What Challenges And Risks Does China'S Economic Growth Face?

From the data, China's GDP growth rate is declining gradually, the growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of last year is 6.8%, and the growth rate of China's GDP in 2015 is 6.9%.

In the "L" trend of economic growth, whether we are at the bottom or whether economic growth will continue downward? What challenges and risks China's economic growth will face in the second half is worth our consideration.

For the first time in June, there was a folk phenomenon.

In negative growth, private investment in fixed assets increased by 2.8% in nominal terms in 1-6 months, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in 1-5 months, and fixed assets accounted for 61.5% of fixed assets in the country, 3.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

Private investment is an important engine to promote China's economic growth.

However, in recent years, the power of private investment in China has been weakening.

It is worth noting that the weakening of private investment takes more attention in the environment of constant growth of government's steady growth policy and investment in infrastructure and infrastructure.

One reason for the weakening of private investment is that in recent years, industrial products have been exported.

Continued decline, especially in some overcapacity industries, has seen a negative growth or even a loss in profits, which has largely affected the enthusiasm of private investment.

From the regional differences of private investment, we can see that the phenomenon of weak private investment is more serious in the northeast, central and western areas where excess capacity is serious.

In the first half of this year, the growth rate of private investment in the northeast region dropped by 31.9%, and the growth rate of private investment in the central and western regions was only 5.1% and 1.9% respectively.

Another reason is that too powerful state-owned enterprises have reduced the operating space of private enterprises. The northeastern region with state-owned enterprises as the main body is also the most vulnerable of private investment.

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At the level, although the policy is clear about the same treatment of private investment entities, there are still inequalities in the actual operation, and the requirements for private enterprise investment projects are more stringent.

These difficulties and problems have brought greater pressure to the growth of private investment.

In the second half of this year, I believe the government will step up efforts to solve this problem.

Capacity is still a challenge for China's economic growth.

This year, the price of coal and steel has obviously rebounded. On the one hand, this is the result of increasing social demand; on the other hand, it makes the newly increased capacity to increase the difficulty.

The rise in steel prices in the two quarter has led to a further increase in output, which will become a serious problem for the future steel production capacity policy.

In addition, with the development of capacity, the risk of debt default in the excess capacity industry will increase, and the debt default of state-owned enterprises will be a major challenge to China's economic development.

Back to the stock market, after a few weeks of rebound in July, the market was weak.

Previously, people had expected that A shares would have a breakthrough after 3000 points on the Shanghai Stock Index station. However, the breakthrough has not yet arrived, and it has killed the will of investors.

After the release of the macro data, the market expects that the central bank's monetary policy may act, but the expected effect is gradually fading away.

It is deduced that even if the loose policy is fulfilled, the market will lose its excitement in the short term.

There is an inherent demand for adjustment in the market.