Production And Marketing For Many Days "Blowout", Polyester Filament Blown Up Price Storm

Due to the poor production efficiency of POY, it is at a loss for a long time.

In June 27th, POY four big family Tong Kun, Heng Yi, Xin Feng Ming, and two rabbits gathered together (four POY Nissan reached eighteen thousand) to reach the alliance: the four sides unified pricing.

Judging from the effect of the current alliance,

Filament products showed obvious trend of pull up, especially POY, the profit side has improved.

The polyester market has finally caught the enthusiasm of the first half of the year, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing has been rising.

For example, the semi light FDY 75D/36F quotation rose to 7650 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last week, increased by 300 yuan; DTY 150D/288F quotation rose to 8700 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan; while POY 150D/144F price increased to 7100 yuan / ton, which rose nearly 500 yuan compared with the same period last week.

The reason why the POY rise is far ahead is still the reason for the growth of the profit growth of polyester filament production this year.

According to statistics, in 2016 1-6, the average profit of polyester POY150D/48F was -189.10 yuan / ton, down 507.29% compared with the same period last year; the average profit of polyester FDY150D/96F was 109.24 yuan / ton, up 204.65% compared to the same period last year.

The gap is so large that manufacturers have to pull up POY prices in order to balance the profits between products, which has become the fuse for the "four strong alliance" conference.

So what is the reason for the two major varieties of polyester filament?

First, the proportion of production is out of balance.

In 2016 1-6, China's melt spinning polyester filament industry added three sets of equipment, namely, the 500 thousand tons of Tong Kun Heng Teng two, 100 thousand tons of Jiangsu Lixin, and 300 thousand tons of new Feng Ming Zhong Ying two, a total of 900 thousand tons.

Among them, the new production capacity of polyester POY is 810 thousand tons (including 800 thousand tons of half light POY and 10 thousand tons of cationic POY), and the new capacity of polyester FDY is 70 thousand tons (cationic FDY).

Simple calculation, polyester POY and polyester FDY production capacity ratio is close to 10:1.

Judging from the actual output, as of the end of 2016 6, the new half light POY total 2400 tons / day, including the Tong Kun Heng Teng two phase 1600 tons / day, the new Feng Ming Zhongying two phase 800 tons / day; new cation

240 tons, including cations POY200 tons / day, cationic FDY40 tons / day.

Second, seasonal differences in demand.

In the first half of this year, the number of orders for flannel and coral velvet in Changshu warp knitting industry was obviously less than that of the same period last year, resulting in a low overall load of warp knitting machines, and low demand for raw materials such as 120D/192F and 150D/288F. At the same time, Changxin water jet mill cloth (main raw material 75D-300D, etc.) was in plain condition. Local enterprises generally indicated that the funds were slow to return, so the filling operation of raw materials was relatively prudent.

On the contrary, the demand for polyester FDY is generally good. Wujiang spray Oxford cloth, Haining warp knitting super flexible, Shaoxing round machine fleece and

Product performance is relatively dynamic sales.

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Then, will the polyester Market in the second half of this year be better than the same period?

1. Although the start-up load of polyester is in the same period, the seasonal rule is still in existence.

As can be seen from Fig. 1, the operation rate of polyester presents obvious seasonal regularity.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the parking capacity of polyester is higher, and the operating rate is at a low level throughout the whole year. After the Spring Festival, the starting rate of polyester gradually rises. It is generally believed that 4-5 and 9-10 months are the peak season for polyester, while the 6-8 is the traditional off-season.

Why is the polyester starting rate in the two quarter of this year better than that in the same period?

Looking at the trend of polyester production rate in recent years, we can find that the operation rate of polyester before and after the Spring Festival is at a low level throughout the year. The production capacity of polyester factories can be seen much more than that. The parking capacity of polyester filament is only over 9 million tons.

Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the stock pressure of polyester factories is smaller than in previous years, and the stocking of terminal stocks before the Spring Festival is much less than that of the previous years, making the sales of polyester factories more smooth than that of the same period.

This has also contributed to the rapid rise in the operating rate of polyester after the Spring Festival. In April this year, the operating rate of polyester started a new high in the same period.

However, even though the operating rate of polyester in the two quarter is better than the same period in previous years, we still find that the seasonal rule of polyester has not changed this year. After the 4-5 month high load, the operating rate in June has declined, but the load drop is smaller than that in the same period.

Figure 1: Polyester start-up rate (%)

2, G20 summit will affect polyester load.

The G20 summit is related to environmental protection. Although so far, polyester enterprises have not issued a clear maintenance plan. However, according to statistics, the polyester production capacity of Zhejiang and Shanghai areas reached by G20 summit reached 45% of the total capacity. According to the polyester load of 80% in June, the daily output of polyester was affected by 46 thousand tons.

Of course, in fact, the actual load of polyester enterprises will be reduced on the eve of G20, and at the same time, considering the actual implementation of the enterprise, effective production capacity may not be able to achieve so many quantities.

But the impact of G20 Summit on polyester will start to appear in late 8.

Figure two: distribution of polyester production capacity in Zhejiang and Shanghai

As can be seen from figure three, although polyester has maintained a good operating rate since April this year, the overall stock of polyester is not high.

If polyester needs a lot of parking during the G20 period, the downstream is bound to be stocked before the conference, and there is a need for replenishment after the holiday. Therefore, this year's 7 and August are in the traditional off-season, but the polyester plant's start-up condition or preference in previous years is showing the situation that the off-season is not bad.

Fig. three: FDY stock of polyester filament (day)

To sum up, although the current operating rate of polyester is preferred over the same period in previous years, the seasonal regularity of polyester is still effective. Following the slight decline in polyester operating rate in June, it is expected that the market will continue to weaken in July, with only a limited margin. Under the influence of the G20 summit, the starting rate of polyester in the middle of 8 will usher in another low point this year.