more views in the market recently suggest that the Chinese corporate bond market seems to be the new weakest link.

According to the domestic issuance records, the liquidity of Chinese companies may be nearly exhausted, because more than 40 companies have cancelled the enterprise debt plan since March.

However, China's currency market is the best indication of China's financial crisis.

With the shrinking of China's foreign exchange reserves, its fixed exchange rate has been strictly examined.

China's foreign exchange reserve has decreased by 800 billion US dollars since the middle of 2014.

At the same time, China began to tend to more market-oriented exchange rate and two small currency devaluation.

Once in August last year, it was at the beginning of this year, and the results were not very good.

The two devaluation of the renminbi triggered a sharp sell-off in the global market and further outflow of capital.