Reserves Are Far Below Market Expectations.

According to the relevant arrangements for the national cotton reserve rotation issued this year, under normal circumstances, the number of daily sales of reserve cotton is not more than 50 thousand tons, and if the sale rate of cotton reserves is over three days a week or more than 70%, the number of sales will be increased appropriately.

However, in the actual dumping process, the sales volume is far below the stipulated 50 thousand tons, which has become the core logic of the current cotton price soaring.

Then the reserve is far below market expectations. Is there anything else?

In fact, during the period from 2011 to 2014, in order to stabilize cotton production, Guo Chu had stored and sold domestic cotton for three consecutive years, and the purchase price in 2011 was 19800 yuan / ton, and the purchase price in 2012 and 2013 was 20400 yuan / ton.

As of May this year, before dumping, domestic

The quantity is still as high as 11 million tons. According to the estimated price of 20 thousand yuan per ton, the scale of its funds is as high as 220 billion yuan.

"Cotton storage time is too long, grades will also decline, so when it comes out of the warehouse, it will make a discount according to certain standards."

A Futures Company product developer in Zhengzhou told reporters in July 18th that at the same time plus capital costs and warehousing costs, the real cost of national cotton reserves is much higher than 20 thousand yuan.

However, since February 2011, domestic cotton prices have fallen for 5 consecutive years, and cotton prices have dropped from 9890 yuan / ton to 34870 yuan / ton at the highest time. The financial funds used for cotton storage and storage have shrunk dramatically, and the rise in cotton prices is undoubtedly conducive to reducing the loss of financial funds.

Since 2014, the state has abandoned the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, instead of directly subsidized farmers.

The key problem is that the subsidy policy of Xinjiang and the real estate area is inconsistent.

"Mainland cotton subsidy is 2000 yuan per ton, but

Subsidies did not set the upper limit, so there was a situation that cotton farmers in the mainland pported cotton to Xinjiang for sale, "Li Jifeng said.

Under the above background, the enthusiasm of cotton growers in the mainland has been severely frustrated, and the planting area has been reduced for three consecutive years.

Taking 2015 as an example, the total output of cotton in the whole year was 5 million 605 thousand tons, down 9.3% from 2014.

The situation has not improved this year. The main cotton producing areas in the Yellow River are

The area of planting decreased again.

The fundamental reason is that cotton prices continue downward, resulting in a decline in cotton farmers' income.

According to this trend, cotton also has the potential to become the second soybean, which is highly dependent on foreign imports, and cotton is also an important strategic material.

The most direct and effective way to solve these problems is to increase cotton prices, so as to enhance the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

"The profit margin of the textile industry is very low, generally only a few points, mainly rely on scale to win."

A Chengdu chemical fiber industry personage told reporters in July 15th, because foreign cotton yarn prices lower than domestic, this makes domestic textile exports in recent years under pressure.

At the same time, China is in the stage of industrial upgrading, and it does not rule out "abandoning and protecting cars".

This is not without precedent. During the period when cotton prices rose in 2009, the NDRC had conveyed the idea of "protecting cotton farmers" and "protecting textile enterprises".

"Traders were banned from participating in the auction of national cotton reserves, but now the restrictions are lifted. What is the purpose of putting traders in?"

Above chemical fiber personage thinks.