Niu Wenxin'S Interpretation Of The Most Obvious Problem Of A Shares

China has been engaged in "financial liberalization" in recent years, and the short-term financial crisis brought about by financial liberalization has made China's financial market more and more far away from the real economy, and the overall economy has "become real and virtual".

As a venue for the pricing of real economic capital, the real economy is expected to deteriorate, and the share price will certainly not rise.

Therefore, the fundamental way of China's deleveraging must be: raising the total net assets of the total capital of the state, and improving the quality of the economy and improving the expected value of net assets; at the same time, reversing the trend of China's financial short-term trend, making the financial market more conducive to capital generation.

1, the vice president of the Academy of Social Sciences and the famous financier, Mr. Li Yang, have attracted much attention recently.

Because he led the "national finance and development laboratory" unprecedented development of the "national balance sheet".

This is of course a very meaningful thing. It allows us to see clearly the home of China and find out the overall debt risk of the country, rather than being fooled by others.

Recently, some foreign institutions have repeatedly hint at China's debt risk, and the data are horror one.

For example, Moodie, an international rating agency, issued a report that China's overall debt level has reached 280% of GDP, far above the average of 175% in emerging markets. Victor Schwarz, an analyst with Macquarie of the international investment bank, reckon: China: Viktorshvets

As high as 35 trillion dollars, close to 350% of GDP.

2. Under such a background, Li Yang's team's research is more significant.

China's overall debt is only 248% of GDP, according to data released by Chinese authorities.

Li Yang believes that although such a debt level is high, but overall controllable, but also describes the reasons for the high level of China's debt, and possible solutions.

It should be said that it looks very similar.

3, but I also want to give some advice to Mr. Li Yang. After all, he is an old friend. I hope Mr. Li Yang will forgive him.

The problem is in June 12th, sponsored by Tencent financial and atomic think tank.

And fair - high leverage risk and response, "luncheon and Mr. Li Yang's speech.

When it comes to the problem of "deleveraging", Li Yang gives the methodology of "6+2+1".

He pointed out that reducing leverage is one way to constantly increase the leverage ratio denominator ---GDP. On the other hand, we use inflation to dilute leverage molecules - debt.

At the same time, through the production and operation activities, we continue to add some real property.

4, I think this is wrong.

Because "leverage" refers to the "debt rate", the denominator of the debt rate is "total assets of the state" rather than GDP.

GDP is only the gross national product of that year. The reason why people use the total amount of debt to compare with GDP is only for comparison between countries, because the total assets and value of the state are hard to calculate.

Therefore, Li Yang thought that it is wrong to "reduce leverage by making GDP bigger".

In fact, the process of increasing GDP is also a process of synchronous growth of liabilities. According to Mr. Li Yang's calculation, the ratio of total debt to GDP is 248%, which means that China will increase its liabilities of 2.48 yuan for every 1 yuan increase in GDP.

Therefore, increasing the GDP to reduce the debt rate is not only impossible, but also counterproductive. The result will only increase the leverage ratio.

5, what is the basic way to solve the leverage ratio? To raise the net asset portion of the total capital of the state should not only increase the total amount of this part, but also increase the value of this part.

This requires China's expectation of improving economic quality, improving enterprise efficiency and raising economic value.

I'm sorry, Mr. Li Yang. This is only the stock market.

The rising share price of listed companies is precisely the result of the expected increase in the value of assets of the company, and it is also the direction that China must strive for in the future.

And you can't agree with the judgment of "lifting the stock price" deleveraging "as a trap.

Of course, I think what you said may be "do not pull artificially high."

There is no doubt about deleveraging, but we must distinguish the situation.

6, I believe that the current situation in China's stock market is "capital pricing failure", so asset prices are too dry, especially the value of some state-owned blue chips has been seriously underestimated.

Against this background, it is reasonable to use some policies to make a reasonable return of stock prices.

Mr. Li Yang's speech pointed out that the US leverage ratio has dropped by 24%, of which 18% is rising by the US stock market.

But Li Yang believes that the United States can do this, China can not.

The reason is that the United States has been in crisis for 8 years, and the stock market has gone up for 8 years. Li Yang thought, "this is not reliable for us," and how can it increase the stock market for 8 years by 8 years?

7, Mr. Li Yang, I think that he put forward this view because he did not understand the United States, nor did he understand China.

In my view, the macro economic situation and the micro economic situation of enterprises must be treated separately.

During the financial crisis, the massive rescue of "systemically important enterprises" by the United States was actually "putting the bad debts of the micro economic entities (capitalists) on the government". This not only embodies the core concept of "capital supremacy" and "capital service" of the capitalist society, but also results in the rapid recovery of the economic vitality of the market players.

Note: the health of corporate assets will certainly push up its share price. The rise in share prices will help the United States to leverage, and the US economy with leverage removed is healthier. This is a virtuous circle.