Restoring Confidence In China'S Economy Can Boost The Economy.

In the "China macro economic forum" held by the national development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China, some economists believe that the signs of stabilization in the first half of the year show a downward pressure.

The key to steady growth in the second half of this year is to boost private investment.

Chen Yanbin, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University, explained that the signs of stabilization were mainly manifested in six aspects: first, the GDP ended the downward trend for three consecutive quarters; secondly, the nominal GDP growth rate picked up faster, and was higher than the actual GDP growth rate; three, the growth of consumption remained stable.

In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.3% over the same period last year. In June, this growth rate hit the highest level in the first half of the year, reaching 10.6%; four, the export narrowed narrowed; five, industrial production steadily increased; six, the continuous optimization of the economic structure.

In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 73.4%, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the third industry accounted for 54.1% of GDP, up 1.8% over the same period last year.

All these indicate that the economic operation has improved.

In the first half of this year, economic stabilization has already appeared.

Pressure can not be ignored.

In Chen Yanbin's view, the downward pressure can not be underestimated, either from the perspective of aggregate demand or from several dimensions of total price level, industry and leading indicators.

From the perspective of the total demand, the decline in investment growth, especially the decline in investment growth, will continue to increase.

Data show that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in China has declined for 3 consecutive months.

The rapid decline of private investment growth is still continuing, especially in the third industry, the growth rate of private investment in the first half is only 1.6%, and the northeast region even dropped 31.9%.

The growth rate of investment in real estate development and the two indicators of real estate development enterprises in place capital and commercial housing sales have seen a downward trend.

From the industry perspective, the manufacturing industry is still running poorly.

Industrial added value increased by 0.2% over the same period in June, but the growth rate of manufacturing value added was unchanged from last month.

In the manufacturing value-added, the fastest growing industry is the iron and steel industry with serious excess capacity.

"From the perspective of total price level, the CPI growth rate in June was down to a negative ratio, and PPI was negative compared to the same period last year.

The support force will be weakened, indicating that the economic stabilization is not yet stable.

Chen Yanbin said.

Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, also believes that the downward pressure in the second half of this year is still greater.

He said that in the three major needs, investment and exports may slow down, and consumption in the short term is unstable. In the long run, if income growth is lower than the growth of consumption, it will also have an impact on consumption.

Therefore, it is difficult to avoid a slight increase in downward pressure in the second half of the year.

In the face of continuing economic downside risks, the macroeconomic monthly data analysis report points out that the key to "steady growth" in the short term lies in the effective promotion of private investment.

"The main pressure on the current economic downturn comes from a marked slowdown in investment growth, and the core of the slowdown in investment growth is the decline in the growth rate of private investment, which accounts for 62% of the total investment in fixed assets.

Therefore, reversing the rapid decline of private investment has become the trend this year.

The key. "

Chen Yanbin said.

The analysis of the report shows that there are five reasons for the decline in private investment growth, including the financing difficulties, financing restrictions, the entry restrictions of the three industries such as finance, medical care, and pension. The private investment in the second industry investment has declined rapidly. The investment in the investment under the depreciation of the RMB is "hot inside the cold" and the market's willingness to invest in economic confidence has weakened.

In this regard, the report suggests accelerating financial reform, especially further deepening the reform of interest rate marketization, and further easing the market access restrictions of private investment.

Liu Yuanchun, executive director of the national development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University, also believes that another reason for the serious decline in private investment is the crowding out effect of strong investment from state-owned enterprises.

In his view, the solution to this problem depends on the next step in finding the balance between the two and finding new ideas instead of relying on old methods.

Ma Guangyuan, deputy director of the Economic Commission of the Central Committee of the people's Liberation Association, has different views on the decline of private investment.

He said that the current research findings on this issue still focus on the fact that the implementation of laws and regulations is not in place, there are problems in the pformation of government functions, financing is difficult to raise funds, and the cost of tax burden is heavy, and so on, but these are old problems. Why has private investment maintained high growth?