Viscose Staple Fiber Price Trend In The Future

Epicycle Viscose Prices are not short-term seasonal increases, prices have long-term support factors, so optimistic about viscose staple fiber price trend in the next two years. Conservatively estimated that the average price in 2016 is 14000 yuan / ton, and the 2017 annual price is 15500 yuan / ton, up 9%/11% from the same period.

Viscose staple fiber started near full load, 18 years ago, the capacity was limited. The viscose industry has been hovering at the bottom for 4 years. 2015 years ago, the industry has stopped production due to environmental reasons, and the supply structure has obviously improved. At present, the operating rate has reached a high level of 93%. The remaining unopened capacity is unable to start due to environmental protection problems, and the actual effective operating rate is close to 100%. The 16-17 annual production capacity is only 3%, and the growth of downstream demand is steady, increasing by 5% annually. Current industry Stock At a low level, the G20 meeting will be a short-term catalyst for viscose prices.

Support for the formation of cotton prices, RMB depreciation expected to promote viscose exports and downstream Spin Demand has increased significantly. The bottoming of cotton prices and the soaring price of futures have strong support for the viscose price of cotton substitute. The devaluation of the RMB has an obvious effect on the export of viscose staple fibres, while the demand for textile trade in the lower reaches has increased by 2016. In the first quarter of this year, the volume of downstream cotton shipments increased by 246% over the same period last year.

High quality cotton supply gap, or enhance the proportion of viscose use. Because of the decline of cotton planting area and the reduction of high quality cotton, the use of recycled fiber is indirectly promoted. According to CIC estimates, as at 2015, the blending ratio of viscose staple fiber in downstream textile materials is about 10%. In the future, with the continuous improvement of viscose performance, the proportion of viscose staple fiber will reach 20% in 2035.

But we should pay attention to the potential risk, that is, viscose staple fiber production capacity exceeds expectations, and downstream textile demand is less than expected.