USDA Report: Global Output And Inventory Decrease

According to the US Department of agriculture's global production and demand forecast for April, the US cotton production (12345, -180.00, -1.44%) was reduced by 73 thousand packages in 2015/16, and domestic consumption and export volume remained unchanged. The final inventory dropped by 100 thousand to 3 million 500 thousand bales.

The average annual farm price is 58-59 cents.

On the global side, global cotton initial inventory and output decreased in 2015/16, consumption increased slightly, and end inventories decreased by 1 million 100 thousand.

At the beginning of the world, inventories were cut by 300 thousand packages, production was reduced by 400 thousand packages, consumption in China and Pakistan increased, but consumption in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Turkey was reduced.

The end of the world inventory is expected to be 102 million 200 thousand bales.

As for cotton production and marketing, as of April 22, 2016, the new cotton harvest has ended. The national sales rate is 95.2%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease compared with the same period last year, which is 2.5 percentage points slower than the normal years in the past four years, of which the mainland sale rate is 84.4%, and the Xinjiang sale is over.

In terms of processing and marketing, according to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of April 22nd, the total processing lint 4 million 895 thousand tons in the whole country decreased by 1 million 82 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, which was reduced by 2 million 111 thousand tons compared with the normal years in the past four years, of which 3 million 642 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 3 million 873 thousand tons of leather cotton sold, down 62 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, which was 2 million 255 thousand tons lower than that in the normal years of the past four years, of which Xinjiang sold a 2 million 714 thousand ton of lint cotton.

In terms of cotton cultivation, according to the survey report of the national cotton planting area in March, the cotton output in the year of 2016/17 is expected to be 4 million 811 thousand tons, down 7.8% from the same period last year.

In addition, according to the 2016 cotton planting progress survey results: as of April 15th, the whole country

The seeding rate was 46.78%, slowing down by 13.5 percentage points.

Among them, the sowing rate of Xinjiang was 63.3%, which was 25.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.

The progress is 33%, the seeding progress of the Yangtze River Basin is 1.8%, the seedling raising schedule is 70.3%, and the seedling sowing schedule of the mainland is faster than that of the same period last year.

According to customs statistics, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in March 2016, 57 thousand and 900 tons of cotton imported from China increased by 1 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 2.97%, a decrease of 70 thousand tons and a decrease of 54.73% over the same period.

In September 2015 -2016 March, China imported 575 thousand and 400 tons of cotton, a decrease of 434 thousand and 200 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 43.01%.

In 1-3 months of 2016, China imported 209 thousand and 700 tons of cotton, a decrease of 238 thousand and 500 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 53.21%.

From the above data, we can see that this year's lint processing and sales are relatively slow, indicating that downstream demand is still sluggish.

In terms of new year planting, cotton growers' willingness to grow continues to decline, and cotton production in the next year is expected to continue to decrease.