The Trend Of Cotton Yarn Production To The Midwest Cotton Production Area Is Obvious.

The operation of China's textile industry continues to exhibit the following characteristics: the overall deceleration of all indicators, some of which are even the lowest level of growth over the years, the domestic demand market has not improved significantly, and the weak recovery trend of the export market has not changed. The overcapacity contradiction caused by the overall slowdown in demand has become increasingly prominent.

The rapid expansion of horse race enclosure is unsustainable. The "golden age" of the industry has passed and the turning point has emerged.

Low growth or even zero growth may become a new normal for the textile industry, and even the possibility of negative growth can not be ruled out.

The development of China's textile industry has entered a new stage of deep pformation and upgrading.

1) the amount of cotton consumption shrinks:

A) from the institutional data: ICAC data show that consumption in 2010-2015 years has shrunk by 2 million 860 thousand tons, USDA370 million tons, China Cotton Association 3 million 800 thousand tons, and cotton trade association 4 million 400 thousand tons.

We believe that from 2010 to now, the overall shrinkage is around 3 million 700 thousand tons.

B) from the perspective of productivity change, in 2010, China's cotton textile industry produced about 121 million spindles, and the number of spindles dropped to 7000-8000 million spindles in 2014, with a shrinkage of over 30%.

2) changes in cotton consumption pattern:

A) there will be significant changes in cotton consumption in China in the future. From a scale perspective, low growth or even negative growth will become the norm, and the number will show a gradual shrinking trend. From a structural point of view, the low-end market will gradually be replaced by imported yarn. With the upgrading of consumption, the focus of domestic cotton yarn consumption will also gradually move to the high-end and high-end fields, and the product structure of domestic spinning enterprises will be adjusted accordingly.

We should be conscious of the capacity stage and structural overcapacity.

B) changes in the consumption structure of cotton yarn will accelerate the pformation of textile enterprises.

First,

To increase the production and development of high count yarn, chemical fiber blended yarn and new fiber yarn; two, upgrading the technology and equipment, and increasing the application of new spinning methods such as compact spinning and siro spinning, etc. (as of the end of 2014, China's compact spinning has exceeded 18 million spindles); three

To pfer productivity to the central and western cotton producing areas (key Xinjiang) or Southeast Asia (key Vietnam).

C) foreign enterprises are eyeing the Chinese market.

The Shanghai international textile yarn (Chun Xia) exhibition in 2015, which opened in March 16th, mainly came from India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Uzbekistan.

In the past few years, the import volume of foreign yarn has increased significantly. We believe that the trend is irreversible. Chinese enterprises can only choose to upgrade their industries and develop new varieties, and adjust to the direction of "high, big and high", otherwise they will only have a "dead end".

3) the trend of cotton consumption in the future:

A) China's cotton consumption basically presents a basic rule of every 5 years.

B) after 2010-2015 years of rapid decline, China's cotton consumption has been accompanied by industrial upgrading in 2016-2020 years, and is expected to enter the new round of platform area as a whole. Consumption is expected to fluctuate around 6 million tons.

C) China's cotton consumption is influenced by multiple factors such as import yarn, chemical fiber substitution, product structure adjustment, product upgrading and terminal consumption slowdown.

The 2016-2025 year will be a new round of upgrading of the industry. With the implementation of China's new round of reform measures, the new bonus of the next development of China's textile industry will be fully established, and the industrial competitiveness will enter a new round of upgrading. The new growth pattern supported by technological innovation will basically take shape, and realize the pformation from a big textile country to a strong textile country.

Urbanization, along the way, Internet + and intelligent manufacturing, supply side reform and so on are expected new dividends.