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    Will China'S Stock Market Usher In The Era Of Value Investing?

    2016/5/19 10:53:00 28

    ChinaStock MarketValue Investing

    Last Friday, I attended a symposium on global asset allocation.

    To my surprise, most of the public and private stars are emphasizing value investing. This is a big contrast with last year's talk about growth, new China, network technology and industry 4.

    So, will the Chinese stock market really usher in the era of value investing? In the meantime, the regulatory authorities have obviously tightened the arbitrage mode for the refinancing of China's stock market after privatization, which is seeking for backdoor listing and private placement in the country, though no relevant policies and regulations have yet been seen.

    But investors, who are extremely sensitive to the market, have responded swiftly, and the prices of those originally belonging to "shell resources" have dropped sharply.

    Besides,

    Cyclical stock

    Already frustrated, small and medium-sized enterprises have overdrawn in the past few years, so increasing the allocation of value shares with low price earnings ratio is also reasonable.

    However, it is considered that the era of value investment is coming, is this a bit more serious? That is, the current situation is regarded as a future trend.

    This is a mistake that everyone often makes when judging a trend, that is, giving the current impact factor too much weight and giving the past influence factors a small weight.

    Because the current influence factors have great influence on everyone's emotions, but as time goes on, emotions will return to normal.

    For example, at the beginning of this year, with the rebound of commodity prices, many investors thought that the new round of economic cycle was going to start.

    But with the continuous disclosure of macroeconomic data, the rise of the cycle was quickly falsified.

    This shows that the long-term trend is only a long-term factor, and the short-term trend is only a short-term factor.

    Investors and market analysts often suffer from collective misjudgments because they often launch long-term results with short-term factors.

    The same is true for macroeconomic analysis. Monthly data and even quarterly data are only short-term factors that do not reflect long-term trends.

    Moreover, once the trend is formed, it will last for a long time.

    Therefore, I often say that the long-term trend is consistent with the deductive method, and the short-term rebound is in line with the dialectics.

    Investors and scholars always want to find what and what they want, but history will not change their tempo because of your eagerness.

    Regulated market performance is the regulation of stock issuance, including issuing scale and issuing price, including market entry and exit control.

    Despite the implementation of the membership system, the stock exchange has not held a general assembly for 20 years, and the stock exchange has only been 26 years since its establishment.

    In the mature securities market, most of the exchanges are implemented by the company system, and many exchanges have been listed, including the Hongkong stock exchange and the Taiwan stock exchange.

    In contrast, domestic stock exchanges, as subordinate departments of regulatory agencies, need to undertake too many tasks and responsibilities. Under the pressure of multi-target, their marketization will be difficult to improve.

    For example, the delisting system of listed companies is an important system to solve the problem of survival of the fittest. Although A shares have long been delisting system, the real delisting companies are very rare.

    The reason is still to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors.

    But this kind of protection can only encourage speculation and make investors fantasies about "black chicken becoming Phoenix", which is not conducive to forming.

    Value Investing

    Idea.

    For example, the registration system can make the distribution system more market-oriented, but it has been postponed.

    In terms of openness, domestic investors can not invest directly in foreign exchange securities through brokers through capital controls.

    At present, Shanghai and Hong Kong have only been opened. This is also achieved through the interconnection between the stock exchange of Hongkong and the stock exchange of Hong Kong.

    Due to the limited investment targets selected by Shanghai and Hong Kong, the mainland investors' investment in Hongkong stock is not large, and the quota is far from enough.

    In terms of the opening up of the securities market, the opening degree is not large. QFII adopted quota management. By the end of 2015, the market value of QFII plus RQFII accounted for only 1% of the market value of A shares.

    Compared with South Korea and Taiwan, QIFF quota management has been abolished.

    The deregulation of the securities market is beneficial to the formation of the value investment concept. If the price limit is issued and issued at a limited price, the supply shortage will be caused artificially.

    Over the past 26 years, the market trading arbitrage pattern of new, small and short speculation has been sustained for a long time, which is also related to the issue of market control.

    From the point of view of market opening, two-way opening at home and abroad is conducive to diversification of investment channels and greater investment options. It will not cause excessive speculation because of only one channel of domestic stock market.

    At present, even the stock market of emerging markets such as India, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines has a high degree of openness. The proportion of overseas investors is much higher than China's 1% level, for example, South Korea and India are about 30%.


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