Look Forward To The Industry'S Positive Attitude Towards The Two Quarter Economy.

Reporters recently interviewed found that the first quarter of this year, the port operation situation improved, the main bulk. Raw material Prices gradually shifted from the previous fall to a split pattern, and industrial raw material prices showed signs of stabilization. Experts say that judging from the recent price signals of commodities, market Confidence in industrial manufacturing has been restored, and the throughput of major ports is picking up. The demand for replenishment of enterprises is strong, and the economic stabilization is good.

Data showed a growth trend in port throughput in the first quarter.

Last year, due to domestic overcapacity and shipping industry downturn, the port industry also had difficulties in operation. Qingdao port international freight logistics company official told reporters that in the severe economic situation, last year, the main ports of the domestic business situation is not very optimistic. Taking the container heavy containers which can best reflect the foreign trade situation as an example, the increase of heavy cargo throughput of Qingdao port in 2015 was only 3.6%, much lower than that of the two digit growth in previous years.

Similar to the port of Qingdao, the container throughput of Shanghai port in 2015 was 36 million 537 thousand TEUs, an increase of only 3.5%, lower than the growth rate of 3.8% and 4.5% in 2013 and 2014. The growth rate of cargo throughput and container throughput in Xiamen port ranked the highest in the whole country, but the growth rate was only 5.9% and 6.7%, respectively, and the container throughput of Ningbo port and Shenzhen port decreased to varying degrees.

Since the beginning of this year, the international prices of bulk materials such as coal and metal ores have been low. Domestic steel mills and traders have increased import procurement, and the port business situation has improved. Data released by the Ministry of transport revealed that in the first quarter, the cargo handling capacity of the above designated port reached 27.6 billion tons, up 1.7% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than that of the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the growth rate of domestic cargo throughput increased from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year to 1.5%, while foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 1.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. The completion of container throughput of 50 million TEUs, an increase of 1.9%, was slower than the fourth quarter of last year by 0.9 percentage points.

The reporter learned from Qingdao port that in the first quarter of this year, Qingdao port had a total of more than 227 8000TEU ships, and 8 large ships in the single port capacity of more than 10 thousand TEU, the highest single ship single loading and unloading capacity 13853TEU, the international transfer box grew 31% over the same period. Qingdao port container throughput 4 million 428 thousand and 400 TEU, an increase of 4.8% over the same period. So far, in the competition of container throughput, Qingdao port ranked the world over Hongkong to fifth.

Zhanjiang, Guangdong also achieved a good start in port production, and port cargo, passenger, RO ro cars, key materials and other indicators of throughput reached a record high. Among them, the port cargo throughput reached 71 million 930 thousand tons, an increase of 11 million tons, an increase of 18%, an increase of 4 million 870 thousand in passenger throughput, an increase of 337 thousand over the same period, an increase of 7.4%; the roll out vehicle throughput of 889 thousand vehicles, an increase of 106 thousand vehicles, an increase of 13.5%; the throughput of key materials reached 23 million 780 thousand tons, an increase of 4 million 680 thousand tons, an increase of 4 million 680 thousand.

Trend commodity market supply and demand is now showing signs of improvement

Affected by many factors such as de stocking, inflation expectations and warmer demand, China's bulk commodity The market has increased significantly in recent years. In the first half of April this year, from the precious metals, black products to agricultural products, the whole commodity market experienced a wave of rise. Just a week ago in April 21st, commodities staged a frenzy of daily trading. PTA, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean 1, corn, PVC, eggs, starch, iron ore, fuel oil and asphalt were the 11 main varieties, and the main contract was sealed up.

Experts say that the confidence of the market in industrial manufacturing economy has been restored from the recent commodity price signals, but whether it can continue to be verified in the peak season, especially in the first half of this year. Zhang Jianhui, director of the Yunnan copper futures department, said that the shift of the commodity market from the previous fall to the current market differentiation shows that market confidence has been restored from one side, especially in the context of the turmoil of the overseas financial market. The market is full of expectations for domestic seasonal demand. However, the demand for the latter entity needs to be further verified.

It is worth mentioning that in terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the supply and demand of commodities are expected to show signs of improvement. Take copper, a leader of the metal market, for example, Hu Jianbin, general manager of the futures Department of Jiang copper group, said that consumption of copper will soon enter the peak season of consumption. As the consumption of copper in the domestic market is concentrated in the fields of electricity and household appliances, the investment of the State Grid after the Spring Festival, and the downstream manufacturers including air conditioners will be stocking up for the purchase of products before the summer. The physical consumption of March to June will determine the basic market for the whole year, and the market's consumption expectation for this year's peak season will be better.

Market analysts said that after the previous decline, the phenomenon of mine production reduction and delayed production of new mines began to appear. The international mining enterprises' compensation for domestic copper smelting processing fees dropped, indicating that the surplus of copper concentrate will be reduced in 2016, and so is the iron ore market. On demand, as the world's major commodity consumer country, China's economic data in January made overseas markets expect that China's demand will not slow down significantly, especially in January, which added 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan of credit.

Look forward to the industry's positive attitude towards the two quarter economy.

Facing the downward pressure of the economy, the port industry is actively exploring the source of goods and innovating business. For example, Xiamen port continuously promotes the integration of resources such as berth resources, tally business and logistics business, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency, promote the construction of feeder ports and the layout of inland outlets, foster business increments, and implement the "hinterland strategy" and make positive progress.

The Chongqing orchards in the inland hinterland play a leading role in the combined transport of iron and water. In 2015, the train transported to the northwest by the water running railway reached 274 columns. At present, it is stable in 3 columns. In July of last year, after opening the container train of "Yu Rong" hot metal intermodal container, it attracted the containers from Guiyang, Panzhihua, Xichang and Deyang to the orchard port transshipment waterway. At present, the daily arrival is stable in 2 to 3 columns.

The latest report of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center shows that in the first quarter of this year, the national port enterprises' prosperity index and confidence index are not high, the port business prosperity index is 79.04, and the port enterprise confidence index is 87.14, which is in the recession area. Insiders said that with the growth of throughput, the port industry situation is expected to be better than that of last year, and the prosperity index and confidence index of port enterprises will also rise.

Some industry experts believe that the operation of the futures market basically reflects the real expectations of the current market. "Taking into account the leading role of commodity futures prices in the macro economy." Xie Ya, senior researcher of the futures and Options Research Center of Beijing Da Shang Institute, judged that if there was no worse situation later than the current period, it indicated that the domestic manufacturing industry and the whole macro-economy could stabilize in the first two quarters.

Analyst Xie Yaxuan believes that the rebound in global commodity prices will continue to push upward for imports compared with the same period last year, but because China's imports are mainly commodity, the rebound in prices may narrow the trade surplus. In addition, the rebound in commodity prices will narrow the difference between producer price index PPI and consumer price index CPI. The negative growth of PPI in the two quarter will continue to converge, and the magnitude will be larger than that of CPI.