What Will The Chinese Economy Really Do When It Goes To L?

In the process of pferring from financial assets to physical assets, it is better to buy gold instead of dollars, because gold is not only physical assets, but also the most obvious financial attributes.

The real estate market also has structural opportunities in the near future.

When he attended Sharon's research on supply side reform and futures market in Shanghai, Li Xunlei said that China's economic growth will usher in a downward trend in the future, and this downward trend is inevitable.

He explained:

"This is actually a demographic phenomenon, and it is irreversible.

We are encountering the downward cycle of population, aging population and low fertility rate, which is not seen in history.

In fact, if we can maintain a GDP growth rate of 5%, we will be very successful.

We must not take GDP too seriously. There is a mistake in it.

Look at the US.

The growth rate is only 2%, but the ROE (net asset yield) of the world's top five hundred enterprises is 15%, but the ROE level of China's top five hundred enterprises after tax deduction is 7%.

When the company is ready, employment is good.

There will be a share. "

Li Xunlei believes that since 2011, China's economy has entered a downward cycle, including the downward trend of the real estate industry, the downward pace of urbanization, the downward trend of commodity prices and the downward trend of automobile sales. Under the superposition of multiple factors, such a downward cycle has not changed in the past 5 years, and it will continue in the short term.

Under such economic background, investors' asset allocation mentality has also changed.

Li Xunlei believes that capital is moving from financial assets to physical assets. The hot market in the futures market since the beginning of 2016 confirms this shift. At the same time, there are structural opportunities in the real estate market in the near future.

In addition, overseas market allocation should also be strengthened.

Li Xunlei said, "Why are Chinese companies going abroad for acquisitions this year? Because overseas assets are cheap, overseas currencies are in excess, but they are not as strong as China."

The data disclosed by CCB show that the proportion of overseas assets in the total assets of residents is only 1.6%, with a small proportion.

There is a paragraph saying, "in 1974, 1 ounces of gold could buy 736 pounds of pork, equivalent to 184 dollars, and 40 years later, 1 ounces of gold could buy 844 pounds of pork in 2014, equivalent to 1140 dollars."

Li Xunlei also said that instead of buying gold instead of buying dollars, he did not recommend investors to exchange dollars in a rush.

Because gold is not only physical assets, but also the most obvious financial attributes.

As for the stock market, Li Xunlei said there are still structural opportunities.

In particular, he pointed out that the possibility of A shares being included in the MSCI emerging market index in June is quite large.

In terms of industry, there are three main lines of investment, including new consumption, such as sports entertainment, health care, information economy, such as big data, video, virtual reality (VR), and intelligent manufacturing, such as robots, smart cars.

Li Xunlei, the "authoritative person" of the people's daily on the heated debate of the market, is going to show the trend of the "L" trend of the Chinese economy in the future. "If the Chinese economy really wants to take the L type, the Chinese dream will be realized and the middle income trap will be crossed."