RMB Appreciates Substantially

In the long run, the renminbi needs to avoid the repetition of the internationalization of the yen in the 80-90. The recent weakening of the US dollar has led to a passive appreciation of the renminbi and a basket of currencies against the renminbi. exchange rate The index is stable, mainly in yen. appreciation The drag reflects the willingness of the central bank to maintain the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate.

Under the macro Prudential environment of the central bank and the government, the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate is probably the primary objective of the current stage.

According to the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future, the report points out that from the macro environment, the ability and willingness of the central bank to pay, the RMB exchange rate in the three quarter remains stable, but there is still a downward pressure on the whole year.

Looking back to the yen in the 80-90 twentieth Century Internationalization Process, the report said:

Over the past 1985-1988 years, the yen / dollar appreciation rate exceeded 40%, which directly depressed export competitiveness, and more importantly, Japan's external investment position has shrunk by 40%. The decline of export competitiveness induces the rise and collapse of asset bubbles, and the lack of liquidity in Japan, which forces Japan to sell foreign investment, and its liquidity deficit eventually becomes a real loss.

According to Societe Generale Securities, from 1981 to 1999, the accumulated value of yen appreciation was more than 5% of GDP in a year.

Therefore, Societe Generale Securities pointed out that for China, a situation most needed to avoid is to repeat the mistakes of internationalization of the yen in the 80-90 century of twentieth Century. At the time when the exchange rate is at a low point, the internationalization of the currency will be promoted. In the process of internationalization, with the appreciation of the local currency, domestic funds will be forced to "sell high and sell low" overseas and eventually lead to serious damage.