The Recent Abnormal Fluctuations In China's Stock Market Have Been Basically Stable.

This week, when the K line received three Lian Yang, and after standing on 3050 points, has it completed the self repair stage? Many people have such doubts, so they do not dare to do more than 3000 points. My answer is No.

From the longer time and space segment of the Japanese K-line chart, the market has been used for 6 months from 3056 points in January 8th to 3054 in July 15th this weekend. It has been in the 2638 point to 3097 o'clock more than 400 points, and it is mainly around the 2850 points up and down 100 points.

What is the concept of the 3054 closing index this week? It is only 3061 points of the closing index in December 17, 2014. Friday's 568 billion volume is also close to 580 billion 300 million of that day. That is to say, the index is just back to the level of the bull market before the 1 years and 7 months ago, and the high proportion of the huge capital distribution market has not yet prevailed.

Therefore, in my view, the 3000 point platform has just stood firm and the foundation is still very fragile. It can only be said that after a year of stock market crash, the market has just finished its stabilization stage, and it can not finish the self repair stage at all.

Some people regard the 3000 points on the market as A shares to complete the stage of self repair. If the market is over, the national team can quit. I think this view is far from the actual situation.

Do people remember that the closing index for the year before last was 3234 points. Last year Stock echange crash After the outbreak, the State Council held a rescue conference and decided to set up a 21 broker alliance to save the market, which was the 4527 point in June 25th. The more powerful rescue time position is the first bottom 3373 of the 1 stock market crash in July 9th, and the second bottom of the 4184 point drop is 3537. The bigger the time to save the market is the 2850 point in August 26th. The high point last December was 3684, and the closing index at the end of the year was 3539.

Therefore, in my view, it is by no means the 3000 point, at least 3500 to 3600, to mark the stage of self completion.

Even so, the 3500 point is 5178 points away from the stock market disaster, which is still 32.4%, which is 43% worse than the 6124 point before the 2008 financial crisis.

Economic growth is thriving in the world. Chinese stock market Even if it rises to 3500, it is very reluctant to say that it has completed self repair. Just because, after 3 rounds of stock market crash, A share investors are still in a state of panic, and they dare not have too much hope for China's stock market.

First of all, the current round of market quotation is not based on profits, but rather by profit.

Over the past year, management has released numerous positive news, but it has been seen as a bad thing by the market.

After undergoing a series of significant negative pressure tests, the market is still tenacious upward. We can see that the market has been depressed for a long time, and there is no need to fall. It has already had a strong demand for upward rebound. The huge energy accumulated can not help but erupt, so that many investors who have been waiting for the good to come out of Taiwan and then enter the market have lost more than 200 points.

Secondly, international and domestic asset shortage also guides more and more capital into the stock market to seek preservation and appreciation.

Recently, the international stock market has been blowout. Behind the recent surge in global stock markets, it is reflecting a difficult asset allocation problem: after the asset shortage of risk aversion bonds, the global Investment institution We can only take the second place and regard the stock market as a new safe haven.

A shares are also obviously infected by the international capital's rush to the stock market. In the low yields of P2P and financial products, A shares continued to stand on the 3000 spot for a long time, but the increase is still far less than that of the European and American stock markets.

Third, the strength of A shares is also related to investors' optimism about the economy.

On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that GDP growth in the two quarter was unchanged from the first quarter and remained 6.7%, thereby enhancing investor confidence.

Fourth, investors expect the stock market to be positive in the second half of the year. Such as Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, the pension market, lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate increase.

From this, I think that after repeated finishing on the 3000 point platform, the market is expected to challenge 2800 points - 3200 points of the upper edge of the box. After moderate adjustment, it is expected to add 3200 points to 3500 points. The possibility of repeated impact on the latter box is greater, but effective conquest is not easy.