What Do You Think Of Jingdong 40 Billion'S Acquisition Of 1 Shop?

about

40 billion acquisition

Rumors, it is difficult for everyone. First, the adjustment of shop No. 1 is inevitable.

Two, the rumor is full of loopholes.

Rumour

In the recent history of development, there are many rumors about Shop No. 1, but there are more hearsay that never happened.

For example, reporters learned that several companies were entering Shanghai.

Or when a major strategic move is made, the PR team of the enterprise plans to launch the acquisition of shop No. 1 or the "industry rumor" related to shop No. 1 to help enterprises develop the market.

But all of these were abandoned by the final "worry" of the business leaders.

Therefore, for the Jingdong 40 billion acquisition of 1 shop rumors, the first thing to do is to see if it is possible to exclude the "public relations strategy" factor.

We asked the PR team of WAL-MART, Jingdong and shop 1. The reply received was very interesting. The reply of WAL-MART, Jingdong and No. 1 store was not commented.

We also inquired about Alibaba, which was jointly sold by shop No. 1 yesterday, and Alibaba related persons explicitly replied that they would not buy it.

As a public company, rumours are usually "clarified". No such thing will deny that no one wants to be "consumed".

I do not know or do not reply, either because I do not know, or because I do not want to disclose more information.

Without comment, it is more like the "whole" behavior of the company from top to bottom. Therefore, Jingdong and WAL-MART are likely to talk about matters such as shop No. 1.

Otherwise, both sides want to attract market attention.

Some other "trends" also show Jingdong's "change".

For example, Jingdong's share price has dropped sharply in recent days, and has fallen to the IPO issuing price.

The stock price fluctuated normally, and the stock price did not fluctuate. How did investors and investment institutions make money? Relatively abnormal place was the "excessive" reaction of Jingdong to its own stock price in recent years.

In addition to accusing overseas institutions of "sharing the same type" of Jingdong shares in the short term, the Jingdong staff even went to battle in person in the short term, and called on everyone in WeChat to buy Jingdong shares.

Why is Jingdong so sensitive to share prices recently? Reporters believe that besides the options of management and employees, Jingdong is likely to consider investing in equity investments or introducing strategic investors in the near future.

Jingdong needs to strengthen its share price to grasp more resources or to sell a good price.

Price loopholes

However, there are still many loopholes in Jingdong's 40 billion acquisition of No. 1 shop.

We mainly aim at the purchase price.

Is shop No. 1 now worth 40 billion yuan? We don't think we can sell it.

A leader in the vertical field of the domestic B2C industry even "exaggerated" with business observers that 4 hundred million is almost the same.

Some analysts have told business observers that if Jingdong is to follow the "routine" of the Jingdong, 40 billion is the "first step" price, and the next step will be a discount of 20 billion, and the next step will be even lower.

If Jingdong finally successfully invested in shop No. 1, the total paction price is 40 billion, then business observers believe that this is the overall price of WAL-MART and Jingdong cooperation, including WAL-MART's possible investment in Jingdong equity.

The asset price of shop No. 1 is not enough to support 40 billion.

There are three main reasons.

First, the No. 1 store is gradually degenerating into "Shanghai store". Its market scope has been shrinking, and the influence of the whole country has been gradually weakened. However, the B2C field is without a competitive buffer layer at the spatial level.

Therefore, the cost of Shanghai's "earth conservation" is really high. There is no room for growth and how to tell "story".

Two, the market structure is solidified.

At present, the physical retailers self built platform to do B2C business is basically a loss of business, are also in pition O2O way to do business.

The whole B2C market has formed two "winner take all" situations of Ali and Jingdong platforms.

The high cost of traffic has led to the gradual loss of access to the market.

Shop No. 1 is difficult to obtain enough traffic resources to support its B2C business through its own and WAL-MART channels.

Everyone can see your "predicament". Why should we pay high price?

Three, the growth rate of the market has declined and competition has intensified.

The market growth rate of China's B2C electricity supplier industry is declining, which means that the cost and cost of developing the market are very high. Tmall and Jingdong are also investing heavily in the development of resources supermarket business. The "edge" B2C platform continues to operate with large capital requirements and losses may expand.

Market growth also means downward pressure on Industry Valuation increases.

Just a year ago, to buy a vertical B2C platform, the platform operator would have 2 times PS (market sales rate) valuation, otherwise it would not be discussed.

Now, if I say so, I really don't want to talk about it.

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In 2015, the net income of Jingdong was 181 billion 300 million yuan. In the 1 quarter of 2016, Jingdong's net income increased by 47% compared to the same period last year, reaching 54 billion yuan, while the latest market value of Jingdong was only 180 billion. Compared with 2015, it was 1 times PS valuation. Compared with 2016, it was less than 1 times the value of Jingdong PS.

So, how much high valuation can Jingdong give to store No. 1? If it is higher, can Jingdong's investment shareholders agree? Because they are not so high.

Shop No. 1 has not disclosed any specific operational data since 2013.

In 2013, the sales volume of shop No. 1 was 11 billion 540 million. In 2014, the industry estimated at around 20 billion yuan.

In the last two years, if there is no decline, it is difficult to sell at 20 billion according to the current valuation.

As a result, reporters believe that Jingdong 40 billion acquisition of No. 1 shop rumors, there is no credibility.

Integration is the trend

Finally, I would like to talk about whether Jingdong and WAL-MART have any possibility of "cooperation".

Reporters believe that there are still some, because from the business perspective, it is possible.

First, WAL-MART has no opportunity to operate B2C business in China.

The first thing WAL-MART should do is not to let Shop No. 1 become a financial black hole for enterprise development.

And the Jingdong has a flow base, which can help store No. 1 to develop B2C business.

Two, Jingdong has recently developed supermarkets and other supermarket businesses to catch up with Tmall supermarkets.

The 1 shop's past business base is valuable, and it also has a basis for cooperation with WAL-MART.

The key is price. If the price is right, there is cooperation value. The price is not right.

Three, there is a sharp increase in the demand for integration and competition reduction in the weak domestic consumer market environment.

The macro policy environment is also promoting this trend, such as monetary policy and supply side reform.

Monetary policy is becoming more "loose", which leads to two interesting phenomena. First, the sales and profits of enterprises are decreasing or the growth rate is going down.

First, the supply of macro funds is increasing.

What else can we do at this time of unconformity?

The supply side reform has two sides, the positive one is to reduce production capacity and reduce inventory, the other is to prevent large-scale social unemployment.

So we still have to "integrate".