The Trend Of Cotton Price Is Relatively Independent At Home And Abroad

Zheng cotton weakened, strong support in the vicinity of 12000, night plate narrow fluctuations.

After second weeks of cotton storage, the turnover is still hot, but the price increases are relatively calm.

The turnover rate is high at the initial stage of operation, which is in line with our previous expectations.

Overnight, the US cotton continued to weaken, and 100% of the imports of cotton from China's cotton reserves were closed.

India's domestic cotton prices remain high.

Huge reserves in China

The pressure on global cotton prices has been reduced, and the lowest price of India CCI has been set at the bottom cotton price, and domestic and foreign cotton prices are relatively independent.

Maintain long-term shocks.

It is expected that with the completion of the replenishment stage of cotton enterprises, the turnover rate will decline.

Meanwhile, with the continuous supply of reserve cotton resources, cotton prices in the spot market are under pressure.

At present, the commodity market is weakening and it is expected that Zheng cotton will be weak and volatile.

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From the reserve cotton resources listed on sale in recent days, the color level of imported cotton in public inspection in 2012 is mostly low grade cotton grade 1, low grade cotton grade two and yellow dyed cotton grade. The 2013 domestic cotton reinspection grades are mostly 12, 22 or even 32, and the difference between imported cotton and cotton is very small. Taking spinning 32S and 40S cotton yarn as an example (high quality reserve cotton, American cotton can spin JC40S, C60S), according to the current round of paction price, small and medium-sized textile enterprises still have 400-500 yuan / ton profit, but the average price of rotation is higher than that of 12900 yuan / ton.

Next week, reserve cotton auction price adjustment downward range is not large, and taking into account the short-term textile enterprises and traders enthusiasm for auction, the increase in price range, the reserve price fine-tuning on the final paction price and market sentiment almost no impact, the market for next Sunday is a high degree of concern about the turn out volume, mainly worried about the ability of public inspection (packet inspection pressure prominent), warehouse loading and unloading and outgoing ability can keep up with.

However, what China cotton net reporter is most concerned about is whether there is profit in the use of cotton and cotton spun yarn for participating in the auction and high price paction. How high is the profit?

In the first ten days of May, the price of C32 and C40S medium cotton yarn in China's light textile market was concentrated at 19200-19500 yuan / ton (20000-20200 yuan / ton) and 21000-21500 yuan / ton.

C32S processing fee is calculated at 5000 yuan / ton (40S processing cost is about 6000 yuan / ton, including workers' wages, electricity charges and other expenses), from short to 6000 yuan per ton of freight, from the cotton mill to the market, which is calculated by 300-400 yuan / ton (the textile market is concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places), the difference between cotton yarn and cotton value-added tax deduction is 4%, and the loss of spinning C32S yarn is calculated by 5%.

The spinning of C40S and C60S yarn has higher requirements for cotton grade and quality. The bid price of the auction is also increased, the profit situation is slightly higher than that of C32S yarn, but the turnover is obviously lower than that of C32S and C21S yarns.

The auction of 12, 22 imports of American cotton, West African cotton and even Australian cotton spinning JC32, JC40S yarn profits are very attractive, but it is still necessary to observe whether or not it can hit the India, Vietnam, Pakistan and Central Asian cotton mills in the international market. The cost of cotton raw materials has fallen to 800 yuan / ton, but the CV value of the combed cotton yarn, the breakage rate of 100 meters and other indicators can be tested independently.

4 and 5, the average price of imported cotton was 12459 yuan / ton and 12501 yuan / ton respectively. According to the data of public inspection, the price of cotton and cotton yarn in line with spinning JC40S or above was basically over 13000 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of JC40 domestic yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang market is about 24500 yuan / ton (intermediate yarn), with the cost of 12 or 22 cotton spinning JC40S, the cost is about 23600 yuan / ton (processing fee is calculated by 8000 yuan / ton, including financial cost), sales and successful recovery of the loan, net profit of about 800-1000 yuan / ton, if there is credit and account period, the profit will drop sharply.

It is worth noting that the cotton prices in recent ICE period and cotton prices in India have been declining at a high level. The cost of domestic spinning is also decreasing. Will it be difficult to judge whether the internal and external cotton yarn will be combined to descend so as to sharply reduce the expected profit margins.